Should we expect power cuts? If so, what type?

[Vortex2]

Should we expect power cuts? If so, what type?

Are you expecting power cuts?

If so, just short blackouts of a few hours at a time?

Or something worse?

[adam2]

Yes, I see some risk.
Probably rota power cuts for three hours at a time. Widespread long term power cuts are most unlikely in my view.
A preplanned rota would be used, with customers cut of for three hours at a time. Depending on the severity of the situation, any one consumer might suffer as few as 3 cuts per week, up to a dozen or more. I presume that you know your load group ? Write this on the wall near the electricity meter.
It must be repeatedly stressed that rota cuts apply to every consumer in the affected area, there can be no question of exceptions.

Any large, sudden, and unexpected shortage of electricity would result in large areas being blacked out automatically by frequency relays in high voltage grid substations, this is a quick acting and fully automatic process with no question of any warning or consultations. If after about three hours the situation had not improved, then alternative areas would be cut off and supply restored to those areas originally cut off.This has happened previously but is a very rare event.

Voltage reductions are likely to be imposed at times of shortage, but these are less effective in reducing present day demand than was the case decades ago.

Any severe and prolonged electricity shortage is also likely to result in restrictions on non essential uses, including prohibiting the gas or electric heating of leisure premises, the prohibition on gas or electrically lit advertising, and restrictions on working hours.
Remote areas are somewhat vulnerable to prolonged power cuts if extreme weather damages infrastructure, that is however unrelated to fuel shortages.

[clv101]

We've been off-grid for over 4 years now so it's a bit accademic for us. But, yes, I'm expecting the country will see blackouts over the coming decade; short term localised, related to storms etc, longer-term, wider spread related to infrastructure failed and fuel shortage.

[Mark]

I presume that you know your load group ? Write this on the wall near the electricity meter.

Nope.....

From a quIck google:

Finding out ones own load group should be easy, it is printed on the electricity bill.
There are 18 load groups denoted by letters of the alphabet, excluding F, V, O, and I.

OK, so I get a letter - say 'K'.
This is on a rota with the other 17 letters, and will experience 1/18 of the cuts.
Is that how it would work ?

[adam2]

More or less, yes that is how it will work.
Every customer supplied at low voltage or at 11 KV is allocated a load group. There are 18 load groups, each one identified by a letter, starting with A . The letters O and I are not used lest they be confused with the numerals 0 and 1. The letter F is also not used.
Your load group letter is often found on your electricity bill, as a single capital letter, printed below the address.

Your load group will generally be the same as that of your neighbours. The allocated load group can not be altered by the consumer and is unlikely to be altered by your supplier.
There is no advantage in one load group over another. The load group is NOT related to social status, nor to house prices.

Planned rota power cuts will be spread among the load groups in a rather complex pattern so as to ensure fairness. This rota will be published online and in local papers.

It must AGAIN BE STRESSED that no exceptions can be made for any premises supplied at low or medium voltages.

There are a handful of exceptions for premises with a dedicated high voltage grid connection, and that are considered to be of vital national importance. There can be no question of exemptions for other customers, no matter how deserving.

[Vortex2]

Thanks for the info everyone

Although I've been looking at PV, I think that for the current 'situation' I will simply buy a stack of leisure batteries plus mains charger.

(I already have pure sine inverters, 1 solar panel and two 110 AH leisure batteries)

This will allow us to charge batteries when the power is on, and then use the battery bank during the power cuts.

Simple, cheap(ish) and effective.

[adam2]

A battery charging PV system is a better long term doom prep, but for rota power cuts such as I am expecting, a battery bank charged from the grid is cheaper and perhaps simpler.

As you already have a PV module, it might be best to use this to keep the battery charged and in good condition, and recharge it after any slight and infrequent discharges. This will save paying forever for the losses in a mains powered battery charger. After a significant discharge such as a 3 hour rota power cut, use a mains powered battery charger.

