Ukraine Watch...

[Default0ptions]

& what happened in 2014

In 2014 the USA spent $15 billion - umm - *meddling* in the Maidan Square events that overturned the democratically elected government of Ukraine.

There’s ample uncontested material available about this.

Are you denying this completely, or just denying that it might have any bearing on future relations?

[UndercoverElephant]

But unless the reasons that Russia felt were serious enough to cause them to invade Ukraine are seriously addressed, there will be no resolution to this.

"Russia" is a country, and countries don't feel things. This war is Putin's war, not Russia's. If Putin could be removed, the war would stop.

You are trying to sneak the premise "Putin's claims about Russia's grievances are objective" into the discussion, without examination. Russia has no moral right to claim sovereignty over Ukrainian territory, and no right to claim threatened by NATO. The only thing that was actually threatened was Putin's control over Ukraine.

[Default0ptions]

the war will continue until one side or other accepts defeat or a peaceful solution is found.

This statement is true of all wars, at all times. Everything else you wrote is unconnected to this fact.

“This fact” is all that I was seeking to establish, so thank you.

I’m sorry that you’re unable to make any connection to ‘everything else wrote’, but your inability to understand is just as irrelevant as your personal opinions are in seeking a genuine and lasting solution to the war.

[Catweazle]

This is, in no way, a David vs. Goliath fight.

That's exactly what it is - big, powerful Goliath expecting an easy victory is royally screwed by a smaller foe who has the tactics and weapon to nullify his advantage.

Nato will keep supplying weapons for as long as Putin has vehicles that need destroying. It's a Nato strategists wet dream - the whole balance of power could change.

[Default0ptions]

But unless the reasons that Russia felt were serious enough to cause them to invade Ukraine are seriously addressed, there will be no resolution to this.

"Russia" is a country, and countries don't feel things. This war is Putin's war, not Russia's. If Putin could be removed, the war would stop.

You are trying to sneak the premise "Putin's claims about Russia's grievances are objective" into the discussion, without examination. Russia has no moral right to claim sovereignty over Ukrainian territory, and no right to claim threatened by NATO. The only thing that was actually threatened was Putin's control over Ukraine.

Again - this is not about what *you* think or what I think. It’s not a philosophical debate.

“No right to claim threatened by NATO “

Really?

Craig Murray has a reasonably balanced article on his blog that’s worth a read.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... e/?amp=1

[UndercoverElephant]

the war will continue until one side or other accepts defeat or a peaceful solution is found.

This statement is true of all wars, at all times. Everything else you wrote is unconnected to this fact.

“This fact” is all that I was seeking to establish, so thank you.

I’m sorry that you’re unable to make any connection to ‘everything else wrote’, but your inability to understand is just as irrelevant as your personal opinions are in seeking a genuine and lasting solution to the war.

If it is true of all wars at all times, then there is no need to preface it with a load of claims that are specific to this war.

[UndercoverElephant]

But unless the reasons that Russia felt were serious enough to cause them to invade Ukraine are seriously addressed, there will be no resolution to this.

"Russia" is a country, and countries don't feel things. This war is Putin's war, not Russia's. If Putin could be removed, the war would stop.

You are trying to sneak the premise "Putin's claims about Russia's grievances are objective" into the discussion, without examination. Russia has no moral right to claim sovereignty over Ukrainian territory, and no right to claim threatened by NATO. The only thing that was actually threatened was Putin's control over Ukraine.

Again - this is not about what *you* think or what I think. It’s not a philosophical debate.

“No right to claim threatened by NATO “

Really?

Craig Murray has a reasonably balanced article on his blog that’s worth a read.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... e/?amp=1

If Putin could be removed, the war would stop. It is Putin's war. It is Putin who feels threatened. Not Russia.

[Stumuz2]

So tell me; is one sovereign country allowed to invade another?

No.
It's called a war of aggression.

No sovereign country can ever be allowed to invade another? It’s a simple question.

Correct. There are prescribed defences to invasion only.

[Default0ptions]

No.
It's called a war of aggression.

No sovereign country can ever be allowed to invade another? It’s a simple question.

Correct. There are prescribed defences to invasion only.

So there are some circumstances in which a sovereign country can be allowed to invade another?

[Stumuz2]

No sovereign country can ever be allowed to invade another? It’s a simple question.

Correct. There are prescribed defences to invasion only.

So there are some circumstances in which a sovereign country can be allowed to invade another?

No.
You can only defend against an invasion.
An invasion is an act of aggression. A wrong.

It really is quite simple.

[Mark]

In 2014 the USA spent $15 billion - umm - *meddling* in the Maidan Square events that overturned the democratically elected government of Ukraine.
There’s ample uncontested material available about this.
Are you denying this completely, or just denying that it might have any bearing on future relations?

Russia was also 'meddling' in Ukraine at that time - probably more so....
and in Belarus, and in all the other ex Soviet Republics, and further afield....
They also meddled in US elections and the Brexit vote...
That's what all the big powers do - 'meddle'....

Putin was just 'sore' that the meddling didn't work this time, so he ordered an invasion, which is totally unacceptable - simples
Even if they capture some land, it will be totally scorched and the few remaining people resentful...
They're paying a very high price for very little gain...

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine is reporting that the new offensive in Donbas has begun. The targeting of weapons factories indicates that Russia is prepared for a long war and has given up hope of any future exports from those factories, from either a peaceful Ukraine, or by conquest, even if they previously supplied arms or spare parts to Russia.

Ukraine reports that Mariapol is being depopulated by forced deportation to Russian held territory of at least 40,000 people. At least this reduces the risk of civilian casualities if Ukraine manages to mount a counter attack.

Estimates for the number of casualities from the sinking of the Moskva vary between 40 and over 400, depending on how quickly the ship sank. Reports of
200 sailors suffering serious burns and photos of survivors on parade suggest the figure is towards the lower end of that range. The official figure is still zero.

[Vortex2]

In conflict the casually ratios are usally:
1/3rd dead
1/3rd severely injured
1/3rd lightly injured

Assuming 400 casualties that would suggest around 133 dead and around 133 severley injured

We have heard of around 200 badly burned which is bit high .. but a burning ship isn't the same as army combat.

Overall maybe we are looking at 100 dead.

[UndercoverElephant]

In conflict the casually ratios are usally:
1/3rd dead
1/3rd severely injured
1/3rd lightly injured

Assuming 400 casualties that would suggest around 133 dead and around 133 severley injured

We have heard of around 200 badly burned which is bit high .. but a burning ship isn't the same as army combat.

Overall maybe we are looking at 100 dead.

That is all meaningless speculation. We have no idea.

[Vortex2]

That is all meaningless speculation. We have no idea.

Statistical methods can actually give useful hints.

For example, life assurances fees are based on historical death data based on your current age, gender, location, profession etc etc.

Military casualties are no different.