Israel and Hezbollah edge closer to all-out war

[clv101]

For all the missiles used, the actual impact seems pretty minimal. These MRBM just aren't that effective, many intercepted, relatively small payloads and imprecise targeting. From Iran's point of view, seems like a lot of effort/expense for little result.

[Mark]

Iran and her allies are better suited to asymmetric warfare - guerilla tactics, drones, house-to-house combat etc.
Their big advantage is the vast number of people they can call to arms...
They're never going to win a conventional battle of planes, missiles, tanks etc.

At times like this, I choose to watch some of Al Jazeera's coverage....
It's surprising good and although slanted, reasonably balanced (although they have been banned from Israel...)
They say things that you don't hear on other channels - for example, Iran has said that if Israel hits their oil infrastructure, they'll respond by attacking western oil infrastructure in the Gulf, wherever it may be.......

[BritDownUnder]

I was watching Channel 4 who had the Indian newsreader guy, whose name I have forgotten, in Beirut interviewing an Iranian who was close to the Iranian regime, who took great exception to his government being called a regime rather than by its proper title.

Threats about oil rather than real attacks are good in my opinion as they will ever-so-slowly make the transition to EVs that more of a certainty.

Personally I would go for their infrastructure such as electricity and government buildings such as spy HQ as they (Iranians or their proxies) specifically said they were attacking the Israeli spy HQ a few days ago. Or maybe Mossad are getting too much intelligence from there to blow it up. Or maybe there are too many juicy Iranian targets in Lebanon and Syria to bother with Iran just now.

The fall (or should that be circular error probable) of the missiles seemed very poor with a few landing in what looked like the sea. One hopes the capability of the missiles has been judged better.

[UndercoverElephant]

This thread is now out of date. Israel is engaged with Hezbollah on the ground. This is a new front in the war. Hezbollah are ready and willing to fight.

God help us if Trump wins.

[BritDownUnder]

Trump might just be full of bluster over this. He is better off planning tariffs on China and bringing industry back to the US although employers are already reported having problems getting employees to arrive on time and not stoned.

Meanwhile a possible Darwin Award nominee has emerged.

From the Jerusalem Post...

An 18-year-old Palestinian was reportedly killed by the explosion of his own weapon barrel during the celebrations that took place on Tuesday night in the Tulkarm Camp West Bank refugee camp, Army Radio reported on Wednesday.

[Ralphw2]

Israel is facing its own demographic problems. Much of their wealth comes from their high tech industries (not least weapons exports and intelligence services) and these rely on a small but highly educated workforce, many of which are recent immigrants attracted by the money and lifestyle. However, the ever growing threat and now warfare is beginning to reverse the flow into a brain drain as the elite see no future for their children. The economy is not helped by the growing numbers of religiously educated ultra orthodox young men (who have been until recently exempt from conscription) who do not get a scientific or mathematical education and are pretty useless except for stealing land in the West Bank. I suspect this war is happening now because in 10 years Israel will not have the skilled workforce or military personnel to fight it then.

Of course, in 10 years there will be another generation of even more angry Muslims in the area, and less Israelis of fighting age.

[BritDownUnder]

Israel is facing its own demographic problems. Much of their wealth comes from their high tech industries (not least weapons exports and intelligence services) and these rely on a small but highly educated workforce, many of which are recent immigrants attracted by the money and lifestyle. However, the ever growing threat and now warfare is beginning to reverse the flow into a brain drain as the elite see no future for their children. The economy is not helped by the growing numbers of religiously educated ultra orthodox young men (who have been until recently exempt from conscription) who do not get a scientific or mathematical education and are pretty useless except for stealing land in the West Bank. I suspect this war is happening now because in 10 years Israel will not have the skilled workforce or military personnel to fight it then.

Of course, in 10 years there will be another generation of even more angry Muslims in the area, and less Israelis of fighting age.

I am pretty sure that the Israeli birthrate is slightly higher than that of the Palestinians - I say slightly. Israel has a large population of Haredi or ultra-orthodox Jews who leave the Gazans standing in the birthrate race. Problem is is that they are exempt from military service and don't generally fight and are generally not really that economically active except for stealing Palestinian land in the West Bank.

