Scottish PM Has Resigned.

[Mark]

The logical outcome of Brexit is a united Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales - it's just a matter of timescales....

I think this is very wrong.

Well, that's what a 'Forum' is about - people have different views....
I don't think that a united Ireland or independence for Scotland and Wales will happen anytime soon, but I believe all 3 are at varying stages of gestation... The break-up of Yugoslavia wasn't widely anticipated, Czechia and Slovakia went their own ways, West and East Germany united etc. etc. etc. Big changes happen if enough people want them to happen, regardless of the political and economic barriers....

[clv101]

I expect to see more changes to national borders in the 21st century than we saw in the 20th. Bold claim!

[Mark]

I expect to see more changes to national borders in the 21st century than we saw in the 20th. Bold claim!

I'm surprised that more haven't already happened in Africa & the Middle East, where the colonial powers drew straight lines on maps across natural and tribal boundaries...... Kurdistan, Palestine and Punjab are just a few of the places that would benefit from change.... and Ukraine will probably end up with a new border too...

[UndercoverElephant]

The logical outcome of Brexit is a united Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales - it's just a matter of timescales....

I think this is very wrong.

Well, that's what a 'Forum' is about - people have different views....
I don't think that a united Ireland or independence for Scotland and Wales will happen anytime soon, but I believe all 3 are at varying stages of gestation... The break-up of Yugoslavia wasn't widely anticipated, Czechia and Slovakia went their own ways, West and East Germany united etc. etc. etc. Big changes happen if enough people want them to happen, regardless of the political and economic barriers....

Nothing like enough people want Welsh Independence to happen. Not even the Welsh nationalists take it seriously - not in public, anyway. You are talking about a hard border between Chester and Chepstow, running right through the middle of the most anglicised part of Wales. It is 100% fantasy.

[kenneal - lagger]

I don't think you can compare Brexit and Scots independence. Brexit was/is about British independence whereas a large part of Scots independence is about Scotland being subsumed back into the EU. Scotsnats want independence from our current union where they have a considerable influence, you only have to look at the number of PMs, ministers and MPs who have hailed from Scotland, so that they can rejoin a union where they will have minimal influence being only two million people in a union of several hundred million, will be forced into a currency union and have to build a wall across our shared island.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/poli ... h-29253968

SNP leadership hopeful Ash Regan has announced an uncompromising plan to win Scottish independence as the race to replace to Nicola Sturgeon heats up.

The Edinburgh MSP today claimed a pro-independence majority at any election in Scotland should be enough to trigger negotiations to leave the UK.

The former minister, who has announced plans to stand for the top job, said she would be willing to invite Alex Salmond's Alba party to join an independence convention with the SNP if she became leader.

Regan insisted any pro-independence majority at a Westminster or Holyrood election should be taken as a mandate for independence and she would – if first minister – then invite the UK Government to negotiate Scotland’s departure from the union.

My bold. These people are delusional morons of the highest order. This is not a strategy for independence. The previous "strategy" ran into the ground because all potential UK governments have ruled out another referendum for the forseeable future. Arguing that the UK government "should" change its position on this is the political equivalent of pissing in the wind as a bold new idea after a previous few years of pissing in the wind ended badly.

The reality is that there is no path open to Scottish Independence, and the political question Scots actually should answer is who they want to run the Scottish government given that independence has been ruled out. And the answer to that question surely should not be the SNP, since they are hopelessly split on every important issue except for that they want independence.

“We will create a new vision of an independent Scotland. We will build coalitions, reach out across all of the society and secure a pro-independence majority, which cannot be ignored.”

There is no such thing. It will be ignored.

Regan added: “I propose that we take control of the process towards independence ourselves.

“If pro-independence parties – with a clear mandate for such actions in their manifestos – have more than 50% plus one of the votes cast in a Westminster or Holyrood election, this will be a clear instruction that Scotland wishes to be an independence nation.

“We will invite the Westminster Government to the Scottish Government to commence negotiations and a timeframe for Scotland’s withdrawal from the UK.”

And the UK government will tell them to f off. Again.

[dustiswhatweare]

Seems like the Scottish don't feel very good about a happy clapper being their supremo.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... t-backlash

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/s ... r-AA17Tnxe

SNP leadership candidate Ash Regan has said she would unilaterally declare Scottish independence if the party wins a majority of votes and seats north of the border in an election.

The Edinburgh Eastern MSP pledged to fight every future Westminster and Holyrood election on independence and claim a mandate for splitting the Union if nationalist parties win the most seats and votes.

