The crisis in Ukraine

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3rdRock

Post by 3rdRock »

Pro-Russians storm Ukraine Sevastopol naval base in Crimea

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26643141
Pro-Russian activists, some armed, have stormed the HQ of Ukraine's navy in the Crimean city of Sevastopol.

Several Ukrainian servicemen have left, the Russia flag is flying and there are reports that Ukrainian navy chief Serhiy Hayduk has been detained.

It comes a day after Crimean leaders signed a treaty with Russia absorbing the peninsula into Russia.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

The feedback on the web is that the Ukrainian military is not prepared to fight. They know they would lose, and would end up in jail or dead. Many of them are either ethnic Russian or see a future career under Russian military. Those that have not already defected are utterly demoralised.

This is mopping up operations to flush out the die-hards.

Once this phase is over, we will find out if Russia will stop here or repeat the process in the Ukrainian East mainland.

As was obvious from the start, western sanctions are symbolic to save face. Russia holds all the cards.
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Post by PS_RalphW »

This is very interesting article giving a lot of the political/energy background to Ukraine.

http://euanmearns.com/putins-energy-str ... #more-2425

The Ukraine is an increasing irrelevance to the European energy supply.

The gas pipelines through the Ukraine are being bypassed to the north and south. LNG is also taking a growing share of a declining market.

Ukraine has been trading on its pipeline bottleneck too long, and its bluff is being called.

My guess is that both Russia and Europe has decided to cut Ukraine lose. Let them sink under their debts. Russia is reclaiming their corner in Crimea.

However, this line is interesting and worrying.
Eastern Ukraine’s giant Donbas coal field is estimated by many analysts as holding very impressive quantities of coalbed methane, with published outline estimates from the US EIA and other sources extending well above 1 trillion cubic metres.
CBM is bad news environmentally, but it may be a significant energy resource, and the preponderance of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine may be all the excuse Putin needs to annex this coal fields as well.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

A short piece from Kunstler

I love his cynicism. If he was English/writing in English he'd be unrivalled.
Notice that for ten years the Russians have not been jumping up and down as the USA hops from one Central Asian state to the next blowing things up and arranging affairs so that hundreds of thousands of people get killed — quite a few by our cunning model airplanes controlled by military video gamesters, who blow away “folks” on morning watch before repairing to the nearest Taco Bell for an order of Doritos Locos (and a chance to watch Lady Gaga get vomit-tagged on their iPhones). I wonder how the USA would feel if the Russian foreign ministry ginned up an operation to persuade Texas to secede from the Union (again).
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Post by SleeperService »

Steve's pie chart in the first post tells you a great deal about Crimea's recent history. The 12% Tartars are all that's left after they were all sent to Siberia and ethnic Russians moved in instead in the 1950s. That's why the Russian population is so high.

At about the same time Crimea was 'given' to Ukraine but the union was never happy.

The Ukrainians want to be in Europe because they can see into the EU and how much better things are there. There was no way the Russians would allow their major naval and air bases to be in a NATO country (not today but soon), so the annexation was a 'done deal'. The ex-pats over here (working for M&S mainly- the irony) talk of eastern Ukrainians heading into Crimea with the Crimean Ukrainians heading the other way. There is a chance Ukraine will split into two but IMHO that's unlikely.

Putin's actions are pretty deplorable but, in this case, the result may be the best one for all parties. I'd suggest that the low profile of the Ukraine military is caution aimed at avoiding any conflict.

Should be an interesting year as this settles out....
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

What do you think of this article? There's a big game being played.

Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China
And now add bilateral trade denominated in either Rubles or Renminbi (or gold), add Iran, Iraq, India, and soon the Saudis (China's largest foreign source of crude, whose crown prince also happened to meet president Xi Jinping last week to expand trade further) and wave goodbye to the petrodollar.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

emordnilap wrote:What do you think of this article? There's a big game being played.

Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China
And now add bilateral trade denominated in either Rubles or Renminbi (or gold), add Iran, Iraq, India, and soon the Saudis (China's largest foreign source of crude, whose crown prince also happened to meet president Xi Jinping last week to expand trade further) and wave goodbye to the petrodollar.
Was just about to post it myself.

The real power has already shifted East. The gold is flowing in that direction, the oil and gas are going to flow in that direction, and the US dollar is slowly but surely putrefying.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

http://dollarcollapse.com/currency-war- ... trodollar/
To understand why trade deals between Russia, China and India are potentially huge, a little history is useful: Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia — at the time the world’s biggest oil producer — calling for the US to prop up the kingdom’s corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. The “petrodollar” became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenback’s status as the world’s reserve currency. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. We just borrow from a world voracious for dollars.

But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies — or, as Zero Hedge speculates, in gold — then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollar’s foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for us to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily.

For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. And the gold and silver they’ve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds.

The West seems not to have grasped just how vulnerable it was when it got involved in this latest backyard squabble. But it may be about to find out.
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Post by emordnilap »

UndercoverElephant wrote:http://dollarcollapse.com/currency-war- ... trodollar/
To understand why trade deals between Russia, China and India are potentially huge, a little history is useful: Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia — at the time the world’s biggest oil producer — calling for the US to prop up the kingdom’s corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. The “petrodollar” became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenback’s status as the world’s reserve currency. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. We just borrow from a world voracious for dollars.

But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies — or, as Zero Hedge speculates, in gold — then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollar’s foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for us to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily.

For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Their own currencies gain prestige, giving their governments more political and military muscle. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. And the gold and silver they’ve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds.

The West seems not to have grasped just how vulnerable it was when it got involved in this latest backyard squabble. But it may be about to find out.
Put that way, this could be it, the biggie. What do you think?

A question: why does there have to be a 'reserve' currency? What's wrong with all currencies tootling along doing business with each other?

PS I'm bemused by the the bit 'cradle-to-grave entitlement system'. I thought that was an unattainable goal dreamed of by socialists, not set in type about extreme right-wing military regimes.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Little John

Post by Little John »

There is a growing bullshit narrative that seeks to argue that all of the growing crony capitalist woes of the West are really examples of too much socialism. This kind of narrative is particularly vigorous in the USA. It's nonsensically simplistic of course. The truth is, capitalism does not really exist any more than socialism. The truth is really simple and always has been. There's a few at the top and then there's the rest of us and the ways in which those at the top manipulate their respective territories varies according to circumstance. Sometime it is by buying us off, sometimes by keeping us busy, sometimes it is by keeping us afraid, sometimes by getting us to turn on each other and sometimes by direct and violent suppression.
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Post by emordnilap »

stevecook172001 wrote:There is a growing bullshit narrative that seeks to argue that all of the growing crony capitalist woes of the West are really examples of too much socialism.
Well said Steve.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Post by Tarrel »

I see the IMF are offering Ukraine $18 billion in return for a "reform package", part of which includes a 50% increase in domestic gas prices. Of course, half that money will go immediately to Russia and China in payment of overdue loans. I wonder what your average Ukrainian will think of that.
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Post by emordnilap »

The IMF should just fúck off.
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Post by Tarrel »

emordnilap wrote:The IMF should just fúck off.
Like the EU (according to Victoria Nuland).

Tallking of the EU, I see UKIP's Nigel Farage has been a naughty boy by daring to break with the politically correct storyline and suggest that the EU has "blood on its hands" over Ukraine (a viewpoint I happen to agree with). Nick Clegg is reported to be "shocked" and will be having words about it during the next EU in/out debate.
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Post by emordnilap »

The kettles (United States, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan and Canada) have "condemned" the pot's "illegal attempt to annex Crimea in contravention of international law". :roll: :lol: And "agreed their energy ministers would work together to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas and increase energy security" (read fracking, ecg and giving more money to the RGRalphs of this world).
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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