Lord Louis Mountbatton
This guy has written a interesting albeit controversial piece on the possibility of major war after 2012 between major powers. I have some problems with his thesis but it is certainly thought provoking.
http://www.1913intel.com/2008/03/29/the ... r-in-2012/
A couple of comments.the probability of nuclear war occurring during the next 10 years is much greater than it has ever been in the past.
We might be able to ignore all of this if it were not for the conflict in the Middle East concerning Israel. Israel’s neighboring enemies are positioning themselves to destroy Israel once and for all. Hezbollah has acquired the ability to strike most of Israel with various kinds of missiles, thanks to Iran. Hamas has also acquired the ability to inflict missile damage on larger parts of Israel. Syria is working diligently on its missiles arsenal which includes chemical weapons. Iran is developing the ability to build nuclear bombs and the means to deliver them.
Effectively, Israel is going to be forced to defend itself with nuclear weapons at some point in the not too distant future. This will most likely occur when some kind of non-conventional weapon is used like a chemical warhead on a Syrian missile. Israel’s nuclear response will result in about 15 Million dead if you include Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinians (West Bank and Gaza.)
Obviously, this will not go over well with much of the world, and America will be blamed.
At this point Russia and China will quietly prepare for nuclear war against America. Preparation will probably take a couple of years - 1 to 4 years. I expect it to take 2 to 3 years. When the war comes it will start around 4AM (EDT) when everybody in America is at home in bed. Russian and Chinese submarines will quietly surround America and launch their missiles. They will take out command and control facilities, key military targets and the civilian leadership. Probably one or two submarine missiles will be used to detonate some nuclear bombs high in the atmosphere in order to generate an EMP. Effectively, most of America will now be without any kind of communication. They will have no idea what’s going on. If they’re not in an underground nuclear bunker already, then they will die if they live near a big city.
Once the submarine missiles and cruise start hitting their targets, ICBMs will be launched from Russia and China. Russian bombers will launch. Other military planes in Russia and China will be repositioned for survival.
Within 30 minutes from the first strike, ICBMs will to detonating all over America. Somewhere around half the U.S. population will die within a few days of this strike. Probably another 25% will die in the next few months.
My best estimate for a nuclear war starting is in years 2012 or 2013. Although the range of years possible is from 2010 to 2018. The 2012 estimate has nothing to do with Nostradamus or the end of Mayan calendar.
I assume that Israel will go to war with Hezbollah and Hamas in the Summer of 2008. Syria and Iran will not join this war according to Israeli intelligence. So it will not nuclear.
I assume that Hezbollah and Hamas will be ready to fight a new war in the Summer of 2010. Syria will join this war. This war will be a missile war with missiles raining down all over Israel. Syria will most likely launch missiles with chemical warheads. Israel’s response will be devastating.
The clocks starts ticking for retaliation on America from the Summer of 2010. How long will it take Russia and China to prepare for this war? At least a year, but probably 2 or 3 years.
In the movies at least some people make into underground nuclear bunkers. In real life that will not happen in the major metropolitan areas. People that don’t live too close to big cities and know what’s going on are going to survive. Other survivors will be lucky due to wind patterns. But most people will just die.
1) I accept his basic thesis that we are entering geopolitically unstable times and the chances of regionals war, including nucleur are rising.
2) while Europe is not a 'enemy' of America, it wouldn't risk its cities to protect America in a nucleur strike.
3) i question whether Syria would launch a chemical attack on isreal, it seems extremely unlikely.
4) food, energy and water scarcity are the demonic triplets which will lead to sharpening global tensions in the coming ten years and the rapid de-globalisation of the globalised economy/order.
5) A book i have just read regarding the huge looming issue of water scarcity (and how it affects food production) notes that the geopolitical flashpoints in the next 10 years are South Korea, Burma and India and Pakistan over Kashmire.
They posit a Chinese takeover of water, energy and mineral rich Burma by China, leading to potential war with India which would be diverted by Pakistan (which is being destablised by a growing Taliban...)
They argue that Iran and North Korea could act as geopolitical spoilers, stretching US resources to the limits while China strategically moves in on strategic areas of east Asia.
6) the prospect of a covert financialsed war between China and America are more likely than the hugely riskly nucleur strike, in my opinion.
Backing up my NK thesis, here is a great Asian Times article on Kims war plans...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/KF12Dg01.html
Kim will wipe out the communications networks of Japan, South Korea and America and exploit the primitiveness of NK to retake SK. If this occurs in a global context of multiple challenges to the USA, the US may not have the troops to protect SK. Anather thing to note is that SK regains control from USA in april 2012 (may or may not be sigificant)
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_ ... 92605.htmlSouth Korea will reclaim wartime operational control of its forces from the United States as of April 17, 2012, the two countries announced Friday.
What we are seeing in the two countries most likely to directly challenge the US or its close allies (isreal and SK) are the militersation of their domestic politics in possible preparation for war in the coming years.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KH07Ak01.htmlToday, however, there is a growing divide within the leadership between the reformists who want to lead Iran towards democracy, openness and freedom, and ultra-hardliners who want to take the country back centuries before the revolution, to the time of the Prophet Mohammad.
and
"The storm of control measures blowing over that country now was started by the power people in North Korea," a Japanese journalist, Jiro Ishimaru, has written. They "are doing everything they can to tighten social order because they see a crisis looming in the maintenance of the system".
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/KH01Dg01.htmlWith the power of the elite surrounding the Dear Leader "under close scrutiny", said Bechtol, many analysts believe "that the party and the military have consolidated power in the wake of Kim Jong-il's health issues".
I suspect that Kim has agreed to the military hawks demands for preparing for war in return for them agreeing to his sons succession when he dies, with the real power in the hands of the army.
