Crikey, if I earned that much, I'd be rolling in it. And I'm in an expensive country generally, lacking several of the benefits mentioned.PS_RalphW wrote:When you have free universal healthcare, child care, education, pensions, welfare and good cheap public transport, and extremely low crime rates, $2900 a month goes a long way to a very good standard of living.
Labour Party/government Watch
Moderator: Peak Moderation
-
emordnilap
- Posts: 14814
- Joined: 05 Sep 2007, 16:36
- Location: here
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13501
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
To get this back on topic...
I think whether or not Corbyn can win in 2020 is down to two issues that aren't being highlighted clearly enough. It's not so much about whether the public is willing to vote for a left wing labour leader - I think there is far more appetite for that than either the political establishment (including the Blairites) and the media realise. Which is partly why Corbyn is in this position in the first place - because those people thought a Corbyn victory in the leadership election was as impossible as they still think a Corbyn victory in 2020 is. But maybe even that perception is changing.
Key question number one: can Corbyn keep the Blairites under control, or will they bring him down? I don't know the answer. I am hopeful the Blairites will realise that their own constituents and local party members want them to support Corbyn. I also suspect pressure will be applied behing the scenes, both from the top and the bottom, and that any emerging "awkward squad" will end up being threatened with deselection.
Key question number two: how do the tories deal with and respond to Corbyn and the changed political landscape in the UK? This is even harder to predict. The political right doesn't know how to react to Corbyn. They don't know whether to ridicule him, or take him seriously. They don't know what topics to ridicule him on. Some of them attack him personally, but this has been spectacularly backfiring. But much more important is whether they temper their right-wing tendencies. Note that this is not even being discussed in the maintream media - nobody is seriously suggesting that Corbyn's election could result in the government moving slightly to the left, because to even talk about such things is the first step towards it happening.
The tories have got an overall majority for the first time in 18 years, but it is wafer-thin, based on the lowest share of the vote in modern history and comes at the end of 5 years of bitter "austerity". They clearly want to lurch even further to the right - they want to take their opportunity to implement savage ideologically-driven cuts, punish the poor in every way possible, reward the rich...do everything they've been itching to do but couldn't without an overall majority. And they may well do exactly that, because most tories and tory supporters have convinced themselves that "we won fair and square", conveniently forgetting that three-quarters of the electorate didn't vote for them, and already hate their miserable, stinking guts.
The thing is this: the further the tories lurch to the right, the more people they will drive into the arms of a Corbyn-led labour party. This includes both UKIP voters (UKIP won't be relevant after the referendum) and, crucially, people who voted libdem in May. I think the libdem's nightmare is not yet over. Two of their 8 MPs (one of whom is Clegg) are sitting on small majorities with Labour as the main challenger. Both would lose their seats to a Corbyn-led labour party in 2020, IMO. The other 6 will probably hang on, but what really matters is what happens to the remaining libdem vote in seats where labour are now the main challenger to the tories because the libdem vote collapsed in May. I think that the libdem leadership is as out of touch with its membership and voters as New Labour are, and that a lot of those people will defect to labour in 2020 if Corbyn is leader.
It is going to be very interesting to see how both the tories and the libdems respond to Corbyn. At the moment I don't think they have a plan.
I think whether or not Corbyn can win in 2020 is down to two issues that aren't being highlighted clearly enough. It's not so much about whether the public is willing to vote for a left wing labour leader - I think there is far more appetite for that than either the political establishment (including the Blairites) and the media realise. Which is partly why Corbyn is in this position in the first place - because those people thought a Corbyn victory in the leadership election was as impossible as they still think a Corbyn victory in 2020 is. But maybe even that perception is changing.
Key question number one: can Corbyn keep the Blairites under control, or will they bring him down? I don't know the answer. I am hopeful the Blairites will realise that their own constituents and local party members want them to support Corbyn. I also suspect pressure will be applied behing the scenes, both from the top and the bottom, and that any emerging "awkward squad" will end up being threatened with deselection.
