Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

The UK MOD assessment is that the first day of the new Russian offensive made little headway on the ground

The famed Marshall Zhukov would have operated as follows:

Phase 1 is to attack evenly across the front in order to identify possible weak spots.
Phase 2 is to make equal, very focussed attacks at, say, the weakest three points.
Phase 3 is to put ALL your energy into the first point of the three which shows signs of collapse.

Also, once you are on the move, you precede the tanks with a massive rolling artillery barrage.
The tanks are accompanied by masses of infantry to protect them.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would not be at all surprised if the Moskva found its missile defence radars inexplicably jammed in the moments before they were hit by the Ukrainian missiles.

Indeed, the biggest question for me is why the ship seemed completely unable to defend itself from what should have been a fairly trivial attack. Wonder if we'll ever find out.

CNN have been saying that the Ukrainians distracted the Moskva with a drone on one side before the missiles approached on the other. They seem to think that the radar working on the one side meant that the radar on the other side didn't work either through lack of capacity or through a fault. The intelligence services and top military probably know but they aren't going to tell us.

[Vortex2]

I would not be at all surprised if the Moskva found its missile defence radars inexplicably jammed in the moments before they were hit by the Ukrainian missiles.

Indeed, the biggest question for me is why the ship seemed completely unable to defend itself from what should have been a fairly trivial attack. Wonder if we'll ever find out.

CNN have been saying that the Ukrainians distracted the Moskva with a drone on one side before the missiles approached on the other. They seem to think that the radar working on the one side meant that the radar on the other side didn't work either through lack of capacity or through a fault. The intelligence services and top military probably know but they aren't going to tell us.

So the P8 Poseidon just happened by pure chance to be in that area at that time?

[Vortex2]

Russia has successfully tested a new intercontinental nuclear ballistic missile as Vladimir Putin warned the Kremlin’s enemies to “think twice” about threatening his country.

The Russian defence ministry confirmed that its Sarmat missile had been launched on Wednesday from the Plesetsk launch facility in the north of the country.

Oh, wonderful.

[Default0ptions]

Well finally Stumuz-of-the-simple-questions has recognised that this is a proxy war.

It took you a while, but I do value your more sensible contributions.

The best outcome of this whole shit show is that all parties can end up with a mutually acceptable solution.

Just like sanity eventually prevailed in the Cuban missile crisis.

In the meantime we can try to deal with the catastrophic blowback of the ‘sanctions’ we imposed as best we can.

It was always an act of suicidal insanity for economies dependent on financial gimmickry to set themselves against those with access to actual physical resources.

[BritDownUnder]

I liked the Zhukov quote. Not sure if the Russians have masses of infantry anymore but it seems more like a conventional Soviet attack and there are supposedly fewer forests in this sector. Fate was not kind to Zhukov in the end as he was lucky to escape with his life post WW2. Modern Russian generals will no doubt take note.

I full agree it is a proxy war. Ukraine is being used as a proxy to evaluate the capability of Russia’s armed forces and they are being judged on their effectiveness.

The sinking of the Moskva will be analysed in detail, no doubt, and a lot of big ship navies will be learning lessons. A bit like the sinking of the INS Eilat in the 1960s. Seems like at the moment the Russians are finding themselves bound by the same rules as the Americans were in Korea and Vietnam regarding surveillance.

[Catweazle]

The best outcome of this whole shit show is that all parties can end up with a mutually acceptable solution.

Shortly after the start of the invasion there was an opportunity for Putin to withdraw and start negotiations about Ukraine becoming "neutral", with guarantees not to join NATO. Putin could have done this without appearing weak to his sparsely informed people.

That opportunity was squandered, and now the shelling has started in earnest I think it's unlikely to arise again.

The most likely outcome I can see is that Russia occupies a flattened strip of land right down Eastern Ukraine and digs in permanently. Eventually both sides will cease lobbing shells over the wire. The West is unlikely to send troops, but could send in big guns to defend the new "border". Russia will send back the deported Ukranians and fill the new land with loyal Russians.

Alternatively, Putin could try to bomb his way right across Ukraine - throwing large numbers of soldiers and armour against the Western supplied Ukraine army and waiting to see who blinks or runs out of bodies / missiles first. I think it's likely that the West will send heavy guns in an attempt to stop the advance, maybe with air cover. Maybe Ukraine gets cut in half before it stalls.

[Default0ptions]

There’s a possibility that the 40km static convoy towards Kiev drew things away and worked to make reinforcements to that line of contact.

The fact that it wasn’t torched from the skies says something about control of airspace.

But who knows or cares.

/me sighs

[PS_RalphW]

A lot of people care, especially those being bombed back into the stone age, or the half million reportedly forcibly deported to Russia.

