Scottish PM Has Resigned.

[adam2]

A formal announcement is expected very shortly. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-64648879

[UndercoverElephant]

Scottish Nationalism has been comprehensively defeated for a generation. This was already the case in 2014, but the nationalists have been in denial ever since. This draws a line under it, even for the most extreme denialists. Whoever replaces her cannot simply continue her "strategy", because she resigned because that strategy had nowhere left to go. Trying to turn national elections into "de facto referendums" is pure fantasy.

I wonder if this will mark the beginning of a long decline in support for the SNP and a Labour recovery in Scotland.

[clv101]

Suspect this can only be good news for Labour in the upcoming GE. Whoever replaces her simply isn't going to the name recognition - and will be fighting Alba for the independence vote.

[Mark]

.....and will be fighting Alba for the independence vote.

https://ballotbox.scot/most-recent-polls

SNP - 36%
Alba - 3%

Alex Salmond's not gaining enough traction to change the picture very much.....

[UndercoverElephant]

.....and will be fighting Alba for the independence vote.

https://ballotbox.scot/most-recent-polls

SNP - 36%
Alba - 3%

Alex Salmond's not gaining enough traction to change the picture very much.....

It changes it enough to tip a few seats into Labour's hands, even at 3%.

[clv101]

Exactly, an SNP without Sturgeon might lose a few percentage points to Alba, in so doing lose the seat to Labour.

[UndercoverElephant]

Exactly, an SNP without Sturgeon might lose a few percentage points to Alba, in so doing lose the seat to Labour.

It's not just the loss of a well-known and respected name, and the lack of a convincing replacement. There's a more fundamental problem here, in that Scottish Nationalism really has been defeated for the forseeable future, and that leaves the SNP with no means of achieving the only goal that keeps it together as a party. I think that makes it very unattractive to younger votes, and trying to replace anglophobic pseudo-nationalism with woke extremism will cause more problems than it solves.

[BritDownUnder]

Scottish Nationalism is unfortunately not going to go away. I find the constant anti-English undertones a bit grinding. Maybe the SNP don't really want independence if they can continue getting a good deal from the UK gov. Independence will mean an application for EU membership over Spanish objections and maybe even NATO membership over Turkish/Spanish objections.

I feel Scotland is a crucial part of the UK and the UK (England and Wales really) will be much diminished if the nutters and haters get their way.

Good riddance to her but she probably has directorships or memberships of public committees lined up.

[clv101]

I feel Scottish independence is all but inevitable - but don't expect it for at least a decade, more likely 2 or 3 decades. It's all part of the more general collapse narrative, geopolitical spheres of influence are on a shrinking trajectory.

[Mark]

I feel Scottish independence is all but inevitable - but don't expect it for at least a decade, more likely 2 or 3 decades. It's all part of the more general collapse narrative, geopolitical spheres of influence are on a shrinking trajectory.

This is my view too....

Makes me laugh that those same people who supported Brexit so strongly (leaving a political and economic union) are the same people who say that Scotland should stay in the UK (another political and economic union).... The logical outcome of Brexit is a united Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales - it's just a matter of timescales....

[UndercoverElephant]

I feel Scottish independence is all but inevitable - but don't expect it for at least a decade, more likely 2 or 3 decades. It's all part of the more general collapse narrative, geopolitical spheres of influence are on a shrinking trajectory.

I couldn't disagree more strongly. I think Scottish Independence is basically dead, and not just for the medium term. I can't see anything about the "collapse narrative" that even makes it more likely, let alone inevitable. I think as collapse unfolds, defensible borders are going to become ever more important. And Great Britain has a moat. Splitting it into separate sovereign entities would be a very bad idea, and I believe the majority of Scots will continue to believe that.

I'd be interested in digging deeper to find the origin of our diametrically opposed views on this. What exactly do you mean by "the more general collapse narrative"?

For me, the situation is that while our civilisation is going to collapse - that is our economic system, many of our socio-cultural values and maybe even our cosmological and epistemological foundations- sovereign entities of some sort must persist. We cannot go back to tribalism/clans, and somebody or something has to hold sovereign power. It immediately follows that borders must be defined and defended. It is this which will ensure some sort of civilisation emerges from the collapse, I think. And I think it is this sort of realism which will ensure the UK does not break up, even as it is forced into very radical change. (As always, NI is an exception.)

[Potemkin Villager]

sovereign entities of some sort must persist. We cannot go back to tribalism/clans, and somebody or something has to hold sovereign power.

It would be nice to believe this but cascading failed states might be a more likely outcome.

[RevdTess]

I feel Scottish independence is all but inevitable - but don't expect it for at least a decade, more likely 2 or 3 decades. It's all part of the more general collapse narrative, geopolitical spheres of influence are on a shrinking trajectory.

This is my view too....

Makes me laugh that those same people who supported Brexit so strongly (leaving a political and economic union) are the same people who say that Scotland should stay in the UK (another political and economic union).... The logical outcome of Brexit is a united Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales - it's just a matter of timescales....

And mine. Like you I've always found it intriguing that so many people who wanted to leave the EU and were immune to arguments about the economic cost because 'it's all about sovereignty and freedom' completely reverse their arguments when it comes to Scotland.

I've always assumed it must be more to do with culture wars. The real goal is to defeat wokeness, and sovereignty and freedom are only tools for that goal. So Scottish sovereignty must always be opposed, not because sovereignty is bad per se, but because Scotland is generally woke, and wokeness is bad.

Personally I think the loss of Sturgeon is a massive setback for independence. But then I thought that when Salmond left as well. Perhaps there will be someone with the charisma to rise to the challenge. Maybe my favourite politician Mhairi Black?

[UndercoverElephant]

sovereign entities of some sort must persist. We cannot go back to tribalism/clans, and somebody or something has to hold sovereign power.

It would be nice to believe this but cascading failed states might be a more likely outcome.

It is inevitable that some states will fail, and be replaced by regions where there is either anarchy or new sovereign warlords. Some places are close to that already. But I can't see why it is likely to happen everywhere. The details are everything - both the geographic/geo-political details and the political-sociocultural details. How defendable are the borders? How resilient is the constitution? How inhabitable is the land? How insane/brainwashed are the general population? For example, I am struggling to imagine Japan failing as a state.

[UndercoverElephant]

The logical outcome of Brexit is a united Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales - it's just a matter of timescales....

I think this is very wrong. It is true about Ireland, but completely untrue about both Scotland and Wales. Welsh independence is a logical outcome of brexit?? Wales voted for brexit, and it is only the Welsh-speaking parts of Wales that can muster a majority for independence. And it is Brexit that has made Scottish Independence almost impossible. Their chance was 2014. Had they voted to leave the UK then brexit would have caused an "the Irish Border Problem" on the Scottish border as well, and remain would have won the referendum. But they didn't, and now leaving the UK would set up a hard border between Berwick and Gretna. And that is simply not going to happen. The Scots won't vote for it.