Gulf Stream slow down causes Australian floods

[kenneal - lagger]

New modelling of the slow down and stopping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Gulf Stream to most people, shows that this would cause continuous La Nina conditions in Australia. This is continuous heavy rain causing extensive flooding.

[Catweazle]

Predictions of UK temperature drop by 3 to 4 C have been around for a while, but the effects on rainfall here could be more serious.

Even more concerning, is the effect a Gulf Stream collapse might have on rainfall. During the growing season, the researchers found that precipitation might drop by as much as 123 mm – enough to reduce the UK’s percentage of arable land from 32% to just 7%.

This would have profound impacts on the agricultural industry, with the level of irrigation required to offset this rainfall reduction coming to an estimated cost of ten times the value of the crops produced.

https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/tren ... apses.html

[kenneal - lagger]

Idiot economists again. Assuming that in a world of profound weather changes that food production problems in one country would be made up for by production increases in another as "market signals" indicate an increase. Nicolas Stern, in his book Why Are We Waiting, said that economists are missing the point that the profound changes that climate change will cause will have a drastic effect worldwide and the market won't function as it says it will in their textbooks.

The cost of irrigation will have to be gauged against the world wide increase in food prices as the weather disruptions will be worldwide. There will also be increases in food costs due to the disruption to world trade caused by increases in sea level making existing ports gradually unusable. There will be increases in food prices as the world food market shuts down as countries protect their food growing for home consumption.

There is also the point that if we have less rainfall we won't have enough water for large scale irrigation anyway. The south east already has less rainfall per head of population than the Lebanon. There are already thoughts of building canals from the north and west into the south east to provide water for the current population. Add on the increased population required to satisfy the economists insatiable demand for economic growth and we will run out of water in the south east before any widespread changes in our weather happen.

The more I hear tales like the one above the more I'm convinced that government economists should be removed from their offices and put out into the fields to work so that they can learn some of the realities of life. I was contemplating a worse fate for them but decided that I shouldn't incite violence on a public forum!

[BritDownUnder]

New modelling of the slow down and stopping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Gulf Stream to most people, shows that this would cause continuous La Nina conditions in Australia. This is continuous heavy rain causing extensive flooding.

I found the recent rains in Australia quite annoying and bad for the solar but there was an approximately 30% increase in food exports by value from Australia in the recent wet years.

[kenneal - lagger]

It will be a toss up between the increased value of food exports and the costs to the wider community of increased frequency and level of flooding.

[Catweazle]

Maybe the food products are 30% dearer than they were a few years ago.

[Potemkin Villager]

..... The south east already has less rainfall per head of population than the Lebanon. There are already thoughts of building canals from the north and west into the south east to provide water for the current population.........

Interesting to see how this pans out. One can envisage a situation where the sunny south east is held to leveling up ransome
for water by the north of England (not to mention Scotland and Wales). In fact I believe Manchester gets its water from a reservoir in Wales already. I don't imagine it will be given away in a water scarce future. If forced through without reasonable recompense they would be easy to sabotage.

[Catweazle]

..... The south east already has less rainfall per head of population than the Lebanon. There are already thoughts of building canals from the north and west into the south east to provide water for the current population.........

Interesting to see how this pans out. One can envisage a situation where the sunny south east is held to leveling up ransome
for water by the north of England (not to mention Scotland and Wales). In fact I believe Manchester gets its water from a reservoir in Wales already. I don't imagine it will be given away in a water scarce future. If forced through without reasonable recompense they would be easy to sabotage.

Wales is an exporter of water and electricity, a point that isn't lost on Plaid Cymru.

[clv101]

There's nuance in that statement though. Sure, Wales is a net exporter of electricity. But, how is that electricity generated? Through power stations and wind turbines built with foreign (non-Welsh) investment capital in most cases. For the gas power stations, maybe built with Eon (for example) capital with the gas paid for from customers in England? The physical location of the power station is one of the least important characteristics.

[Catweazle]

There's nuance in that statement though. Sure, Wales is a net exporter of electricity. But, how is that electricity generated? Through power stations and wind turbines built with foreign (non-Welsh) investment capital in most cases. For the gas power stations, maybe built with Eon (for example) capital with the gas paid for from customers in England? The physical location of the power station is one of the least important characteristics.

Those are the points that Plaid is not so keen to remember.