Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

[clv101]

There are a lot of things to worry about in this world, but Ebola isn't really one of them in my opinion. A pandemic killing hundreds of millions or even a billion is, again in my opinion, likely this century but I don't think it's going to come from Ebola. Ebola isn't easily enough transmitted and is too fatal for its own good. Ebola is associated with chronic lack of healthcare system and a population lacking basic healthcare education. It could ravage slum areas in the poorest countries in the world. But wouldn't get far in the West.

Something like an avian flu mutation or SARs is more of a worry than Ebola.

[madibe]

If you get someone with Ebola and they walk up the stairs in a University, placing their sweaty palms on the hand rail... what is the chance of it being passed around?



Do you realise how many times we unconsciously touch our faces or rub our eyes, pick our noses etc?

I think it is a myth that this is hard to transmit - for sure it is not as bad as an airborne virus, . You do not need to be sprayed in faeces or vomit though

[UndercoverElephant]

If we're on the topic of what diseases are likely to make major inroads into the western population, I'd personally suggest antibiotic-resistant versions of tuberculosis and MRSA. Certain STDs might make a serious comeback also.

I agree with Chris. If there is going to be a big ebola pandemic then it's the undeveloped bits of this planet that are going to suffer.

[adam2]

If you get someone with Ebola and they walk up the stairs in a University, placing their sweaty palms on the hand rail... what is the chance of it being passed around?



Do you realise how many times we unconsciously touch our faces or rub our eyes, pick our noses etc?

I think it is a myth that this is hard to transmit - for sure it is not as bad as an airborne virus, . You do not need to be sprayed in faeces or vomit though

I suspect that the risk of catching ebola from the handrail on a stairway is very small, though I would not care to put this to a test.

If the disease COULD be caught by simple contact with touched surfaces then I would expect it to have spread to a much greater extent than has been observed so far.
Large numbers have died, but consider how many, before becoming too ill to move, must have used public buildings, public transport, shared toilets and the like. Vast numbers of other people must have touched surfaces previously touched by ebola victims, most must have survived or hardly anyone would still be alive in the worst affected regions.

I would still prefer to avoid crowded public spaces, "just in case" though.
I would certainly avoid surfaces or areas suffering visible soiling or contamination, and persons showing symptoms.

[vtsnowedin]

I would still prefer to avoid crowded public spaces, "just in case" though.
I would certainly avoid surfaces or areas suffering visible soiling or contamination, and persons showing symptoms.

I would avoid them by staying five hundred miles or better from them and certainly not board a plane that had flown from any of the effected areas until every interior surface of it had been sanitized and dried out.

[biffvernon]

Never mind Ebola, I would certainly not board a plane anyway.

[madibe]

The interesting bit will be when we hit the flu season - how does anyone then know if it is flu or something much worse? Until it is too late.

I know that when semester starts we all (teaching and support staff) get every miserable cold, cough, flu and the like. It is called freshers flu and is just caused by the massive melting pot of viruses from all aver the country and abroad.

It is particularly bad in my area because we use radio studios and editing suites - nice and warm and quite poorly ventilated. The students work in groups of five in a space not much more than 3m by 4m. It is a nightmare! (even under normal circumstances).

Oh what joy

[biffvernon]

The cure (perhaps)
http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131128/ ... 03365.html

[adam2]

There seems little chance of effective control in regions where some people do not believe in elbola, and others believe that it is spread by disinfectant

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28984259

[PS_RalphW]

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... in-senegal

Another country infected.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would not be at all surprised if the false rumours about Ebola were spread by local witch doctors who are losing custom to modern medicine. They have a lot to gain from the inability of modern medicine to prevent the spread of ebola.

[adam2]

I would not be at all surprised if the false rumours about Ebola were spread by local witch doctors who are losing custom to modern medicine. They have a lot to gain from the inability of modern medicine to prevent the spread of ebola.

Yes.

[fuzzy]

A good article to keep the pot boiling. It is the lies that will be our undoing:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/afr ... story.html

[UndercoverElephant]

Don't know about "lies", but I am curious as to how this "20,000" figure that's continually being bandied about was arrived at. According to the WHO, 20,000 could be infected before the outbreak is brought under control. In order to arrive at this figure somebody has to have worked out how it is going to be "brought under control" (or blow itself out, somehow). But the whole point right now is that we've never seen an outbreak of ebola like this one - we've never seen one that lasted this long, and we've never seen one that had got a serious foot-hold in cities and slum areas. So there is zero relevant information about how this outbreak might be brought under control or blow itself out. So where has this 20,000 figure come from?

http://mashable.com/2014/08/28/who-ebol ... ach-20000/

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa eventually could exceed 20,000 cases

The plan calls for $489 million to be spent over the next nine months

The goal is to take "the heat out of this outbreak" within three months, he said. That will enable WHO to start using classic containment strategies to stop transmission altogether.

The next goal, Aylward said, is to be able to stop transmission within eight weeks of a new case being confirmed anywhere.

"That is extremely aggressive but that can be done. It has been done in remote forested areas; it has not been done in urban areas."

The third major goal is to increase the preparedness for dealing with Ebola in all nations that share borders with affected countries or have major transportation hubs, he said.

The 20,000 cases figure, said Aylward, "is a scale that I think has not ever been anticipated in terms of an Ebola outbreak."

"That's not saying we expect 20,000," he added. "But we have got to have a system in place that we can deal with robust numbers."

So "it could exceed 20,000". That doesn't mean anything at all. It "could exceed" 200,000 or 2,000,000, very easily. The claim appears to be that if $0.5bn is spent on a new plan to contain the outbreak, then it might do so within 9 months, after which approximately 20,000 people will have been infected. I think the most important sentence in the above quote is "it has not been done in urban areas." This 21 day gestation period is a real bugger. Combine that with urban/slum areas with poor living, healthcare and sanitation standards and you've got something that is pretty much uncontainable.

I don't think anybody is in a position right now to make a guess that's worth anything about the future course of this outbreak. I think we're in completely uncharted territory, and that at this point pretty much anything could happen. We could be looking at an outbreak that last several years and kills tens or hundreds of millions of people.

[fuzzy]

I can't see them controlling it. They will quickly run out of qualified health workers and then it's just evolution sorting it.