This is an edited re-post of a topic that existed before the forums were hit by a virus in June 2005. Please feel free to add comments at the end, however if you are reading this soon after it was posted, it's likely that more 'old' replies will be added in the next hour or so and therefore please wait before replying a) to see if your point will be covered and b) to let the original sequence of posts make sense. Thank you.
Current UK population stands at about 60 million, this equates to 244 people per square Km.
Before 1800 the population of the UK was approx 11 million.
This increase has been fueled by oil, fossil fuels.
Will we face high levels of starvation to return to those historic levels when the oil runs out?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/society_cu ... tion.shtml
[PVpost] How do we feed 60 million people without oil
Moderator: Peak Moderation
[PVpost] How do we feed 60 million people without oil
Last edited by DamianB on 24 Jun 2005, 10:33, edited 1 time in total.
We don't - is my short answer.
Immediately Post Peak, or even pre-peak, energy prices will increase significantly, also causing inflation to rise. As a result, some parts of our society, particularly the elderly poor, will ration themselves in terms of both energy for warmth and food, and as a consequence, as happens every hard winter, death rates amongst the elder will increase. Except that it may not affect just a few thousands of tens of thousands, but possibly hundreds of thousands.
Interestingly, people living in traditional multi-generation families will be much better off than those in nuclear families.Later, as energy prices, inflation\, unemployment and perhaps reductions in benefits and pensions (since Government income will decline significantly) all bite at the same time, this tendency to increased death rates will spread to other groups and may eventually lead to population reduction of some millions of people.
On an individual level, I would say, this is probably the best time to take advantage of high house prices to sell up, get a group together, related or not, and buy a farm or any other type of local business, which will be likely to be in demand by the local community in years to come. Anyway, that's what we are doing.
Immediately Post Peak, or even pre-peak, energy prices will increase significantly, also causing inflation to rise. As a result, some parts of our society, particularly the elderly poor, will ration themselves in terms of both energy for warmth and food, and as a consequence, as happens every hard winter, death rates amongst the elder will increase. Except that it may not affect just a few thousands of tens of thousands, but possibly hundreds of thousands.
Interestingly, people living in traditional multi-generation families will be much better off than those in nuclear families.Later, as energy prices, inflation\, unemployment and perhaps reductions in benefits and pensions (since Government income will decline significantly) all bite at the same time, this tendency to increased death rates will spread to other groups and may eventually lead to population reduction of some millions of people.
On an individual level, I would say, this is probably the best time to take advantage of high house prices to sell up, get a group together, related or not, and buy a farm or any other type of local business, which will be likely to be in demand by the local community in years to come. Anyway, that's what we are doing.
I agree that we'll see some natual population decline, post peak, and alas probably some rather bitter-tasting eviction of none Uk pasport holders (which the BNP and make hey out of....)
But I don't see this being a huge reduction from the current total. But nor do I see a huge problem providing basic foodstuffs for this;50m brits using non-fossil argriculture.
There has been a fair bit of work done on assesing Uk food self sufficiency, and it's not too bleak - esp when you factor in how many calories we eat now verses how many we actually need.
I don't say it'll will be easy, only that I don't see a starvation-induced cull of 40m+ brits.
In many ways, we are fortunate in the Uk that (by chance) we haven't yet reached a population level that is grossly unsustainable for both post-peak eneregy and food needs.
Other countries, like Egypt, simply cannot feed their population without massive imports - what's will there fate be....
But I don't see this being a huge reduction from the current total. But nor do I see a huge problem providing basic foodstuffs for this;50m brits using non-fossil argriculture.
There has been a fair bit of work done on assesing Uk food self sufficiency, and it's not too bleak - esp when you factor in how many calories we eat now verses how many we actually need.
I don't say it'll will be easy, only that I don't see a starvation-induced cull of 40m+ brits.
In many ways, we are fortunate in the Uk that (by chance) we haven't yet reached a population level that is grossly unsustainable for both post-peak eneregy and food needs.
Other countries, like Egypt, simply cannot feed their population without massive imports - what's will there fate be....
When I get back onto it I want to look into this. My initial thoughts were that it would really dire, however if the report that 30% of food in this country is thrown away and you consider with rising obesity that there's either too much being eaten and/or too much processed junk it looks a little more hopeful.
Also, think of the food that is junked or fed to animals to meet the insane 'perfection' standards of the supermarkets which currently supply 80% of UK groceries and things don't look nearly so simple.
This is obviously a topic close to all our hearts and one which definitely deserves serious study.
Also, think of the food that is junked or fed to animals to meet the insane 'perfection' standards of the supermarkets which currently supply 80% of UK groceries and things don't look nearly so simple.
This is obviously a topic close to all our hearts and one which definitely deserves serious study.
John Busby has put a lot of thought into the implications of Peak Oil specifically for the UK. Have a look at his web site The Busby Report - http://www.after-oil.co.uk UK Survival in the 21st Century. There's a section specifically on the effects of peak oil on agriculture.Will we face high levels of starvation to return to those historic levels when the oil runs out ?