Key question number two: how do the tories deal with and respond to Corbyn and the changed political landscape in the UK? This is even harder to predict. The political right doesn't know how to react to Corbyn. They don't know whether to ridicule him, or take him seriously. They don't know what topics to ridicule him on. Some of them attack him personally, but this has been spectacularly backfiring. But much more important is whether they temper their right-wing tendencies. Note that this is not even being discussed in the maintream media - nobody is seriously suggesting that Corbyn's election could result in the government moving slightly to the left, because to even talk about such things is the first step towards it happening.
The tories have got an overall majority for the first time in 18 years, but it is wafer-thin, based on the lowest share of the vote in modern history and comes at the end of 5 years of bitter "austerity". They clearly want to lurch even further to the right - they want to take their opportunity to implement savage ideologically-driven cuts, punish the poor in every way possible, reward the rich...do everything they've been itching to do but couldn't without an overall majority. And they may well do exactly that, because most tories and tory supporters have convinced themselves that "we won fair and square", conveniently forgetting that three-quarters of the electorate didn't vote for them, and already hate their miserable, stinking guts.
The thing is this: the further the tories lurch to the right, the more people they will drive into the arms of a Corbyn-led labour party. This includes both UKIP voters (UKIP won't be relevant after the referendum) and, crucially, people who voted libdem in May. I think the libdem's nightmare is not yet over. Two of their 8 MPs (one of whom is Clegg) are sitting on small majorities with Labour as the main challenger. Both would lose their seats to a Corbyn-led labour party in 2020, IMO. The other 6 will probably hang on, but what really matters is what happens to the remaining libdem vote in seats where labour are now the main challenger to the tories because the libdem vote collapsed in May. I think that the libdem leadership is as out of touch with its membership and voters as New Labour are, and that a lot of those people will defect to labour in 2020 if Corbyn is leader.
It is going to be very interesting to see how both the tories and the libdems respond to Corbyn. At the moment I don't think they have a plan.
-
3rdRock
Corbyn has built up a following for all of the right reasons and may well become the leader of the Labour party.
Electorally, he'll fail dismally for all of the same reasons.
His type of caring politics will always appeal to an increasingly smaller section of the community, who passionately believe, as I do, in that fairer system that took an 'old style' Labour Party decades to achieve and only one or two decades, with Thatcher's help, to destroy.
A new breed of aspirational, Prosecco coiffing Blairites now hold sway in this sad old country of ours and with the help of a merciless MSM and their right wing corporate masters, will ensure that the Labour Party will remain in the wilderness for decades to come.
It's a numbers game and those who care are unfortunately, in a minority.
Social justice and compassionate policies are 'so yesterday', don't you know.
This is what the war criminal had to say this morning:
Need I say more?
Electorally, he'll fail dismally for all of the same reasons.
His type of caring politics will always appeal to an increasingly smaller section of the community, who passionately believe, as I do, in that fairer system that took an 'old style' Labour Party decades to achieve and only one or two decades, with Thatcher's help, to destroy.
A new breed of aspirational, Prosecco coiffing Blairites now hold sway in this sad old country of ours and with the help of a merciless MSM and their right wing corporate masters, will ensure that the Labour Party will remain in the wilderness for decades to come.
It's a numbers game and those who care are unfortunately, in a minority.
Social justice and compassionate policies are 'so yesterday', don't you know.
This is what the war criminal had to say this morning:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34100741Reject 'Alice in Wonderland' politics, Blair tells Labour
Need I say more?
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13501
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
I don't agree. Times are getting harder, the gap between rich and poor is getting bigger, and the pain of austerity is hitting the young far harder than the old. I think a majority of people who will become eligible to vote in the next 5 years will like Corbyn, whereas old people who die are far more likely to be tories.3rdRock wrote:Corbyn has built up a following for all of the right reasons and may well become the leader of the Labour party.