A political analysis of the Russian leadership in the Guardian says that both the intelligence and military factions have egg on their faces, and Putin is so isolated in his paranoia he may still not be aware of just how badly the war is going. None of the factions want to end the war quickly with so little to show for it, as the fog of war helps disguise their incompetence and corruption, so it will drag on into bloody stalemate, much to the delight of the mic which must be ramping up production and Nato, which is seeing their old enemy decimated and their budgets ramped up.

It must be like the last days of Stalin in the Kremlin.

Of course, we ordinary people in the west will be a lot poorer, but gdp will increase so what could be better?

[Stumuz2]

Well finally Stumuz-of-the-simple-questions has recognised that this is a proxy war.

It took you a while, but I do value your more sensible contributions.

The best outcome of this whole shit show is that all parties can end up with a mutually acceptable solution.

Go back and attempt to answer the simple questions. You did not. You engaged in whataboutary, trying to spin the line we were all being beastly to poor little victim Putin. He is not a victim, he is a war crime monger of the first order.

As for the proxy war, it makes perfect sense for it to be a proxy war. Most wars start as proxy wars. On 15 March 1939, German troops marched into Czechoslovakia. They took over Bohemia, and established a protectorate over Slovakia. This was done to protect ethnic German speakers. It was a proxy for invasion and genocide. Move forward 83 years and Putin has invaded Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russian speakers in the Donbass. The invasion is a proxy for invasion and war crimes being committed.

The simple fact you have great difficulty with. Russia has invaded a sovereign country. They are committing war crimes.

When you illegaly invade and commit war crimes, you gift your enemies the advantage of testing their shiny new killing machines for free. Priceless R&D is being practiced, unleashed, and developed for free. No hazardous clean up bills, no expensive licensing, no regulatory approvals, an absolute gift.

So when you back the wrong horse just because they fit your armchair conspiracy theory, you have to answer a very simple question. Did Russia invade a sovereign country with military force? The answer is simple, but very difficult for you.

[Stumuz2]

Russia has successfully tested a new intercontinental nuclear ballistic missile as Vladimir Putin warned the Kremlin’s enemies to “think twice” about threatening his country.

The Russian defence ministry confirmed that its Sarmat missile had been launched on Wednesday from the Plesetsk launch facility in the north of the country.

Oh, wonderful.

Wouldn't worry about it Vortex

Germany has just announced the purchase of 35 nuclear armed F35's. There are more nukes to blow the planet 3 times over. Putin may use the odd battlefield nuke, but the worldwide opprobrium would be the end of him.

[UndercoverElephant]

The most likely outcome I can see is that Russia occupies a flattened strip of land right down Eastern Ukraine and digs in permanently. Eventually both sides will cease lobbing shells over the wire. The West is unlikely to send troops, but could send in big guns to defend the new "border". Russia will send back the deported Ukranians and fill the new land with loyal Russians.

This turn Russia into a giant version of North Korea. As a medium to long term outcome, it is absolutely catastrophic for Russia.

I think it's likely that the West will send heavy guns in an attempt to stop the advance,

That is already in the pipeline.

[UndercoverElephant]

so it will drag on into bloody stalemate, much to the delight of the mic which must be ramping up production and Nato, which is seeing their old enemy decimated..

For once the word "decimated" being used correctly!

[Default0ptions]

Correct. There are prescribed defences to invasion only.

So there are some circumstances in which a sovereign country can be allowed to invade another?

No.
You can only defend against an invasion.
An invasion is an act of aggression. A wrong.

It really is quite simple.

Iraq was going to invade us? Afghanistan was too? We undoubtedly invaded them.

It really is quite simple.

[Default0ptions]

Well finally Stumuz-of-the-simple-questions has recognised that this is a proxy war.

It took you a while, but I do value your more sensible contributions.

The best outcome of this whole shit show is that all parties can end up with a mutually acceptable solution.

Go back and attempt to answer the simple questions. You did not. You engaged in whataboutary, trying to spin the line we were all being beastly to poor little victim Putin. He is not a victim, he is a war crime monger of the first order.

As for the proxy war, it makes perfect sense for it to be a proxy war. Most wars start as proxy wars. On 15 March 1939, German troops marched into Czechoslovakia. They took over Bohemia, and established a protectorate over Slovakia. This was done to protect ethnic German speakers. It was a proxy for invasion and genocide. Move forward 83 years and Putin has invaded Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russian speakers in the Donbass. The invasion is a proxy for invasion and war crimes being committed.

The simple fact you have great difficulty with. Russia has invaded a sovereign country. They are committing war crimes.

When you illegaly invade and commit war crimes, you gift your enemies the advantage of testing their shiny new killing machines for free. Priceless R&D is being practiced, unleashed, and developed for free. No hazardous clean up bills, no expensive licensing, no regulatory approvals, an absolute gift.

So when you back the wrong horse just because they fit your armchair conspiracy theory, you have to answer a very simple question. Did Russia invade a sovereign country with military force? The answer is simple, but very difficult for you.

Five paragraphs of whataboutery. Try to stick to the simple questions.