Brexit process

[Little John]

Canada is back.

Canada is the only thing generally acceptable to the EU which doesn't cross the UK's red line. But it doesn't solve the Irish border problem, which leaves us with a choice between:

(a) Canada with a hard border in Ireland. (Ireland will veto)
(b) Canada with a hard border in the Irish Sea. (DUP will veto)
(c) No or minimal deal.

What Irish border problem?

If Ireland vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and Ireland will do what about that, precisely?

If the DUP vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and the DUP will do what about that, precisely?

[UndercoverElephant]

What Irish border problem?

If Ireland vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and Ireland will do what about that, precisely?

If the DUP vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and the DUP will do what about that, precisely?

There can be no "Canada deal" if either the DUP vetoes it in the HoC or Ireland vetoes it in the EU. The problem is that as things currently stand, the Irish Border Situation means a Canada-style deal with the EU isn't possible, let alone anything more "ambitious".

If Ireland didn't exist, we'd be heading straight towards a Canada-style deal right now. But because of an "internal British Isles" problem, we can't even do a deal with the EU equivalent to Canada.

This is really heading towards an existential crisis for Northern Ireland. It is time for Ulster to be Irish.

The DUP might also bring the government down in retaliation to a deal involving a border in the Irish Sea.

[UndercoverElephant]

Canada copes with Quebec and Alaska OK.

Those are different problems though....

[Little John]

What Irish border problem?

If Ireland vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and Ireland will do what about that, precisely?

If the DUP vetoes, then so what? We will go to WTO rules and the DUP will do what about that, precisely?

There can be no "Canada deal" if either the DUP vetoes it in the HoC or Ireland vetoes it in the EU. The problem is that as things currently stand, the Irish Border Situation means a Canada-style deal with the EU isn't possible, let alone anything more "ambitious".

If Ireland didn't exist, we'd be heading straight towards a Canada-style deal right now. But because of an "internal British Isles" problem, we can't even do a deal with the EU equivalent to Canada.

This is really heading towards an existential crisis for Northern Ireland. It is time for Ulster to be Irish.

The DUP might also bring the government down in retaliation to a deal involving a border in the Irish Sea.

Why does there need to be a border in the Irish Sea? There is already a border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland. Additionally, insofar as there may or may not be an "existential" crisis for NI, this is no more or less true and no more or less resolvable before or after Brexit. The good Friday agreement allows for a referendum to be held by NI on whether or not they join SI. It will continue to allow for that post Brexit.

[Potemkin Villager]

This is really heading towards an existential crisis for Northern Ireland.

Norniron is an existential crisis.

[UndercoverElephant]

Why does there need to be a border in the Irish Sea? There is already a border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland.

That border is currently invisible, and could not remain that way if we are going for Canada+.

Additionally, insofar as there may or may not be an "existential" crisis for NI, this is no more or less true and no more or less resolvable before or after Brexit. The good Friday agreement allows for a referendum to be held by NI on whether or not they join SI. It will continue to allow for that post Brexit.

This is a question about whether a Canada style deal is possible. And if Ireland vetoes it, it is not possible. I suspect Ireland will indeed veto it if the proposal includes a hard border between NI and the Republic.

[emordnilap]

Oh yeah, I understand that there are now whole swathes of the economy that have been sucked into being reliant on cheap imported labour.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45440025

What kind of rates are they paying?

[Potemkin Villager]

You can't have them coming in and lowering wages even if 20 to 24 people are applying for each job! Fruit picking is ok for a day or so but I am not sure I would want to do it for weeks on end.

[emordnilap]

Fruit picking is ok for a day or so but I am not sure I would want to do it for weeks on end.

And there you have it. The harder the work, the higher the rate of pay should be.

In reality, it's the other way round.

[Little John]

Fruit picking is ok for a day or so but I am not sure I would want to do it for weeks on end.

And there you have it. The harder the work, the higher the rate of pay should be.

In reality, it's the other way round.

Ah.. now.. you see, you've missed the point of Pontemkin's comment there E.

What he was attempting to do there was make a smug, supercilious insinuation that the British are lazy and so that is why we need the immigrant cheap labour.

[Little John]

Why does there need to be a border in the Irish Sea? There is already a border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland.

That border is currently invisible, and could not remain that way if we are going for Canada+.

