RalphW wrote:Coal is more a local market than gas.
It's low energy density means it is not shipped further than necessary. If the mine isn't near the sea or navigable river, it is burnt locally or not at all.
We import a lot of eastern European coal, by sea. Yes the pice goes up, but we are not competing with China or Japan for the coal we import.Gas can be used for electricity, domesticheating/cooking, transport, fertilizer and as a chemical feedstock. Coal is used for electricity.
Coal has carbon taxes to discourage its use here. Gas has to go up a lot to make coal popular.
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I think you are competing with China and other large importers and the distance between supply and end user will matter less if worldwide energy supplies get tighter.
A supply cutoff of gas no matter at what price would make coal a darling.
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-10 C here this morning but it's going to warm right up under sunny skies and the saps going to run. The unpaved roads are a sea of mud that challenge any of the smaller cars.
It is about the time of year to revive this old thread !
Our natural gas storage remains potentialy inadequate, but at least it is nearly full already.
It is interesting to observe that gas demand has fallen very substantialy indeed, in recent months demand has been very roughly HALF of the long term average.
This is partly due to the economic situation, but not entirely. I do not think that UK economic activity has halved.
I would presume that that demand has fallen due to domestic demand destruction as prices rise, and to gas for electricity generation being partialy displaced by wind power (and by PV though that is very small compared to wind)
Gas demand will no doubt rise as winter approaches, but will still probably be well below the long term winter average.
Storage will probably suffice, PROVIDED that no untoward event(s) occur.
Such events could include wars, coups or revolutions in gas producing nations, industrial disputes or accidents.
Last edited by adam2 on 10 Sep 2012, 15:24, edited 1 time in total.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
North Sea gas production is sharply down this month for planned maintenance. I expect demand has been cut in a planned way, with coal electricity production up sharply, to avoid spiking the gas price.
North Sea supply is still very low, and with demand picking up, the spot price is rising, and the linepack (pipeline network) pressure is dropping to a six month low. Mid-term storage has been tapped a bit, but long term storage has not yet been tapped as far as I can see. I guess they are waiting for the right price, or perhaps they have a long range forecast from the Met Office suggesting an arctic blast.
I am wondering if this winter will have a few unpleasant surprises for us.
The reduced short range storage is grounds for concern.
The actual volume of gas stored was already small relative to consumption and would have been soon exhausted, even sooner now !
I suspect that the short range storage involved a significant energy cost as the gas was liquified.
On a more positive note, electricity generation from wind has increased, and this usually displaces natural gas.
The recent cold weather has increased gas consumption, but it remains far below the recent average, which should help.
Demand destruction is here, the increased price is making both conservation and substituting wind power more attractive.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
It's not so much the reduced storage, it's the reduced injection capacity that concerns me. The volume was never very high, but the capacity was very useful when other things broke, like Rough or Langeled...
(Reuters) - Britain could face an energy supply crunch this decade as cheap coal encourages plant operators to race through generation hours before new EU environmental rules come into force, then shutter generating capacity ahead of schedule next year.
High gas prices and lack of clarity on incentives for investment in renewable energy are meanwhile seen hampering plans to replace about a fifth of the country's electricity generation with cleaner alternatives over the next 10 years.
Nine UK-based coal and oil fired plants with a combined generating capacity of 11.5 GW are due to close by 2015 or when they have completed 20,000 hours of operation for coal-fired power stations or 10,000 hours for oil-powered facilities - part of European Union efforts to cut harmful emissions.
But the owners of four plants, with a combined generation capacity of 6.1 gigawatts (GW) have already said they will close their plants by March 2013 as schemes to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the EU begin to bite.
Do you think any politician of any colour -- under current economic reasoning -- will allow the UK to have power blackouts just because of the piece of paper?
If we need the juice you can bet those plants will keep smokin' after their 20,000 hours are up.
The greater problem than the large combustion plant directive is the assumed longevity of the plants. Economically it's not worth maintaining a plant beyond it's likely date of obsolescence -- which for UK coal plants is not long after the date the coal plants ban comes into effect (which is also why the industry/the Government never made a great fuss about it when they agreed it!).
No major global player is going to significantly invest in the UK in the short term, which is when we actually need it, because the economic prospects for at least the next 10-20 years are not very good; and that assumes that the global economic crisis doesn't get any worse!
Storage now down to less than 30% and dropping, but by most common sense standards winter is nearly over, so the remaining stocks should last until the end of the cold weather.
What is more worrying is that most of our stocks will have been used up simply due to a slightly colder than average winter.
There has not been any significant dirsuption to imports as might be caused by war, coup, civil war, revolution, or terrorism.
That is we need almost all the storage capacity to cope with a nearly normal winter, and have almost nothing in reserve for any emergency that might affect supplies.
Hope they manage to refill it for NEXT winter !
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
RalphW wrote:Spot gas price spiked the last few days to over 80p a therm.
Demand is estimated at 360 mcm today, higher than the weather would normally indicate.
Is there an issue with electricity generation, that more, less efficient gas plants are being brought back on line?
As reported elswhere on these forums, some coal burning plants have to shut down very soon.
I wonder if any have closed prematurely ? or are only running at part load.
Whilst one might expect the owners of such coal burning plant to run it until the last legal and profitable hour, what if something expensive breaks ? I cant imagine costly repairs being authorised for equipment with such a short remaining life.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Perhaps my optimism was misplaced !
Storage now down to 24% and falling. Short term storage now tapped, long and medium term storage emptying at maximum rate, demand remains high, cold weather expected to continue.
Spot price remains at about 80 pence a therm.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
