General Election Dec 2019 thread

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 10 Dec 2019, 21:33

Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) Tweeted:
NEW MRP model from Focaldata:

CON 337
LAB 235
SNP 41
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
BXP 0
Speaker 1

CON majority 24

#GE2019 https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1 ... 88738?s=20

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 10 Dec 2019, 22:04

Net 40 seat swing to Labour. Not quite enough, but I'd be worried if I was Boris Johnson.

Like all predictions our model comes with some uncertainty, and the margin of error here could put the final number of Conservative seats from 311 to 367.

Post by **clv101** » 10 Dec 2019, 23:23

Lord Beria3 wrote:SNP will face a shock in Scotland by a surging Scottish Tories.

No chance, Tories are losing several seats to the SNP in Scotland. Brexit and Johnson combine to a toxic mix up there.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 Dec 2019, 08:19

We will see. Same was said prior to 2017 ge.

The polls were wrong but ian smart was right!

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 11 Dec 2019, 08:30

As per yougov post election analysis of the 2017 result...

We underestimated the extent to which voters would vote for the Conservatives and Labour relative to the other parties, so both major parties slightly overperformed our predicted vote shares.Â We overestimated the SNP, which meant that a disproportionate number of our seat errors were in Scotland (13 of 43).Â Still, our 95 percent confidence interval for SNP seats in Scotland of 30-53 did include the actual result of 35 SNP seats.Â We will never be able to get everything exactly right, so it is important to provide measures of uncertainty in estimates. We consider estimates within the reported confidence intervals to be successful, even if the estimate gives a different winner.Â

They screwed up badly in Scotland. I think they will do the same again.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 09:36

These "weighted" and "adjusted" polls are bullshit. They are bullshit either to hide the fact that the people surveyed are not sufficiently representative of the wider population or because the poll companies are lying in order to manipulate the wider population's perceptions of the relative popularity and electoral prospects of political parties.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 10:29

Little John wrote:These "weighted" and "adjusted" polls are bullshit. They are bullshit either to hide the fact that the people surveyed are not sufficiently representative of the wider population or because the poll companies are lying in order to manipulate the wider population's perceptions of the relative popularity and electoral prospects of political parties.

I think they are trying to do something that is basically impossible. You cannot survey less than 2000 people and then apply arbitrary "weightings" to the data and expect to come up with meaningful results for a national vote share in a general election. I am tending towards believing they should be banned during election campaigns. They help nobody.

What makes it worse is that when somebody or organisation does some other sort of straw poll - just go out on the street and ask random people - they take care to explain how unscientific it is. This implies that the official polls are scientific, and they are nothing of the sort.

I have very little idea what tomorrow's result will be. Could be anything from a 40 seat tory majority to a deeply hung parliament. I have more faith in the exit poll, but even that is likely to be 20-30 seats out.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 10:56

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -candidate

Tories open second investigation into Hastings candidate

Sally-Ann Hart faces inquiries over alleged Islamophobia and antisemitism

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 11:01

UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -candidate

Tories open second investigation into Hastings candidate

Sally-Ann Hart faces inquiries over alleged Islamophobia and antisemitism

Nobody cares about this shit other than political minutia obsessives and political shills hoping to score quick and cheap political points.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 11:47

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -candidate

Tories open second investigation into Hastings candidate

Sally-Ann Hart faces inquiries over alleged Islamophobia and antisemitism
Nobody cares about this shit other than political minutia obsessives and political shills hoping to score quick and cheap political points.

It could lose her a few hundred votes, and that may well be enough to swing the result.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 15:14

Corbyn has written an article and done an interview for a local paper myself and my wife helped set up:

https://www.hastingsindependentpress.co ... e-outcome/

The other guy in the picture (with Corbyn) is a good friend of mine.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 16:30

While you Tory and Labour supporter get all excited about the result of tomorrows non-event election, I might note that it will merely be the next stage in the psychological warfare operation to break the people into submitting to EU rule by virtue of accepting that the politicians will never let us leave the empire. A vote for Tweedle Dee, Tweedle Dum, or Tweedle Dumber still means the bourgeois europhiles get in.

We left democratically three and a half years ago. It is clearly going to take more than crosses on ballot papers to enact our will. A growing portion of the population know that now. This is the future that is being sown.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 18:05

Tomorrow is not a non-event. It's the most important election since the war.

Democracy may be dying, but this is not some sort of show election of the sort that happens in some other countries. There is still a chance that Corbyn will become Prime Minister before the year is out. Not the most likely outcome, but far from impossible.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Dec 2019, 18:37

UndercoverElephant wrote:Tomorrow is not a non-event. It's the most important election since the war.

Democracy may be dying, but this is not some sort of show election of the sort that happens in some other countries. There is still a chance that Corbyn will become Prime Minister before the year is out. Not the most likely outcome, but far from impossible.

A show election is precisely what it is.

Additionally, I also take note of your cavalier, not to mention oxymoronic, attitude to the dying of democracy with your simultaneously laughable belief that this is the "most important election since the war".

The vote was, is and will always be the most revolutionary weapon the ordinary person ever possesses.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Dec 2019, 18:58

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:Tomorrow is not a non-event. It's the most important election since the war.

Democracy may be dying, but this is not some sort of show election of the sort that happens in some other countries. There is still a chance that Corbyn will become Prime Minister before the year is out. Not the most likely outcome, but far from impossible.
A show election is precisely what it is.

Additionally, I also take note of your cavalier, not to mention oxymoronic, attitude to the dying of democracy with your simultaneously laughable belief that this is the "most important election since the war".

The vote was, is and will always be the most revolutionary weapon the ordinary person ever possesses.

I have no idea what point you are trying to make.