General Election 2024

[dustiswhatweare]

What Starmer has done, considering where the Labour party was when he took over, is quite the achievement. It's also quite an achievement what the Tory party have done, that is if you don't like them much. I sincerely hope that the 'calming' measures undertaken by Starmer do lead to a massive win because the Tories need to be crushed, utterly crushed and no other party is in a place to do that.
I sincerely hope this '1945' type opportunity is not wasted. I find Starmer difficult to read, could go either way.

[UndercoverElephant]

Yet to hear the B word mentioned.

Brexit? What is there left to say? It's history.

[Ralphw2]

Latest yougov MRP poll has

Green 8
LD 15
Reform 17
Con 18
Lab 38

This is looking close to the LD becoming the official opposition

[UndercoverElephant]

Latest yougov MRP poll has

Green 8
LD 15
Reform 17
Con 18
Lab 38

This is looking close to the LD becoming the official opposition

Where did you get that information from? I can't find it. The Lab figure is wrong. So is the green figure - no way the greens get 8 seats.

[Ralphw2]

That is percent of the vote, not seats. I am just extrapolating from past seat predictions from polls

[Potemkin Villager]

Brexit? What is there left to say? It's history.

We shall see.

[UndercoverElephant]

That is percent of the vote, not seats. I am just extrapolating from past seat predictions from polls

That isn't an MRP then. MRP polls usually have 50,000+ people surveyed, all over the country.,

[Ralphw2]

Yougov confused me by saying they were using MRP methodology for calculating percentages on their regular poll, which they have been doing for the last 3 polls. The swings are more likely to be noise than I realised.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... dApp_Other

Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide placed a £100 bet on a July election just three days before the prime minister named the date, the Guardian can reveal.

The Gambling Commission is understood to have launched an inquiry after Craig Williams, the prime minister’s parliamentary private secretary, who became an MP in 2019, placed a bet with the bookmaker Ladbrokes on Sunday 19 May in his local constituency of Montgomeryshire.

On 22 May, Sunak made the surprise announcement that a general election would be held on 4 July.

In a statement, Williams said: “I’ve been contacted by a journalist about Gambling Commission inquiries into one of my accounts and thought it best to be totally transparent.

“I put a flutter on the general election some weeks ago. This has resulted in some routine inquiries and I confirm I will fully cooperate with these.

“I don’t want it to be a distraction from the campaign, I should have thought how it looks.”

[clv101]

Hard to overestimate Tory lunacy these days, why would he do that? For a few hundred quid?

[Mark]

Electoral Calculus before this news:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... nd+Glyndwr

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr - CON 59%; LAB 41%

A rare safe Tory seat that could now flip ?
Will be interesting to come back to these predictions after the election

[oobers]

I'll give my vote to a party that wants to enact PR - either Libdems or Green depending which candidate I prefer, but I know very little about either at the moment. We really need proper PR to get some meaningful political debate going. The sense I've got is that all the parties now just try to be all things to all people in the hope they can get some MP's by bein inoffensive - a race to mediocrity. No minority views are properly represented, even by the Greens any more. They used to be a protest party that concentrated on proper ecology. Now they try and wrap 'climate action' in with more palatable policies like NHS spending and water company public ownership. I would hope that PR would mean minority votes get MP representation, and that the minor parties can take their masks off and speak honestly about the issues we face.

[mr brightside]

Brexit? What is there left to say? It's history.

It's never going to be over for remainers, they still have a lot to say.

[UndercoverElephant]

The sense I've got is that all the parties now just try to be all things to all people in the hope they can get some MP's by bein inoffensive - a race to mediocrity.

That certainly isn't what the tories are doing. They are appealing only to their core vote, with no regard for what anybody else thinks. The Greens are appealing to the idealistic/naive, with no regard for anybody who cares about actual reality.

No minority views are properly represented, even by the Greens any more. They used to be a protest party that concentrated on proper ecology.

The greens stopped being about ecology over 30 years ago.

I would hope that PR would mean minority votes get MP representation, and that the minor parties can take their masks off and speak honestly about the issues we face.

There are pros and cons. FPTP requires politicians to make coalitions before the vote, and the public votes for the coalition. PR forces politicians to make coalitions after the vote, and the public has no say.

Personally I wouldn't vote green even if we had PR, for reasons already mentioned.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... n-campaign

The Conservative on-the-ground election campaign is descending into “disarray” amid a chronic lack of volunteers and strategy and an increasing sense of panic in formerly ultra-safe seats, insiders and opponents have told the Guardian.

Some areas have struggled to muster people to knock on doors and deliver leaflets due to a combination of a shrinking and ageing membership, a calamitous fall in the number of Conservative councillors and disillusionment with the election campaign.

Instead the party has become heavily reliant on using paid-for delivery to send out large numbers of election leaflets that are often nationally focused and less relevant to local issues.

Initially the Conservatives were officially basing their campaign plans on a so-called 80:20 election strategy – defending their 80 most marginal seats and trying to win 20 target seats from the opposition.

One Tory official said this was long gone: “The 80:20 plan no longer exists, if it ever did. We are diverting resources to safer and safer seats. People in seats which have been Conservative forever are basically shitting themselves. There is no strategy – it’s pretty much disarray.”