General Election 2024

[Mark]

Energy and Environment - Reform UK
https://www.reformparty.uk/energy-and-environment

Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies.
The UK cost of Net Zero has been estimated by the National Grid and others at some £2 trillion or more. It is so big that no one really knows. The public sector is spending billions each year with no accountability or transparency. Ditching Net Zero would save the public sector some £20 billion per year for the next 25 years, possibly more.

Our energy market needs Reform.
We all care about the environment. Our air has never been cleaner. We want to use technology to do our bit. But Net Zero is the wrong bit, at the wrong price, in the wrong timeframe. Westminster’s obsession with Net Zero is damaging our livelihoods and the economy. It has sent energy bills soaring. Made it harder for businesses to compete. It is costing tens of thousands of jobs and increasing inflation.

Net zero means reducing man made CO2 emissions to stop climate change. It can’t. Climate change has happened for millions of years, before man made CO2 emissions, and will always change. We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it. Up to 10 times more people die of cold than warmth. In Roman Britain some 2,000 years ago, it was 2 degrees warmer than now. Grapes for wine were grown in Yorkshire.

CO2 is essential for photosynthesis to enable plant growth. CO2 only represents 0.04% of the atmosphere; the average garden greenhouse has 3 times more! The UK produces only 1% of global CO2 emissions, yet China produces 27%. China & India are building hundreds of coal fired power stations. Even the IPCC admits Net Zero would make no difference to sea level rise for 200-1,000 years; in other words they do not have a clue.

Instead, Net Zero sends our money abroad and damages critical industries like steel production. The government has turned Britain from being an exporter of oil and gas into a net importer. They have bet our future on unreliable wind and solar power and destroyed our energy security. It’s time for a common sense energy strategy.

Critical reforms needed in the first 100 days:

Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies.
The UK cost of Net Zero has been estimated by the National Grid and others at some £2 trillion or more. It is so big that no one really knows. The public sector is spending billions each year with no accountability or transparency. Ditching Net Zero would save the public sector some £20 billion per year for the next 25 years, possibly more.

Scrap Annual £10 Billion of Renewable Energy Subsidies.
Achieve this through equivalent taxes on them. Renewables are not cheaper. Our bills have increased dramatically in line with the huge increase in renewables capacity over the last 15 years.

Cheap, Secure Energy.
We must use the energy treasure under our feet. Start fast-track licences of North Sea gas and oil. Grant shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years. Then enable major production when safety is proven, with local compensation schemes. The value of shale gas is potentially hundreds of billions over 30 years to the taxpayer. This could transform our nations fortunes and ensure prosperity for generations to come.

Thereafter:

Cleaner Energy from New Technology.
Fast-track clean nuclear energy with new small modular reactors, built in Britain. Increase and incentivise UK lithium mining for electric batteries, Combined Cycle gas turbines, clean synthetic fuel and clean coal mining.
Energy & Environment Pledges Savings = £30 billion pa

CLEANER ENERGY FROM NEW TECHNOLOGIES = COMBINED CYCLE GAS TURBINES, CLEAN SYNTHETIC FUEL AND CLEAN COAL MINING ????
HOW ANYONE ON POWERSWITCH COULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR THIS DANGEROUS MUMBO-JUMBO IS TOTALLY BEYOND ME.

[Potemkin Villager]

A truly Trumpian document! Many will believe it.

It makes Labour's economic plans for deregulating the City seem almost rational and sensible in comparison.

I am coming to the conclusion all political parties are essentially psychotic mass extinction cults encouraging a willing general public to drink the poison Kool Aid.

[UndercoverElephant]

I am coming to the conclusion all political parties are essentially psychotic mass extinction cults encouraging a willing general public to drink the poison Kool Aid.

No political party I am aware of is anything other than 100% psychotic (ie detached from reality). None of them are offering anything even remotely like what I want. I am therefore reduced to what I'd call strategic voting rather than tactical. In the case of Reform, the strategy is to blow up politics as we currently know it. And I think it is important to note that something similar is happening across most of Europe, as well as in the US.

[clv101]

The government has turned Britain from being an exporter of oil and gas into a net importer.

That's a new one on me! It was the government that peaked North Sea oil & gas?

[Default0ptions]

The government has turned Britain from being an exporter of oil and gas into a net importer.

That's a new one on me! It was the government that peaked North Sea oil & gas?

Wow - we can alter geophysical constraints by voting the right way?

[Ralphw2]

To me the most interesting constituency to watch, is the new one of Waveney Valley, on the Norfolk Suffolk border. The IPSOS poll puts it as a close call between Greens and Reform, with Tories third. I wonder if this is a surrogate for the old Norfolk Suffolk cultural rivalries. In my constituency IPSOS has Labour leading narrowly over the tories, but the previous MRP poll gave a stronger lead to the LDs. I think this shows these polls do not have enough data to give reliable results at the individual constituency level.