Asked what she would do if the prime minister refuses to enter talks, Ms Regan said it has “nothing to do with the UK Government” and that she would declare independence anyway.

Ms Regan, who launched her leadership campaign shortly before nominations closed on Friday, said Scotland is “not going to be asking anyone’s permission in order to become self-governing”.

I so want her to win this. She will do for the SNP what Liz Truss has done for the tories. Expose the true extent of the delusion, so nobody can deny it ever again.

She insisted that a unilateral declaration would be recognised by the international community.

Well, Russia and Iran maybe. No...not even them.

[Potemkin Villager]

I so want her to win this. She will do for the SNP what Liz Truss has done for the tories. Expose the true extent of the delusion, so nobody can deny it ever again.

She insisted that a unilateral declaration would be recognised by the international community.

Well, Russia and Iran maybe. No...not even them.

Well we shall see, it certainly will probably prove to be at least as contentious as the Brexit saga.

[UndercoverElephant]

I so want her to win this. She will do for the SNP what Liz Truss has done for the tories. Expose the true extent of the delusion, so nobody can deny it ever again.

She insisted that a unilateral declaration would be recognised by the international community.

Well, Russia and Iran maybe. No...not even them.

Well we shall see, it certainly will probably prove to be at least as contentious as the Brexit saga.

Scottish independence certainly would, if it were to actually happen. But the probability of the international community recognising a unilateral Scottish declaration of independence is nil. There are zero historical examples of anything of the sort ever happening.

[Potemkin Villager]

I guess it depends how far the Scot Nats would be really prepared to try and escalate things
and how badly the national government reacted. The answers might be "Further than you might think" and
"Why change the habits of a lifetime?". I maintain that the model of these disputes is closely based on
the tried and tested technique of digging an ever deeper hole whilst painting yourself in a corner.

[UndercoverElephant]

It is becoming clearer how the SNP leadership election will play out. Kate Forbes has come out as morally opposed to gay marriage (no, I won't use the woke term "equal marriage", F off). As a result she cannot win, because the large woke component of the SNP vote will block it. Ash Regan won't win either, because her strategy for independence is even less realistic than the one Nicola Sturgeon just abandoned for being unrealistic. So Humza Yousaf will win. His strategy is to have "frank discussions with the yes movement", which is basically saying that, at least for now, independence is not achievable. This morning he fleshed that out by saying that the nationalists need a consistent and clear majority for independence, and then the political obstacles "will crumble away". This is just as unrealistic in the long term - the political obstacles will not crumble away - but it effectively kicks the issue into the long grass, since there is no prospect of achieving that clear and consistent majority if the version of independence in play is actually realistic, rather than avoiding difficult questions about economics, borders and EU membership. His problem is that this stance on independence will not be acceptable to the lunatic element of the SNP (as represented by Regan). They don't want realism; they want an anglophobia and fantasy.

All of this points to a decline in support for the SNP. I will make a prediction: Labour will take at least 20 seats from the SNP at the next general election and maybe 30.

[UndercoverElephant]

I guess it depends how far the Scot Nats would be really prepared to try and escalate things
and how badly the national government reacted. The answers might be "Further than you might think" and
"Why change the habits of a lifetime?". I maintain that the model of these disputes is closely based on
the tried and tested technique of digging an ever deeper hole whilst painting yourself in a corner.

The further the nationalists escalate things, the less support they will maintain. All the government in Westminster needs to do is appear reasonable but draw clear red lines and take appropriate action if they are crossed. Even a unilateral declaration of independence would see a significant chunk of support falling away, and any attempt to back this up with force would result in the majority of nationalists switching sides. Nothing like enough Scottish Nationalists would be willing to fight or support an IRA-style campaign. If they tried it, it would just turn the unionist majority both sides of the border into a potent force.

The core of the problem, I think, is that unlike the Irish, the Scots don't have a legitimate case for having got a bad deal out of the union. They get a very good deal. The nationalists will tell you a very different story, but they are liars.

[BritDownUnder]

I see one of the candidates has a very obviously Muslim name. One has to wonder the rather contradictory speeches that they will have to give if they win about being a 'proud Scot'.

[UndercoverElephant]

I see one of the candidates has a very obviously Muslim name. One has to wonder the rather contradictory speeches that they will have to give if they win about being a 'proud Scot'.

Not everybody with a muslim name believes Islam should take priority over all other things in life. Lots do, but assuming that applies to all of them would be stupid. He didn't choose his name.