As for industry I think some of my garden furniture is made in Israel, the greenhouse and the storage box. Not all high tech and I think they pioneered drip irrigation and remember Jaffa oranges?

You are right about the angry Muslims being there, excluding the ones who have gone to invade the West by illegal immigration and asylum seeking. I am not sure how they will stop that but I do know there was a 1950s missile/warhead in the US arsenal called the Honest John that had a 10 ton warhead yield but would kill people in about 150 metres radius with the radiation alone not the blast - maybe they will wave that at the Muslim hordes when they start crossing the border.

[clv101]

Sounds like a cobalt bomb, replacing some of the steel cladding with cobalt, 'salting' it, such that as the neutrons are absorbed cobalt-60 is produced. This then gets atomised and spread over a large area releasing a lot of gamma radiation as it decays with a 5 year half life. A relatively small amount of cobalt produces enough radiation to kill pretty much everyone within the fallout area.

It's never been tested and as far as is public knowledge a cobalt bomb has never been operationalised.

[Mark]

Not all high tech and I think they pioneered drip irrigation ?

Yes, they're defo ahead of the game on irrigation....
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2023/4/30/ ... l-gardens/

Even though our water situation is a lot easier, not sure why we don't adopt this kind of tech....

[BritDownUnder]

I have a drip irrigation system around all the garden and it is great. I think each hole (they are about 30 cm apart on the pipe) is rated at delivery of 2 litres/hour at a certain water pressure. I plant a few seeds under each hole. I use about 250 litres per day for all the irrigation in my garden and in the last three years it has been entirely from rain water not tap water.

I am not sure what the Honest John was but at its minimum range it could kill its user unless they took shelter right after launch. It was literally a nuclear bazooka, though not quite hand held.

Israel is really painting itself into a corner here and they really should have took the 1991 Oslo deal even though it would have given them a very long and difficult to defend border.

[Mark]

Israel is really painting itself into a corner here and they really should have took the 1991 Oslo deal even though it would have given them a very long and difficult to defend border.

Netanyahu ain't looking at the Oslo Accords or any other way to de-escalate this...
He thinks he's got the upper hand, so is looking to add fuel to the fire, not reduce it...
Plus, the longer this goes on, the further he delays the criminal investigations and his indictment...

[UndercoverElephant]

Israel is really painting itself into a corner here and they really should have took the 1991 Oslo deal even though it would have given them a very long and difficult to defend border.

Netanyahu ain't looking at the Oslo Accords or any other way to de-escalate this...
He thinks he's got the upper hand, so is looking to add fuel to the fire, not reduce it...
Plus, the longer this goes on, the further he delays the criminal investigations and his indictment...

Netanyahu has made a fundamental mistake if he thinks Israel can "win" by militarily subduing all of its many enemies. This only produces a short-term win. Those enemies won't go away in the longer term.

[mr brightside]

Those enemies won't go away in the longer term.

If nothing else, because Israel is effectively surrounded.

[UndercoverElephant]

Those enemies won't go away in the longer term.

If nothing else, because Israel is effectively surrounded.

But that is exactly why the only way Israel can ever have a secure future is if it recognises its own responsibility for creating the current situation. The reason the October 7th attacks happened was because of the way Israel itself has behaved for decades. Israel does not just "defend itself". It has for decades had policies of territorial expansion and the strategic denial of statehood for Palestine -- the rejection of a two state solution. That isn't just because it is effectively surrounded, but because of the mindset of Zionism.

I have spent more time than most people trying to understand the deep origins of this conflict, which did not begin with the Holocaust. It has been going on for as long as Judaism has existed. The root cause is Judaism itself, because it is a form of religious supremacism. This is why the Jewish rejection of Jesus as Messiah was so significant -- not "the Jews killed Jesus" but that those Jews who chose to remain Jews instead of accepting the need for non-supremacist, universal monotheism (ie NO "chosen people", no penis butchery) were effectively condemning the whole world to the level of unresolvable religious conflict that we have now.

[mr brightside]

Those enemies won't go away in the longer term.

If nothing else, because Israel is effectively surrounded.

That isn't just because it is effectively surrounded, but because of the mindset of Zionism.

I think it was Einstein who said "you can't solve a problem using the same level of thinking that created it".

The irony there is that for some reason the Hebrew university of Jerusalem owns all the rights to Albert Einstein!