[UndercoverElephant]

...the only thing that could help Labour now is if Murdoch et al come out in full throated support in the next week or so, which they may well do, if just to buy themselves some influence and access to Starmer's government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00rgq24xvo

A billionaire who gave the Conservatives £500,000 before the last general election has told the BBC he will vote Labour for the first time in his life next month.

John Caudwell, the founder of Phones 4U, described Rishi Sunak as an “absolute dud” and said the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer “just really hits the spot with a lot of issues with me”.

In that ballpark.

[Default0ptions]

...the only thing that could help Labour now is if Murdoch et al come out in full throated support in the next week or so, which they may well do, if just to buy themselves some influence and access to Starmer's government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00rgq24xvo

A billionaire who gave the Conservatives £500,000 before the last general election has told the BBC he will vote Labour for the first time in his life next month.

John Caudwell, the founder of Phones 4U, described Rishi Sunak as an “absolute dud” and said the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer “just really hits the spot with a lot of issues with me”.

In that ballpark.

Yes! Democracy is still the best government that money can buy!

[mr brightside]

HOW ANYONE ON POWERSWITCH COULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR THIS DANGEROUS MUMBO-JUMBO IS TOTALLY BEYOND ME.

If i decide to vote i'm voting for them. Understand though, it won't be off the back of any manifesto or political leaning, it will be because i'm sick to the back teeth of the same old lying and bullshitting. I think it's time for an entirely different kind of bullshit.

[oobers]

There are pros and cons. FPTP requires politicians to make coalitions before the vote, and the public votes for the coalition. PR forces politicians to make coalitions after the vote, and the public has no say.

Personally I wouldn't vote green even if we had PR, for reasons already mentioned.

That’s how it works, sure. But coalition building before the event consists of identifying candidates who will toe the line and cancelling anyone who doesn’t fit the leadership agenda. Coalition in government gives the minor partner some real bargaining power. The Greens in Germany have accomplished this and preserved some proper green credentials.
If Labour do get into power with huge numbers of MP’s but a tiny share of the popular vote, and minor parties get significant shares of vote but few or no MPs, I think PR will become a big public debate and one Labour can’t ignore.

[UndercoverElephant]

That’s how it works, sure. But coalition building before the event consists of identifying candidates who will toe the line and cancelling anyone who doesn’t fit the leadership agenda. Coalition in government gives the minor partner some real bargaining power. The Greens in Germany have accomplished this and preserved some proper green credentials.
If Labour do get into power with huge numbers of MP’s but a tiny share of the popular vote, and minor parties get significant shares of vote but few or no MPs, I think PR will become a big public debate and one Labour can’t ignore.

It is likely to become a major issue internally for Labour, but probably not until such time as it looks like they are heading towards defeat under FPTP.

[Mark]

The government has turned Britain from being an exporter of oil and gas into a net importer.

That's a new one on me! It was the government that peaked North Sea oil & gas?

Wow - we can alter geophysical constraints by voting the right way?

Just to confirm, it's Reform peddling this utter nonsense, not me

[UndercoverElephant]

https://archive.is/yJNeJ#selection-2923.4-2927.137

Telegraph: Sunak to lose seat in Tory wipeout, major poll predicts

Exclusive survey for The Telegraph also shows party on track to slump to 53 seats with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out

Lab 516
Con 53
LD 50
Ref 0

Other polling analyses in recent weeks have had the Tories slumping markedly, sometimes below 100 seats. But none have had them performing quite this badly.
This is the first poll of its kind to forecast Labour to win more than 500 seats. No other poll has predicted the Tories would win so few seats.
The polling from Savanta for The Telegraph consulted around 18,000 people between June 7 and June 18, capturing views throughout the last fortnight of the election campaign.
The analysis comes from a method called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification, or MRP, which allows pollsters to take survey results and predict results in individual seats.
In simple terms, it involves talking to many more people than a typical poll - around ten times more - and drilling down into the demographic details of both respondents and constituencies.
More than a hundred seats are predicted to be won by such narrow margins that the pollster believes they remain up for grabs.
A small improvement in the Tory vote share could have a marked impact on their seat total.

[Mark]

Meanwhile.., over in France there's also major trouble for Les Republicains (their equivalent to the Tories)...

Leader of France's conservative Les Republicains sacked for trying to strike electoral alliance with Marine Le Pen's far-right group - after he locked himself inside his party headquarters amid rebellion by colleagues
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rters.html

The same will happen here if the Tories get too weak...
They'll eventually get into bed with Reform and regroup...

[clv101]

Lab 516
Con 53
LD 50
Ref 0

That's nonsense! These polling companies are either overtly trying the manipulate the election or are so deeply buried in 'model land' they've lost all touch with reality.

There is zero chance the Tories will be as low as 53 seats and zero chance Labour will be as high as 516!

I think these polls need an additional layer of 'expert elicitation', a deep dive into a dozen or so bellwether seats with people who really understand the political landscape in that constituency. I'm not such a person but it's certainly my expectation that, Louth and Horncastle will be Tory, I grew up they, visit regularly, I know the area and people and they aren't about to return Labour - yet this poll paints them red.

Can't wait to find out if I'm right!