Lighting is best supplied at battery voltage to avoid inverter losses and a single point of failure. Both 12 volts and 24 volts have their merits, in your case it will depend on for what voltage your existing equipment is designed.

[adam2]

The worst reasonably foreseeable rota power cuts would be alternating 3 hours on and 3 hours off, every day.
Plan battery capacity and charging to allow for this.

The main need is lighting for those cuts in darkness.
Fridge, maybe in very warm weather but should stay cold for 3 hours in cool weather.
Freezer should stay frozen, if in good condition.
Internet router and a laptop PC will be a high priority for most.
A modest size TV is a high priority, but you probably dont need both the TV and the laptop, certainly not at the same time.
Central heating is a fairly high priority in severe winter weather.
Electric space heating is most unlikely to be viable.
Very limited electric cooking might just about be possible at significant cost. LPG or a fire, or waiting for the power to return might be more sensible.

[adam2]

As has already been said, prolonged power cuts are unlikely to result from a natural gas shortage, rota power cuts for three hours at a time are the likely result of any severe gas shortage.

It is important to make at least basic preps for a much longer outage that results from extreme weather.
See for example viewtopic.php?f=53&t=26848 for a prolonged outage in a major urban area due to flooding.

Or consider the recent WEEK LONG power cuts resulting from severe winds, As reported here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=27976

And in Aukland they had a power failure in an urban center for WEEKS. So with everyone watching russian gas supplies, do not ignore the risks of much worse power cuts resulting from extreme weather, breakdowns, or even deliberate attack.

[mr brightside]

I've had one recently, it was very short duration, about 2mins. You'd think that may have been deliberate, as a subby fault or trip may take a lot longer to clear than 2mins given the potential need for an RCA.

[adam2]

This was discussed on "newsnight" yesterday evening.

Strong possibility of Europe wide power shortages was noted. Nuclear shutdowns in France, lack of water for hydroelectric generation in Norway, and a likely natural gas shortage throughout.
The present hot weather is increasing demand for refrigeration and air conditioning. Burning coal to conserve gas stocks has been halted or reduced at two German power stations as low river levels prevent coal deliveries by barge.

It was suggested that the UK might be OK provided that we can import significant electricity via interconnectors. If such imports are not available, then it might end badly. The French are probably counting on importing electricity from US.

[clv101]

I think we're letting these crazy prices distract us from the looming physical shortages.
Are these prices a euphemism for shuttered industry and cold, dark homes this winter?

[PS_RalphW]

We have crazy prices because demand exceeds supply, and every government will bankrupt itself before letting the lights go out because they fear the anarchy that will follow when people start dying of the cold, or of non functioning medical or safety equipment. Every modern country is so dependent on reliable electricity that society cannot eff3ctively function without it and no government wants to be the first to introduce effective rationing. Far easier to impose hyperinflation to inflate away unpayable energy debts and kick the can another month down the road. Of course there will be losers , the poor in every country, and the countries whose debt is in dollars or other energy exporting currency. Once those countries have turned the lights out, it will be the energy or export poor first world countries, or war. Increasingly energy exporting countries will refuse to accept hyper inflated currencies as the payment would devalue faster than they could spend it, and international trade will be severely compromised.

Sooner or later societies will rebalance to living within renewable energy sources, but the descent will be anything but smooth, and crook and thieves will flourish

[PS_RalphW]

Kosovo has stopped all electricity imports and has imposed a power cuts rota of 6 hours on. 2 hours off. Power is coming from domestic brown coal power plants.

Where next?

[adam2]

Planned Kosovo power cuts canceled/postponed as electricity has been obtained from Albania.

In the longer term, power cuts remain likely in many parts of Europe, primarily due to the invasion of Ukraine. Faults at French nuclear stations, lack of water at hydroelectric plants, and low river levels are also playing a part.

This growing crisis underlines the need for a lot more renewables throughout Europe. If for example Kosovo had more wind and solar power, then they could under favourable conditions export power to Albania. That would save water behind Albanian hydroelectric dams for later use and for export to Kosovo when wind and solar generation was lacking.