I think we are quite capable of surviving and maintain a high standard of living with out oil ? if we put our minds to it. I don?t think we can do it with the way society is organised as it is at the moment. We are to self centred with a system that values greed and selfishness (sorry, I mean ?consumer choice?. So easy to get those confused). If we are just talking about what we need to do just to survive or even just to live well then we have the capability to feed, house and clothe people without the waist our current economic and social system generates. We need to be more intelligent with the way we do things. We can do that and we can survive.Will we face high levels of starvation to return to those historic levels when the oil runs out ?
This will sound cold-hearted. I expect that the population will decrease in the economic depression as we try and cope with less energy. But I don't think that will be due to lack of food at least not to start with.
I don't think we will be abe to maintain the NHS at its current level, although I hope that we will be able to keep making insulin for the diabetics. So our death rate will increase because of that.
I also expect that electricity and gas will become more expensive as they are diverted into transport. So that home heating will become harder and the elderly will suffer because of that.
Also we will be adopting more dangerous jobs than our current desk jobs so that will also increase the death rate. So I think that all in all our population will go down before it is forced down by lack of food.
I don't think we will be abe to maintain the NHS at its current level, although I hope that we will be able to keep making insulin for the diabetics. So our death rate will increase because of that.
I also expect that electricity and gas will become more expensive as they are diverted into transport. So that home heating will become harder and the elderly will suffer because of that.
Also we will be adopting more dangerous jobs than our current desk jobs so that will also increase the death rate. So I think that all in all our population will go down before it is forced down by lack of food.
It's doubtful anyone will starve for decades yet. The UK currently produces 70% of its own food, 15% of land is set-aside and we waste 30% - plenty of slack there before we even cut daily calories. Food way well be more seasonal, less exotic but likely healthier. It will also get more expensive and this will have a knock-on effect on other discretionary spending.
Longer term is more difficult to imagine - how much land would we need for biomass? On another thread here, it was generally agreed that the UK ought to aim for a population of 20million say, by the end of the century.
I agree that some people will die from lack of heat but wouldn't think that this would be a significant number.
What will happen to immigrants and emmigrants? I'm sure we all know someone who has gone to live in Spain, France, NZ etc - will they come 'home' if air travel becomes prohibitively expensive?
Longer term is more difficult to imagine - how much land would we need for biomass? On another thread here, it was generally agreed that the UK ought to aim for a population of 20million say, by the end of the century.
I agree that some people will die from lack of heat but wouldn't think that this would be a significant number.
What will happen to immigrants and emmigrants? I'm sure we all know someone who has gone to live in Spain, France, NZ etc - will they come 'home' if air travel becomes prohibitively expensive?
My fear is xenophobia for immigrants\ the BNP will have a field day I bet...What will happen to immigrants and emmigrants? I'm sure we all know someone who has gone to live in Spain\ France\ NZ etc - will they come 'home' if air travel becomes prohibitively expensive?
And maybe the emmigrants will get "you can't come back" which would be a bit funny but also bad.
Truth is it will take the gov SO long to get any plan in place (good or bad) that the ex-pats will be back home with a cup of tea before any rules could take effect.
I fear that any population reduction will be unequally distributed amongst racial or rather cultural groups. Groups that favour multi-generational households are likely to survive much better than those in nuclear families. That may fuel racial 'indignation' amongst some sectors of the UK population.
I am a tad surprised that folk raise the issue of xenophobia - it seems to me there are going to be a lot more pressing concerns in terms of everyday survival that that! Look at the big picture.......
There are both positives and negatives to come out of the coming crisis. Ultimately what is the biggest threat to ALL life on the planet? In a word ......us. It seems nothing will ever ween us away from our destructive ever increasing demand to consume. To take one example; the BBC report that destruction of forest in the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS is back near record levels - this so soya can be grown - for what? cattle feed I should imagine. If you were to take a global view of the planets health what is the best thing that could happen? Well for our population to be knocked back to what it was pre-oil (1 billion). That and the need to re-shape our lives such that they dond degrade our environment, which would be forced upon us.
So in a perverse way I am looking forward to the challenge. A great deal of our recent 'cultural paraphenalia' will have to be stripped away, particularly in developing countries. Perhaps a bit of return to nature red in tooth and claw will do our species a favour. We lost sight a long time ago of the fact that we are an animal dependent on a biosphere - perhaps this will give us an opportunity to realsie that again. Pleasant it will not be - but then massive change never is. Just thank the stars you who read this are already ahead of the game, and, if you have any sense, are already taking the appropriate steps.
