Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 26 Feb 2019, 22:48

This is a coup, of the ruling class against the people and their democratic rights. The British people were told quite clearly in 2016, "The government will implement what you decide".

If Brexit is usurped, what comes next in the coming years in this country is going to be pretty bloody dark. Because one of two things will happen.

Either we are going to see the far right democratically ushered on on a wave of populist revolt.

Or, we will see the gloves come fully off and the entire UK turned into nationwide version of NI during the troubles. Troops on the streets to keep the people down and all the rest of it.

It's already happening in France. Coming to this nation in due course.

It didn't have to be this way. It may still not be. But, it looks like what is coming.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 27 Feb 2019, 10:42

Wise article from http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/02 ... o-the-real

There is no change in strategy. As ever - indeed since the very beginning of this process two years ago - she understands that the only positive quality her deal contains is the fact it is better than no-deal. Once we go past May without holding elections, the cliff edge becomes immovable. And then, finally, with all options exhausted, MPs will have to fall in line with her deal or else topple into the abyss. That is how she checkmates her opponents. That's the plan.

It is perfectly visible now. Anyone can see it. But no-one is stopping her. There is only one way to do so: Insist that Britain takes part in the European elections. That means passing the legislation to do so at the point of extending Article 50. Anything else leaves us at her mercy.

This is basically what I expect will happen. May will gradually remove the delay and then the no-brexit options until there's only her deal vs no deal, and then her deal will win, but even if it doesn't and she's forced into no deal, that will mean she has delivered brexit which is her number 1 priority. The economic mess can always be cleared up later.

The A50 delay is really just a sacrifice of a rook when you know the queen is about to checkmate your opponent. The only way I can see it stopped is if during any extension, MPs vote to force May to revoke A50 altogether. Not sure they'll dare.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 27 Feb 2019, 11:56

https://mobile.twitter.com/Berenberg_Ec ... r%5Eauthor

Bb latest... chances of a Brexit deal in line with Labour e.g. remain within customs union and participating in single market for goods rising as likely outcome.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 27 Feb 2019, 21:41

Just gut instinct...

I now think a very long (18 months to 2 years) extension is looking likely. I think parliament is going to force May to seek an extension, and the EU will respond by refusing an extension only to June on the grounds that it is just more pointless can-kicking and attempted manipulation of parliament by May. The EU will say "OK, you can have an extension, but its got to be long enough for the UK to sort its act out", which in effect means the UK would have to agree to hold either a general election or a second referendum. And May would be forced to step down (somehow).

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 28 Feb 2019, 09:09

And they get to choose what is on the 2nd referendum questions.

It is going exactly as I would have guessed, so far.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Feb 2019, 12:19

Labour is finished. So too, probably, are the Tories. There are lots of reasons why this has happened. But, so far as the end of Labour is concerned, not least of those reasons is the unholy alliance between the radical liberals, the intersectionalists and the neo-liberal "progressives" that have so infested the so-called mainstream Left since the days of Blair.

A major realignment of British politics is now coming. A realignment that many on the mainstream left are really not going to like.

You reap what you sow.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Feb 2019, 16:03

Still not a word on the current legal position.

On what proposition can a group/party in the commons get an agreement on before the 29th?

If there is no agreement in the commons we leave without a deal.

Everyone one knows what everyone else doesn't like or would resign over.

But what are 330MP's going to agree on....

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Feb 2019, 17:07

stumuz1 wrote:
On what proposition can a group/party in the commons get an agreement on before the 29th?

An article 50 extension, probably. It is the first stage in the process of reversing brexit, and will be the first thing the commons agrees to. There is nowhere else to go after "no no deal", apart from "erm, no deal anyway."

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Feb 2019, 17:13

fuzzy wrote:And they get to choose what is on the 2nd referendum questions.

It is going exactly as I would have guessed, so far.

The EU might demand that no deal isn't on the ballot paper, but if so the extension might not get through parliament. They also may decide they don't have to impose that condition, since the commons only asked for the extension in order to avoid no deal (and Labour has swung behind a referendum without no deal as an option). The other problem with the EU trying to dictate the question is that it is very likely a general election is going to happen before a referendum, and if the EU is seen to have pre-meddled in the format of a potential second referendum, it might influence the result of the election.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 28 Feb 2019, 17:14

stumuz1 wrote:
But what are 330MP's going to agree on....

Breaking for a long lunch?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Feb 2019, 17:29

Little John wrote:Labour is finished. So too, probably, are the Tories. There are lots of reasons why this has happened. But, so far as the end of Labour is concerned, not least of those reasons is the unholy alliance between the radical liberals, the intersectionalists and the neo-liberal "progressives" that have so infested the so-called mainstream Left since the days of Blair.

A major realignment of British politics is now coming. A realignment that many on the mainstream left are really not going to like.

You reap what you sow.

Seen this?

https://order-order.com/2019/02/28/brex ... stminster/

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Feb 2019, 17:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
On what proposition can a group/party in the commons get an agreement on before the 29th?
An article 50 extension, probably. It is the first stage in the process of reversing brexit, and will be the first thing the commons agrees to. There is nowhere else to go after "no no deal", apart from "erm, no deal anyway."

But, Merkel and Macron have said that they will not agree an extension to can kick. Only for definite proposal. Back to the 330 MP,s

Post by **clv101** » 28 Feb 2019, 18:09

stumuz1, do you think we'll be leaving, no deal, on 29th March?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Feb 2019, 18:59

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:Labour is finished. So too, probably, are the Tories. There are lots of reasons why this has happened. But, so far as the end of Labour is concerned, not least of those reasons is the unholy alliance between the radical liberals, the intersectionalists and the neo-liberal "progressives" that have so infested the so-called mainstream Left since the days of Blair.

A major realignment of British politics is now coming. A realignment that many on the mainstream left are really not going to like.

You reap what you sow.
Seen this?

https://order-order.com/2019/02/28/brex ... stminster/

yes, I'll be attending

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Feb 2019, 20:30

clv101 wrote:stumuz1, do you think we'll be leaving, no deal, on 29th March?

Probably. 80% itâ€™s on.
These are not normal times, usual certainties cannot be counted on.