It's looking clear that non-OPEC production has peaked, annual production rates:
Chevron -6%
Exxon Mobil -4.3%
Shell -1%
Oil Majors See Extraction Fall
http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/08/24
Anyone have any more data on other non-OPEC majors?
Oil Majors See Extraction Fall
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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SherryMayo
- Posts: 235
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- Location: Melbourne, Australia
Some of the major non-opec countries production is in govt hands eg Mexico and to come extent Russia.
Recent figures for Russia show 2.8% growth compared to last year, this is much lower growth than last year -partly because of the Yukos issue- however even without the Yukos problems Russian production may well be plateauing.
Russian growth was one thing propping up non-opec production. It also looks like Mexican production may be going into decline with the passing of peak production in the mega-giant Cantarell field. Mexico was formerly one of the major non-opec producers than was still growing. Another other major non-opec producer is China where production is still growing but growth is slowing I believe. Areas where there may still be growth are the Caspian and Africa.
I agree there is a distinct possibility that non-opec production is at peak, many countries are already in decline (eg North Sea!) and the rapid growth in other non-opec producers to offset that seems to be coming to an end.
See also:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsatagla ... 0-2005.pdf
Recent figures for Russia show 2.8% growth compared to last year, this is much lower growth than last year -partly because of the Yukos issue- however even without the Yukos problems Russian production may well be plateauing.
Russian growth was one thing propping up non-opec production. It also looks like Mexican production may be going into decline with the passing of peak production in the mega-giant Cantarell field. Mexico was formerly one of the major non-opec producers than was still growing. Another other major non-opec producer is China where production is still growing but growth is slowing I believe. Areas where there may still be growth are the Caspian and Africa.
I agree there is a distinct possibility that non-opec production is at peak, many countries are already in decline (eg North Sea!) and the rapid growth in other non-opec producers to offset that seems to be coming to an end.
See also:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsatagla ... 0-2005.pdf