Initiation wrote:As of 9am 12 March 2020, a total of 29,764 people have been tested:
29,174 negative
590 positive
590 positive : My model yesterday suggested 551 for today.
Still a good exponential fit with R*R = 0.99
(These daily figures wander around a bit 'tho)
mine was 575.
The exponential growth curve is a hell of thing. the difference between 575 and 590 has just added an extra predicted million on at May 1st
We are definitely going to hit peak infection before April is up with a concomitant collapse of the NHS under the strain in the absence of the government doing something really really major right now.
Last edited by Little John on 12 Mar 2020, 15:10, edited 2 times in total.
UndercoverElephant wrote:There is talk now about closures of air space and the entire aviation industry being threatened not only with bankruptcy but a permanent reduction in air travel. "The end of corporate air travel".
Its not as if they couldn't have had conferencing over networks since windows 3.1 back in 94, just that the scum who get to choose are 'worth a business class jolly' at the [limited option] customers expense - since the gov makes real free market, competitive, business difficult.
UndercoverElephant wrote:There is talk now about closures of air space and the entire aviation industry being threatened not only with bankruptcy but a permanent reduction in air travel. "The end of corporate air travel".
See also my post abut Boeing in the Transport forum. Not a pretty sight.
Mind you, with this and cruise liners grinding to a halt, at least CO2 emissions will at least slow..
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
18 huge instant hospital ships. Excellent! And Carnival, Holland and the others. All those spare isolated beds might soon come in very handy - if only they remember to switch off the aircon and have the food packages made onshore.
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
18 huge instant hospital ships. Excellent! And Carnival, Holland and the others. All those spare isolated beds might soon come in very handy - if only they remember to switch off the aircon and have the food packages made onshore.
Only patients in windowed cabins please. Use the internals for storage
Little John wrote:By the end of April, there are going to be 7 million people requiring intensive care beds.
Well... yeah... But the Hospital Ships buy us three valuable hours for accommodating 0.2% of the recuperating cases still requiring isolation. Once recovered, the ex-patients then work their return 737 ticket home by putting in orderly chores, bringing food etc.
When you're dealing with exponential growth, the time to act is when it feels too early.
Bedrock Barney wrote:Hello all. Aeons since I last posted on powerswitch although I do call in from time to time to keep up to date.
I work in the construction industry and it's all looking very wobbly out there. Contracts being postponed, contractors getting jittery. I forecast lots of pain going forward. We'll be ok (small husband and wife consultancy with no employees and no debt) but many won't.
Most pertinent question - do i go to London tomorrow for a meeting (using the tube)? I think I know the answer to this
Welcome back.
I would postpone or cancel the London meeting. Unless very important, in which case cycle, walk, or take a taxi. None of which eliminate the risk, but seem much lower risk than the crowded and ill ventilated underground.
I've cancelled. Hopefully we won't be sacked!
We demand that reality be altered because we don't like it [� oilslick ]
raspberry-blower wrote:Can't you do a conference call thingy or does it have to be a face to face meeting? I am presuming the answer will be the latter.
Interesting to hear what you are saying about the construction industry. Are any of the wobbling companies large corporations? I can think of a couple of companies that may not ride this one out.
Skype meeting is being discussed. Hate the things - it's impossible to properly interact for 3 or 4 hours (which is how long the meetings usually last for)
Regarding the construction industry, at the moment we are seeing clients putting things on hold. It won't take long to filter through to the contractors. I expect to get calls soon with people looking for tender opportunities.
We demand that reality be altered because we don't like it [� oilslick ]
Little John wrote:By the end of April, there are going to be 7 million people requiring intensive care beds.
Well... yeah... But the Hospital Ships buy us three valuable hours for accommodating 0.2% of the recuperating cases still requiring isolation. Once recovered, the ex-patients then work their return 737 ticket home by putting in orderly chores, bringing food etc.
UndercoverElephant wrote:There is talk now about closures of air space and the entire aviation industry being threatened not only with bankruptcy but a permanent reduction in air travel. "The end of corporate air travel".
Its not as if they couldn't have had conferencing over networks since windows 3.1 back in 94, just that the scum who get to choose are 'worth a business class jolly' at the [limited option] customers expense - since the gov makes real free market, competitive, business difficult.
In the 90s I worked for a major firm in Munich which has a custom built high tech videoconferencing room with multiple cameras allocated to each of the 10 or so seats around the table. Comms were provided by satellite links.
I used it once in seven years - but flew to clients or our other offices maybe three times a week. It was clear that senior staff wanted to go on 'jollies' far more than use the high tech.
Bedrock Barney wrote:Hello all. Aeons since I last posted on powerswitch although I do call in from time to time to keep up to date.
I work in the construction industry and it's all looking very wobbly out there. Contracts being postponed, contractors getting jittery. I forecast lots of pain going forward. We'll be ok (small husband and wife consultancy with no employees and no debt) but many won't.
Most pertinent question - do i go to London tomorrow for a meeting (using the tube)? I think I know the answer to this
Welcome back.
I would postpone or cancel the London meeting. Unless very important, in which case cycle, walk, or take a taxi. None of which eliminate the risk, but seem much lower risk than the crowded and ill ventilated underground.
I've cancelled. Hopefully we won't be sacked!
We've had 3 face to face meetings cancelled, 2 were done via skype and the third postponed as it's a software demo and relatively unimportant. We've also had a site inspection cancelled but I'm unsure whether this is related to the virus. Skype can be quite useful, especially if you need to discuss drawings etc.
