Coming shortage of UK generating capacity?

[adam2]

Only ten years ago????? If that’s one of those 100 year events so common nowadays, we’re due for another one soon.

Possibly yes, such events are rare but largely random.
Large areas were blacked out last time, but not for that long.
The National Grid prepare for the "largest credible loss" of electricity supply, either the largest generating unit in use at the time, or the loss of half the interconnector from France.
Such failures occur fairly regularly and would be unnoticed by consumers.

If however TWO such failures occur within a few minutes, then the frequency will drop and trigger automatic starting of OCGT and diesel generating plant.
If this does not arrest the fall in frequency, then large areas are automatically blacked by frequency relays, this is a very quick and fully automatic system. There is no question of any warning, consultation or exceptions.

[woodburner]

Bit of a rat-bag for someone expecting to charge their EV to get to work the next day.

[BritDownUnder]

How much new generating capacity, renewable or otherwise is under construction and will be on line by next winter?

A good question. No large CCGT gas power plants are currently under construction. There probably is not gas to run them anyway when would be badly needed.

No doubt some solar and wind is under construction and will be completed by next winter. I have heard that there is a lot of offshore wind, about 2 GW is being developed and will be completed in 2018. This was surprisingly useful during the recent crisis.

There are some HVDC cable links with other European countries being developed but I think the scheduled completion dates are 2019 (To Belgium), 2020 and 2022 (both to Norway but one is supposedly illegal under Norwegian Law so we shall wait and see about that one).

No doubt there are 'generator farms' of small reciprocating engines being put up about the place which are real last resort generation.

Some small scale hydro plants are possibly being developed at various locations in the UK.

And finally... we come to nuclear. Hinkley Point C. If you thought that you Americans were slow at building nukes then let me introduce you to the experts... the Europeans. Two European Pressurised Reactors (EPR) are under construction in the UK. These are the fifth and sixth EPRs under construction and the first four are, you guessed it, still under construction. Even the Chinese can't seem to finish these EPRs as they are working on numbers three and four. Hinkley Point C may be ready by 2025. Note however that the first EPR in Finland was started in 2005 and is still not generating electricity.

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

Building power plants is very complicated. This article is about the UK not being able to build power plants but I think it applies to everyone. Someone I worked with on the current project was working on the West Burton CCGT project in the UK and said that sabotage carried out by subcontractors to prolong their employment delayed the project by many months. CCTV cameras had to be fitted to prevent it.

[vtsnowedin]

Well I hope all you UK dissensions can get visas to come to New England on the last boat or plane out next winter. It would be funny to have all of us with our ugly faces(RC excepted) in the same room trying to get along with each other.

[clv101]

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

No, but demand will likely continue to fall. Remember demand is already down by around two Hinkley C's worth since the 2005 peak. Seems to be a lot quicker and cheaper to cut demand than increase supply.

In fact it's been the falling demand, more than anything else, that has kept the lights on this last decade. It's very unlikely today's infrastructure could meet 2005 demand.

[vtsnowedin]

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

No, but demand will likely continue to fall. Remember demand is already down by around two Hinkley C's worth since the 2005 peak. Seems to be a lot quicker and cheaper to cut demand than increase supply.

In fact it's been the falling demand, more than anything else, that has kept the lights on this last decade. It's very unlikely today's infrastructure could meet 2005 demand.

Not knowing I have to ask was that decrease in demand from the switch from incandescent bulbs to LED's etc. or the loss of major factories that consumed large chunks of electricity?

[BritDownUnder]

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

No, but demand will likely continue to fall. Remember demand is already down by around two Hinkley C's worth since the 2005 peak. Seems to be a lot quicker and cheaper to cut demand than increase supply.

In fact it's been the falling demand, more than anything else, that has kept the lights on this last decade. It's very unlikely today's infrastructure could meet 2005 demand.

Not knowing I have to ask was that decrease in demand from the switch from incandescent bulbs to LED's etc. or the loss of major factories that consumed large chunks of electricity?

I can't dispute that Negawatts (increasing energy efficiency) are better than Megawatts (increasing energy generation) and the capital cost could be lower too.

I would guess without any evidence I might add that the decrease is due to 2008 global financial crisis in the first few years from 2008 then possibly LED bulbs and finally some half hearted government insulation schemes being first introduced by the final years of the Labour government and then being withdrawn by David Cameron. Or it could be that electricity is becoming increasingly unaffordable to many people and they have to cut back consumption. The fall in electricity consumption seems to have slowed and in the last year 2015 to 2016 increased a very small amount according to DUKES 5.1.3.

The real supply problem is the displacement of coal (which is easy to store) by gas (which the UK has problems storing) with no apparent end in sight.

[adam2]

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

No, but demand will likely continue to fall. Remember demand is already down by around two Hinkley C's worth since the 2005 peak. Seems to be a lot quicker and cheaper to cut demand than increase supply.

In fact it's been the falling demand, more than anything else, that has kept the lights on this last decade. It's very unlikely today's infrastructure could meet 2005 demand.

Demand has indeed fallen significantly, but I do not share your optimism that it will continue to fall.
I expect demand to remain roughly static, or perhaps to increase moderately over the next few years, for the following reasons.

A growing population, even if a change in government policy reduces FUTURE growth, consider the large number of children at present whom will grow up and consume electricity.

