Current Oil Price

[biffvernon]

On this morning's Taking a Stand Garry Kasparov, chess grand master and enemy of Putin, had interesting things to say about the Russian economy and oil prices.

[RevdTess]

Still a week to go before February contract expires - then the March contract is $6 higher...

[Ben]

On this morning's Taking a Stand Garry Kasparov, chess grand master and enemy of Putin, had interesting things to say about the Russian economy and oil prices.

Excellent! highly recommended.

Still a week to go before February contract expires - then the March contract is $6 higher...

Thank you Tess. Watching our ticker going down to $36.22 I was getting worried for poor Mr Putin

[Ben]

Charts Predict: Oil Heading towards $17

The price of a barrel of oil could slump toward $25 and even lower as the economy continues to falter, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC Friday.

“We're still getting bearish signals, the implication is - this move's not over,” Roberts said.

Roberts' near-term view for the oil price is $29, but his “slightly longer-term” outlook is for $25 a barrel or lower.

“In the first quarter of 2009, you're in to the final phase of the down leg in the business cycle. So what we’re looking for is this to slow, the downtrend to slow. Where it's going to stop – best guess would be maybe between $17 and $25 a barrel,” he said.

Full story/interview, 16 Jan 2009
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28691239

[Vortex]

That Kasparov interview was excellent - an insight into Putin's Russia.

(http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00gl58x)

[Totally_Baffled]

Blimey the US is swimming in the stuff!

How much can they actually store before they start turming boats away??

[PS_RalphW]

So the US has 36 hours more stocks than usual at this time of year. Not exactly swimming in the stuff teratory by any reasonable measure.

US avaition fuel demand is down 12% year on year, overall demand down about 4% year on year. They order the stuff weeks in advance, and have mis-judged how much they needed.

[kenneal - lagger]

and have mis-judged how much they needed.

Or are they just saving up before they invade Iran or before the dollar bombs?

[Ben]

and have mis-judged how much they needed.

Or are they just saving up before they invade Iran or before the dollar bombs?

I'm embarrassed to say I found this unreferenced entry on Wikipedia (perhaps I should only be embarrassed coz I'm quoting it!). U.S. demand is down to 19.4m bpd, I believe.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

On January 2, 2009, the U.S. Energy Department said that it will begin buying approximately 12 million barrels of crude oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, replenishing supplies that were sold after hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The purchase will be funded by the roughly $600 million received in 2005 from the emergency sales.

[PS_RalphW]

WTI used to be premium grade of oil. It is now the cheapest grade spot price on

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

It is a local glut in the US which is keeping the price down.

Brent Blend 45.40
Tapis 50.48
Alaska North Slope 41.28
Dubai 1M 45.09
Louisiana Sweet 47.28
Urals 44.00
WTI 39.75
Oman 1M 45.03
Minas 52.73
Forties 44.80
Bonny Light 48.40

[biffvernon]

OPEC crude output falls to 29 million b/d in January: IEA

London (Platts)--11Feb2009
OPEC's crude production fell to 29.03 million b/d in January, down
950,000 b/d from 29.98 million b/d in December, the International Energy
Agency said Wednesday.

Excluding Iraq, the 11 OPEC members bound by the group's crude production
targets pumped some 1.81 million b/d above their combined target for the month
of 24.85 million b/d, the IEA said.

By far the biggest single fall in output came from the group's biggest
producer, Saudi Arabia, which cut supply to 8.1 million b/d from 8.4 million
b/d in December, the IEA said.

At a meeting in December, the OPEC-11 agreed a new collective target of
24.8 million b/d to come into effect from the start of this year.

Iraqi crude supply remained stable at 2.4 million b/d, with lower
domestic refinery runs offsetting higher Kirkuk exports from Ceyhan, the IEA
said.

The IEA said some OPEC countries' January reductions were due more to
unplanned stoppages, maintenance or export rescheduling, rather than voluntary
output restraint.

"However, several countries do appear to be progressively phasing in cuts
over the January-March period, making it likely that accurate assessment of
OPEC's intentions will only really become possible around the time of the next
scheduled OPEC meeting on March 15," the IEA said.

Installed OPEC crude capacity is now assessed at 34.6 million b/d,
compared with 35.8 million b/d last month, with the exit of Indonesia from
OPEC accounting for 850,000 b/d of this change.

http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/8350101.xml

[Ben]

Less than 10p a pint!

Economy woes push oil below $34

Oil prices have fallen by almost $2 a barrel to below $34 as doubts grow that a US stimulus package will reinvigorate America's economy. Claims for new unemployment benefit remaining close to record highs added to fears of the depth of recession.

Even an unexpected rise in retail sales was dismissed as a blip - attributed mainly to higher petrol prices. US light, sweet crude tumbled $1.96, more than 5%, to settle at $33.98 but London Brent added 19 cents to $44.47.

Full story BBC, 12 Feb 2009

[kenneal - lagger]

Less than 10p a pint!

I'm not surprised it's so cheap. Have you tasted it?

[DominicJ]

I'm not surprised it's so cheap. Have you tasted it?

Berkshires down south innit?

[PS_RalphW]

WTI is now trading as the cheapest blend by far.

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

The average price listed is about $45. WTI is $34, Tapis nearly $52.

Should we start tracking a different blend, perhaps Brent? That will
be closer to the price we are paying in the UK.

Petrol is back over 90p/litre.