Electorally, he'll fail dismally for all of the same reasons.
His type of caring politics will always appeal to an increasingly smaller section of the community, who passionately believe, as I do, in that fairer system that took an 'old style' Labour Party decades to achieve and only one or two decades, with Thatcher's help, to destroy.
I don't know what is going to happen (obviously) but I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how popular and succesful Corbyn is with the general public.
And NOBODY is listening to Blair anymore.
-
3rdRock
A few posts ago (page 12), I said this:UndercoverElephant wrote:I don't agree. Times are getting harder, the gap between rich and poor is getting bigger, and the pain of austerity is hitting the young far harder than the old. I think a majority of people who will become eligible to vote in the next 5 years will like Corbyn, whereas old people who die are far more likely to be tories.3rdRock wrote:Corbyn has built up a following for all of the right reasons and may well become the leader of the Labour party.
Electorally, he'll fail dismally for all of the same reasons.
His type of caring politics will always appeal to an increasingly smaller section of the community, who passionately believe, as I do, in that fairer system that took an 'old style' Labour Party decades to achieve and only one or two decades, with Thatcher's help, to destroy.
I don't know what is going to happen (obviously) but I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how popular and succesful Corbyn is with the general public.
And NOBODY is listening to Blair anymore.
I still believe that to be the case.I'm also sure that there's an army of people in this country ready to stand up to the outrages that we witnessed over the last 20 years or so.
The problem, as I see it, is that those folk who share that clarity of purpose will remain a minority. If not, why didn't we see a change of direction in the making on the 15th May?
The MSM have clearly set their sights on the poor, sick, young and unemployed in this country. The fear of joining their ranks will continue to ensure that most of the sheeple will fall into line. After all, why rock the boat when you've got a little further to fall, bills to pay and families to feed?
TPTB know how to 'operate' the public. Like marionettes, the vast majority will always dance to their tune. Sad, shameful even, but true nevertheless.
Yes, there is a growing 'army' of folk fighting for the right to be heard, but they'll always be a minority group.
We live in a class ridden, aspirational and yet, fearful society where the majority are just about 'getting by', thank you very much.
Somehow, I don't think they'll want to rock the boat come 2020. Too many personal debts and aspirations to worry about.
-
Little John
So, on the one hand, you are happy to persist in completely unrealisable and unrealistic aspirations vis a vis people who are not your countrymen, but who are from far way (as evidenced in the migration thread). Aspirations that, if implemented, will arguably make the lives of ordinary and poor people here even harder than they already are due to an inexorable and increasing constraint on resources. Whilst, on the other hand, you are far too cynical to even entertain such aspirations here at home for your own countrymen who are suffering right here and now because you don't see any hope of those aspirations being realised.
To be honest, you sound like someone suffering from some form of cultural self-loathing. I think you need to re-order your priorities 3R and fast.
To be honest, you sound like someone suffering from some form of cultural self-loathing. I think you need to re-order your priorities 3R and fast.
-
3rdRock
You've got me all wrong LJ. Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.Little John wrote:So, on the one hand, you are happy to persist in completely unrealisable and unrealistic aspirations vis a vis people who are not your countrymen, but who are from far way (as evidenced in the migration thread). Aspirations that, if implemented, will arguably make the lives of ordinary and poor people here even harder than they already are due to an inexorable and increasing constraint on resources. Whilst, on the other hand, you are far too cynical to even entertain such aspirations here at home for your own countrymen who are suffering right here and now because you don't see any hope of those aspirations being realised.
To be honest, you sound like someone suffering from some form of cultural self-loathing. I think you need to re-order your priorities 3R and fast.
I'm not too cynical to share your aspirations regarding Jeremy Corbyn's intentions and hopes for a better future.
God help me, I've always been a died-in-the-wool socialist - it's in my very DNA.
I think JC is a long overdue breath of fresh air within the Labour Party which has been sadly missing over the past decade or two.