The growth in the private rented housing sector, electric heating tends to be favoured over gas in such premises.

Increasing popularity of electric vehicles. I do not expect any large scale or sudden switch to EVs, but consider it possible that say 1% of the population might obtain one in the next few years.
That would be very roughly 600,000 EVs. They wont all be charged at once of course, but at an average charging input of say 1kw, that is an increase in demand of 600,000kw or 0.6GW.
Increasing the maximum demand from perhaps 50GW up to 50.6GW is not that significant, but neither is it negligible.

Very significant energy savings have resulted from more efficient lighting, refrigeration, and home entertainments. Further significant gains seem unlikely, and may actually be reversed by demands for larger and more numerous appliances.

An aging population may also increase electricity demand as older people in existing rural homes find coal or logs to be too much trouble and use electric heating instead.

And of course electric public transport is slowly spreading, good for reducing pollution but also increasing electricity demand.
An electric train can use an average 1MW, a thousand more electric trains over the whole country could add perhaps 0.5GW to demand (not 1GW because they wont all draw power at the same time.)

[clv101]

Suffice it to say that there will be no new large scale despatchable generation available in the UK before next winter.

No, but demand will likely continue to fall. Remember demand is already down by around two Hinkley C's worth since the 2005 peak. Seems to be a lot quicker and cheaper to cut demand than increase supply.

In fact it's been the falling demand, more than anything else, that has kept the lights on this last decade. It's very unlikely today's infrastructure could meet 2005 demand.

Demand has indeed fallen significantly, but I do not share your optimism that it will continue to fall.
I expect demand to remain roughly static, or perhaps to increase moderately over the next few years, for the following reasons.

A growing population, even if a change in government policy reduces FUTURE growth, consider the large number of children at present whom will grow up and consume electricity.

The rate of population growth in the future is likely to be much slower than the rate over the last decade or so, when the significant fall in electricity demand occurred.

The growth in the private rented housing sector, electric heating tends to be favoured over gas in such premises.

Again, the big growth in this sector occurred recently, as electricity demand fell. Any further growth in private rented housing is sure to be slower than of late.

Increasing popularity of electric vehicles. I do not expect any large scale or sudden switch to EVs, but consider it possible that say 1% of the population might obtain one in the next few years.
That would be very roughly 600,000 EVs. They wont all be charged at once of course, but at an average charging input of say 1kw, that is an increase in demand of 600,000kw or 0.6GW.
Increasing the maximum demand from perhaps 50GW up to 50.6GW is not that significant, but neither is it negligible.

Agreed, any plausible growth in EVs just isn't that big a deal.

Very significant energy savings have resulted from more efficient lighting, refrigeration, and home entertainments. Further significant gains seem unlikely, and may actually be reversed by demands for larger and more numerous appliances.

Possibly.

An aging population may also increase electricity demand as older people in existing rural homes find coal or logs to be too much trouble and use electric heating instead.

I think an ageing population actually uses less electricity - maybe not in the home but through lower economic activity, less employment, lower consumption etc.

And of course electric public transport is slowly spreading, good for reducing pollution but also increasing electricity demand.
An electric train can use an average 1MW, a thousand more electric trains over the whole country could add perhaps 0.5GW to demand (not 1GW because they wont all draw power at the same time.)

The glacial pace of rail electrification is unlikely to have significant impact over the next decade.

The real big impact though is the economy. If the economy grows slower or returns to recession (as I think is more likely than not) then electricity demand can be expect to fall further.

Over the next say five years, I demand to reduce further, probably at a similar rate as the past decade.

[kenneal - lagger]

....The glacial pace of rail electrification is unlikely to have significant impact over the next decade......

In the next year the current (no pun intended) phase of the GWR electrification out to Newbury and Didcot from Paddington will take place but then it will stall for a few years until the government coughs up enough money for the system to be electrified out to Swansea and Penzance. They have bi-mode trains to cover the non electrified track. I'm not sure that there are any other schemes on the books at the moment.

[adam2]

Bit of a rat-bag for someone expecting to charge their EV to get to work the next day.

Not really, the last power failure caused by two almost simultaneous generating plant failures was widespread but of fairly short duration, and the impact on vehicle charging would have been negligible.

[johnhemming2]

I don't think commuting journeys are normally that long that someone would need a daily charge to be able to commute. One theory of EVs is that they provide backup capacity for the grid.

[kenneal - lagger]

From the number of cars whistling past Junction 13 of the M4 in the direction of London in the mornings there are plenty of people commuting at least 40 or 50 miles each way every day in this area.

[BritDownUnder]

Interesting story in the Daily Mail about Russia being interested in undersea cables (mainly fibre optics apparently). If they knocked out the HVDC connections to France and Holland they could slice off 3GW of generation (as the UK mostly imports) at a stroke.

Of course they could just have a few 'gas pipeline problems' and achieve the same result by cutting off Europe's gas supply.

[kenneal - lagger]

Interesting story in the Daily Mail about Russia being interested in undersea cables (mainly fibre optics apparently). If they knocked out the HVDC connections to France and Holland they could slice off 3GW of generation (as the UK mostly imports) at a stroke.

Of course they could just have a few 'gas pipeline problems' and achieve the same result by cutting off Europe's gas supply.

I'm sure that Germany checked with the Russians that their gas supply wouldn't be cut off before they expelled all four, was it?, Russian diplomats.