Interesting comparison reddit polls on the long term future

[UndercoverElephant]

I did a sort of experiment. I asked the same poll question on two different subreddits -- /r/collapse and r/darkfuturology. Are humans going extinct, or post-civilisation mad max, or eventually figure out how to make civilisation work.

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comme ... _possible/

https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkFuturology ... _possible/

Quite a lot of responses. Extinction is the most popular option on both subs, but the proportions are very different. Also, a significant number of people on both subs believe we will eventually figure it out.

I am trying to get a better idea of the range of opinions about the future among people who have accepted our own civilisation is doomed in the foreseeable future, and it does seem very widely varied. Also interesting is the discussion, because even though opinions are widely varied, a lot of people have a high level of certainty that their own view is correct.

There's a lot of confusion about technology too -- a belief that we have a choice between high technology as we understand it today and almost no technology at all. Not many people can imagine a different sort of advanced technology (ie advanced sustainable technology).

[clv101]

Over 1 million years? There are two different kinds of extinction, death of all homo sapiens *and* the end of that branch of the tree, needing to back track to chimpanzees and bonobos for closest relations (they'll be dead too!). Call that a 'hard extinction'. This is extremely unlikely IMO. As long as the energy and chemical makeup of the planet still supports photosynthesis and mammals - we'll be here. We are the most adaptable, resilient animal ever to evolve.

However, over a million years extinction by evolution - how almost all extinctions occur is pretty likely. A million years is a hell of a long time for a large, populous mammal. More likely than not homo sapiens will be just as extinct as Australopithecus, Rudolpfensus, Erectus, Heidelbergensis, Neanderthal and the rest of them.

Wild cards that *could* cause a 'hard extinction'? Asteroid significantly larger than Chicxulub (we'd survive a repeat), the Sun doing something crazy, solar emissions that destroyed the atmosphere, a repeat of 'snowball Earth', volcanism exceeding that which triggered the PETM... I guess there are also some modern anthropogenic wildcards - endocrine disrupting chemicals could destroy reproductive health (Children of Men scenario), however I suspect some folk would avoid exposure for long enough. Gain of function bio-weapons have the potential create a ~100% lethal virus, but I expect some would manage to avoid exposure...

When we start talking about the million year timeframe I think we have to pretty much ignore *this* technological civilization an fall back to biology, ecology thinking. We're animals, complex, social animals but I expect the last couple thousand years of 'technology' use will be the exception rather than the rule over the million year history of humans (in all our species).

[UndercoverElephant]

Over 1 million years? There are two different kinds of extinction, death of all homo sapiens *and* the end of that branch of the tree, needing to back track to chimpanzees and bonobos for closest relations (they'll be dead too!). Call that a 'hard extinction'. This is extremely unlikely IMO. As long as the energy and chemical makeup of the planet still supports photosynthesis and mammals - we'll be here. We are the most adaptable, resilient animal ever to evolve.

However, over a million years extinction by evolution - how almost all extinctions occur is pretty likely. A million years is a hell of a long time for a large, populous mammal. More likely than not homo sapiens will be just as extinct as Australopithecus, Rudolpfensus, Erectus, Heidelbergensis, Neanderthal and the rest of them.

I don't think we can assume that just by the timescale. Some species persist for hundreds of millions of years without really changing at all, others evolve extremely rapidly. Even in the case of humans erectus was around for two million years without changing very much and then something happened and it did start changing again. The devil is in the details here. Especially the mortality rate before adulthood. The greater the proportion of births make it to adulthood, the slower evolution will go.

When we start talking about the million year timeframe I think we have to pretty much ignore *this* technological civilization an fall back to biology, ecology thinking. We're animals, complex, social animals but I expect the last couple thousand years of 'technology' use will be the exception rather than the rule over the million year history of humans (in all our species).

Ah...so that's you on reddit!

[Vortex2]

Reddit?

i spend a lot of time there ...

TBH it's primarily peopled by tiresome young males without girlfriens, and who live in their parents' basements.

[johnny]

Reddit?

i spend a lot of time there ...

TBH it's primarily peopled by tiresome young males without girlfriens, and who live in their parents' basements.

You being a tiresome young male without a girlfriend who live in your parent's basement, or just like to hang out with that crowd?

Don't get me wrong, I understand slumming and have been doing it with Happy McPeaksters going on almost 20 years now...but still...reddit?

[Vortex2]

You being a tiresome young male without a girlfriend who live in your parent's basement, or just like to hang out with that crowd?

I just knew in my very soul that someone would go down that rathole!

I mostly frequent the AI and IQ forums, where some grown-ups congregate.

I also (try to) give advice on computer careers on a couple of sw developer forums.

Also, as for Reddit, it's just a useful general discussion location.
If you know of better general discussion sites please do tell!

[johnny]

Also, as for Reddit, it's just a useful general discussion location.
If you know of better general discussion sites please do tell!

Oh, I hang out on reddit, but to be honest, once the amateur hour analysts and faith based believers dissolved in million of barrels a day of new oil, peak oil as a real topic just washed away right along with them. I imagine some remnants will slink back out of their caves after dark, once American exceptionalism dies down a little, (which it looks to be doing right now) but my interest has moved on.