Competition: when will price of oil reach $70 per barrel?

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 26 Sep 2005, 00:50

Well the 50dMA DID provide support on that occassion but it looks to me like it will fail this time and we'll be back in the 50s next week!

nancy · Post by **nancy** » 26 Sep 2005, 07:58

Damian, I think the guys over at www.theoildrum.com definitely need your help in their latest discussion on oil prices.

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 26 Sep 2005, 09:26

I don't think a drop in the price of wti is unrealistic.

With some refinaries closed, most gasoline demand met by euro imports and the market awash with good quality crude from the spr I would not be at all suprised to see downward pressure on the main light-sweet price.

Of course, this current reserve-tapping merry-go-round won't last forever, or even more than a few weeks.....

We need a Powerswitch joint trading scheme - buying crude furtures while they are in the high 50s might generate a nice PO-prepation windfall before years-end

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 28 Sep 2005, 11:35

I've split the remaining posts on this topic into "PowerSwitch Oil Trading Club?"

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=800

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 03 Nov 2005, 13:46

My prediction of the price falling into the 50s was way off in time but eventually came true towards the end of the month. Next event to watch (from a TA perspective) is interaction with the 200mda

We've now lost half of the contestants - here's the remainder (blackaddr where are you?):

Bandidoz.........10 Nov 05
snowhope.......11 Nov 05
SherryMayo.....15 Nov 05
grinu...............16 Nov 05
nancy..............28 Nov 05
blackaddr........01 Dec 05
Koba...............25 Dec 05
peaky..............10 Jan 06
DamianB.........12 Jan 06
revdode..........14 Feb 06

Contract is spot month NYMEX WTI future
Price basis is closing

Price graph here

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 03 Nov 2005, 14:32

Am i too late?

I will go for May 22nd 2006

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 04 Nov 2005, 19:36

I'm afraid you are - it would be unfair to those who put in their bids as early as June (before the forums were zapped!)

When the price hits $70 in January

, we'll start another competition.

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 14 Dec 2005, 12:33

After struggling around it for a fortnight, the price seems to have left the 200dma behind and moved smartly above the 50dma setting the scene for an exciting finale to this contest.

Some commentators in the US are attributing the lastest rise over $60 to an increasingly cold winter with more to come:

A weather expert says December 2005 is on pace to become one of the 10 coldest in more than 100 years, despite claims at a global conference on climate change this week that the Earth is getting warmer.

Joe Bastardi, senior meteorologist with Accuweather.com, says present weather patterns across the country show below-normal temperatures in the single digits, with still colder air forecast in the coming weeks.

All told, he said, "the current look and pace may bring December 2005 in as a top 10 month for cold Decembers nationwide since the late 1800s."

Some examples of the abnormally cold temps include: Omaha, Neb., (17.5 degrees below normal); Indianapolis, Ind., (14.1 degrees below normal); Chicago, Ill., (13.9 degrees below normal); and Denver, Colo., (11.9 degrees below normal).

"The cold is widespread, with below-normal temperatures recorded from eastern Washington and Oregon south into Texas and into the Northeast," said the weather service.

And it could get worse. Accuweather.com "is forecasting another week of unseasonably cold weather, with the potential for another major snowstorm developing on Wednesday."

We've only four contestants left:

Koba...............25 Dec 05
peaky..............10 Jan 06
DamianB.........12 Jan 06
revdode..........14 Feb 06

Contract is spot month NYMEX WTI future
Price basis is closing

Price graph here

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 14 Dec 2005, 12:46

DamianB wrote:I'm afraid you are - it would be unfair to those who put in their bids as early as June (before the forums were zapped!)

When the price hits $70 in January , we'll start another competition.

Ah well never mind, it was nothing scientific it was only my birthday

BTW, didn't oil hit $70 in August?

DamianB · Post by **DamianB** » 14 Dec 2005, 12:49

It did but only intra-day and the contest is based on closing prices.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 14 Dec 2005, 13:03

DamianB wrote:It did but only intra-day and the contest is based on closing prices.

ahhhhhh......that damn small print

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 06 Jan 2006, 15:57

Still three in the running...

peaky..............10 Jan 06
DamianB.........12 Jan 06
revdode..........14 Feb 06

I'm betting on revdode.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 06 Jan 2006, 16:27

Perhaps we can reopen the betting when Valentine's day arrives?

Post by **clv101** » 06 Jan 2006, 18:40

Maybe also another book on the highest and lowest prices achieved for 2006.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 06 Jan 2006, 20:37

Eeek, we just hit $64.30