Additionally, insofar as there may or may not be an "existential" crisis for NI, this is no more or less true and no more or less resolvable before or after Brexit. The good Friday agreement allows for a referendum to be held by NI on whether or not they join SI. It will continue to allow for that post Brexit.

This is a question about whether a Canada style deal is possible. And if Ireland vetoes it, it is not possible. I suspect Ireland will indeed veto it if the proposal includes a hard border between NI and the Republic.

Ok, so Ireland vetoes it. So what?

It is not beyond the wit of man or the capacity of technology to issue visas to the Irish and Northern Irish such that they may cross over the border with relative ease to do business. Insofar as the transportation of goods is concerned, this can be as easy or as hard as the Irish wish to make it. Or, rather, as easy or hard as their EU masters wish to make it.

The plain fact is, if Ireland wishes to remain in the EU and the UK is leaving the EU, then a border between Northern Ireland and an EU controlled Southern Ireland will exist. How hard that border needs to be will be entirely dependent on the level of cooperation or intransigence of the EU.

[emordnilap]

Fruit picking is ok for a day or so but I am not sure I would want to do it for weeks on end.

And there you have it. The harder the work, the higher the rate of pay should be.

In reality, it's the other way round.

Ah.. now.. you see, you've missed the point of Pontemkin's comment there E.

TBS, I love harvesting food. It's so satisfying. It's healthy but hard work - but we get to eat the result, sometimes for months on end.

To do it for someone else, I want €20 an hour or €15 plus food and expenses.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ok, so Ireland vetoes it. So what?

Canada+ deal doesn't happen.

The plain fact is, if Ireland wishes to remain in the EU and the UK is leaving the EU, then a border between Northern Ireland and an EU controlled Southern Ireland will exist.

If so, then there will be no deal.

How hard that border needs to be will be entirely dependent on the level of cooperation or intransigence of the EU.

Not true. Both sides have little choice but to erect and control a real hard border.

[Little John]

So, why it is beyond the wit of Ireland and the UK to issue special visas to Irish and UK citizen, who may request one, for unhindered personal and business travel between NI and SI?

On the issue of goods, then yes indeed, there will be customs requirements. But, that is because Ireland is a different country. Having said that, if Ireland chose to not be part of the Eu, those customs arrangement would not need to be as tight as they may end up being. But, that is a matter for Ireland to decide where its interests lie. It is not for the UK to mitigate and certainly not in terms of not implementing Brexit.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, why it is beyond the wit of Ireland and the UK to issue special visas to Irish and UK citizen, who may request one, for unhindered personal and business travel between NI and SI?

There still has to be border infrastructure. There has to be a fence.

On the issue of goods, then yes indeed, there will be customs requirements. But, that is because Ireland is a different country. Having said that, if Ireland chose to not be part of the Eu, those customs arrangement would not need to be as tight as they may end up being. But, that is a matter for Ireland to decide where its interests lie. It is not for the UK to mitigate and certainly not in terms of not implementing Brexit.

I think you are risking accusations of being disingenuous here. The reality is that this situation is politically almost impossible because of the conjunction of three factors. Firstly a major nation is leaving the EU for the first time, using a legal framework that was designed to be unusable, and with the EU negotiating in bad faith. Secondly the British side is hopelessly split, with a very weak minority government and a PM who has no credibility. Bad enough on its own, but this is made far, far worse by the fact that part of the nation that is leaving is a small corner of another nation and there's a long history of vicious sectarian conflict which was only really ended by both sides joining the EU at the same time so the border could be taken down. Simply saying "its not our problem" is bordering on disingenuous because you are failing to acknowledge just how serious the problem actually is. Technically you are right, but the reality is that we can't just "expect the Irish to sort it out, because it is their problem."

I think what is needed is a radical but necessary debate about the future status of northern ireland. If a united Ireland is inevitable and it is just a question of when rather than if, then now is the time start talking about the when. And if the DUP decide to kick off, they may just end up finding themselves politically isolated. This is NOT merely "an Irish problem". So long as NI remains part of the UK, it is also our problem.

Bottom line: we need to stand up and tell the Irish, on both sides of the border, that they have to choose between re-unification and a hard border. The status quo is not an option, because of Brexit. If we are willing to do that, then it stops being our problem. And if the unionist extremists decide to get nasty, then we send in the SAS again, except this time to take out the other side.