The trouble is, an aspiration is just that - a hope, a wish for a better and more equitable future. I'd be the first to shout about that from the rooftops of the Palace of Westminster given half a chance. I'm sure you'd be happy to join me.
The problem I've got is with the reality of the inevitable numbers game that will be played out come the next general election.
Centrists, the right wing, the far right, the MSM and every corporate shill will be clamouring to poison the public's appetite for change over the next four years or so.
The people of this country are already running scared - public and personal debt, migration, slow economic growth, the growing perception of an NHS in crisis, families to feed, high mortgages to pay, soul-destroying jobs to contend with, etc., etc..
Our corporate friends will make sure that their whispers about the 'dangers of a change of government', will turn into an unmissable scream before the next election. It'll be a scream that many right-minded folk (no pun intended) will find hard to resist.
It is for that reason and that reason alone, that I believe the Labour Party will not succeed in 2020.
Nothing to do with my lack of hope or my long term aspirations for a better future, both here and abroad, but the inevitable numbers game being planned for us as we sleep.
As for any cultural self-loathing which I may be harbouring, I fail to see what we've got to be so proud about in the West given our past history of imperialism and exploitation.
3rdRock, remember more people (39.1%) didn't vote at all than voted for the Tories or Labour. IF Corbyn can maintain most of those who voted last time (30.4%) and gain a few (the young!) of the did-not-voters then he's got a real chance to win.
Realistically there's around 10% to fight for in the did not vote camp. I think Corbyn has the best chance of any Labour leader candidate (or conservative) to mobilise them.
I don't subscribe to the idea that he's unelectable.
Realistically there's around 10% to fight for in the did not vote camp. I think Corbyn has the best chance of any Labour leader candidate (or conservative) to mobilise them.
I don't subscribe to the idea that he's unelectable.
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13501
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
People who think Corbyn is unelectable are basing their opinions too much on the past - on what happened in 1983 - and not enough on what is happening right now. This is not 1979 and Jeremy Corbyn is not Michael Foot.
I honestly think the biggest risk is that he's so threatening to the establishment that he gets taken out, like David Kelly was.
I honestly think the biggest risk is that he's so threatening to the establishment that he gets taken out, like David Kelly was.
-
3rdRock
I hope you're right, I really do and I wish the next Labour leader every success in trying to convince that apathetic 39.1% of the population to get off their arse and make a difference in 2020.clv101 wrote:3rdRock, remember more people (39.1%) didn't vote at all than voted for the Tories or Labour. IF Corbyn can maintain most of those who voted last time (30.4%) and gain a few (the young!) of the did-not-voters then he's got a real chance to win.
Realistically there's around 10% to fight for in the did not vote camp. I think Corbyn has the best chance of any Labour leader candidate (or conservative) to mobilise them.
I don't subscribe to the idea that he's unelectable.
God knows we need to be liberated from this ideologically driven shower currently in power.
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13501
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
Superb article by Owen Jones, and anybody who wants Corbyn to turn leadership victory into something bigger would benefit from reading all of it:
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/my-hone ... 81d4449884
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/my-hone ... 81d4449884
Yes. Great to think he has someone like this backing him with media strategy.UndercoverElephant wrote:Superb article by Owen Jones, and anybody who wants Corbyn to turn leadership victory into something bigger would benefit from reading all of it:
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/my-hone ... 81d4449884
I like this as a way to rebutt media accusations of being an extremist:
The government should be relentlessly attacked for not only consorting with extremists, but arming them. Saudi Arabia is one of the most vicious dictatorships on Earth. It beheads its own citizens for being gay or being “sorcerers”. It deprives women of basic rights. It has no democratic freedoms. The Kingdom exports extremism which is a clear and present threat to British citizens. And yet when the dictator of Saudi Arabia died, British flags were flown at half mast. We arm this dictatorship to the teeth. This arming of extremists must be absolutely taken on.