There are both positives and negatives to come out of the coming crisis. Ultimately what is the biggest threat to ALL life on the planet? In a word ......us. It seems nothing will ever ween us away from our destructive ever increasing demand to consume. To take one example; the BBC report that destruction of forest in the DODGY TAX AVOIDERS is back near record levels - this so soya can be grown - for what? cattle feed I should imagine. If you were to take a global view of the planets health what is the best thing that could happen? Well for our population to be knocked back to what it was pre-oil (1 billion). That and the need to re-shape our lives such that they dond degrade our environment, which would be forced upon us.
So in a perverse way I am looking forward to the challenge. A great deal of our recent 'cultural paraphenalia' will have to be stripped away, particularly in developing countries. Perhaps a bit of return to nature red in tooth and claw will do our species a favour. We lost sight a long time ago of the fact that we are an animal dependent on a biosphere - perhaps this will give us an opportunity to realsie that again. Pleasant it will not be - but then massive change never is. Just thank the stars you who read this are already ahead of the game, and, if you have any sense, are already taking the appropriate steps.
James please enlarge your comments (below) - I dont really follow what you are trying to say?
Basically the choice is either we suffer the dieback that the oil crisis brings or we destroy the whole damn planet. In many ways it puts me in mind of Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis of negative feedbacks - we are about to experience the massive force of a profound negative feedback mechanism as we deplete fossil fuels. This leads to the collapse in our numbers\, and returns the bioshere to some sort of equilibrium. I see not one shred of evidence that we will voluntarily change our ways as regards energy use and consumerism so this is the way it will be....
As a an out an out atheist I have always failed to understand why we see ourselves as being so special. Human life is no more precious than any other life on the planet; we just think it is.
And I still think outbreaks of xenophobia are the least of our problems. Those with productive agricultural land and the skills to use it will no doubt be forced to shoot all comers regardless of colour if they try and take it from them.......
My point is that we have become the problem. Lets imagine the Intergalactic League decided to appoint an all powerful conservation officer to look after all life on the planet. What would there first action be? Well hell I would imagine it would be to exterminate us, as the most destructive force on the planet.The problem with being convinced of this massive population die off is you are only successful if 5 out of 6 people fail.
If you hope for that, why are you spreading the word? Why are you doing anything at all?
Basically the choice is either we suffer the dieback that the oil crisis brings or we destroy the whole damn planet. In many ways it puts me in mind of Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis of negative feedbacks - we are about to experience the massive force of a profound negative feedback mechanism as we deplete fossil fuels. This leads to the collapse in our numbers\, and returns the bioshere to some sort of equilibrium. I see not one shred of evidence that we will voluntarily change our ways as regards energy use and consumerism so this is the way it will be....
As a an out an out atheist I have always failed to understand why we see ourselves as being so special. Human life is no more precious than any other life on the planet; we just think it is.
And I still think outbreaks of xenophobia are the least of our problems. Those with productive agricultural land and the skills to use it will no doubt be forced to shoot all comers regardless of colour if they try and take it from them.......
....for those countries unable to support their existing populations with self-sufficient agriculture, then it does seem likely that they will suffer some serious problems that will likely reduce their population a great deal of evidence suggests that is not true of the UK
sure we ain't gunna carry on with a 3500 calorie diet from MacDs, but that is killing us anyway
2000 cals and a manual labour job seems that it will do 2 things in the Uk
1) vastly improve out health (save a few heart attacks from ex bank managers...)
2) enable the Uk to feed itself (with the current population)
So long as you are one level up from a desperate society that must kill to survive then you need the society to work together - this has proved vital in previous UK crises.
Hence you need to avoid all the things that will breakdown societies coherence.
True enough the Uk won't change it's ways without a big push, but despite the situation we find ourselves in I don't see that we face a bubble-bursting end where we go from 60m people living in excess to 50m dead overnight.
The decline in the std of living in the Uk, post PO, will likely be sharp and nasty but that does not automatically mean millions will die - the Uk can still sustain itself if everyone works hard at it.
The future of other parts of the world is not, however, as survivable as seems likely in the UK.....
sure we ain't gunna carry on with a 3500 calorie diet from MacDs, but that is killing us anyway
2000 cals and a manual labour job seems that it will do 2 things in the Uk
1) vastly improve out health (save a few heart attacks from ex bank managers...)
2) enable the Uk to feed itself (with the current population)
So long as you are one level up from a desperate society that must kill to survive then you need the society to work together - this has proved vital in previous UK crises.
Hence you need to avoid all the things that will breakdown societies coherence.
True enough the Uk won't change it's ways without a big push, but despite the situation we find ourselves in I don't see that we face a bubble-bursting end where we go from 60m people living in excess to 50m dead overnight.
The decline in the std of living in the Uk, post PO, will likely be sharp and nasty but that does not automatically mean millions will die - the Uk can still sustain itself if everyone works hard at it.
The future of other parts of the world is not, however, as survivable as seems likely in the UK.....
We've still got plenty of land in this country to produce our food. Not only is there the acres and acres and acres of farmland, we've also got parks, people's gardens, disused allotments and other bits of recreational space that could be used. Not all of it suitable, but it's still enough to go round.