Peak Oil & The Greenhouse Effect

[Lychee]

To paraphrase Descartes: I am no science geek, and I detest doommongering, therefore I am blissfully ignorant and I must detest myself. Let me start again and pose this question in the way a child might, or at least as simply as I can:

As is by now fairly well documented, the worst effects of the greenhouse effect (i.e global mean temperature projected to rise by up to 10 c. etc.) are currently being mitigated by industrial pollution. That is, the volume of "particulates" or specs of nasty soot we are currently releasing into the environment is (arguably) helping to caccoon the planet from the worst effects of "run-away climate change".

However, according to research published recently in 'New Scientist', strict new global energy controls (conservation measures etc) may have 'ironic' effect of removing/lessening this man-made layer of atmospheric protection.

What happens when you throw "Peak Oil", or enforced global energy depletion into this lusty doom-ladened equation? Is this the E=Mc 2 mechanism that spells the end of the line for Mankind?

From this point of view, so what if we work out a way of building zero-emission coal fired power-stations (dream on!?), to capitalise on all the coal that's still left in the ground? We may actually find ourselves having to keep up a certain (high) degree of pollution just to stave off far more life-threatening climate change. Excuse me for being facetious, but might this lead to a situation where we will be begging the Chinese to burn off all their coal reserves, just to keep Co 2 emissions proportionally high enough?

Now isn't that a mighty fine mess we've got ourselves into! Party On Dudes! Oh the genius of Man! I stress 'Man'. I guess it's Time To Be Good Darwinians, I mean, Christians and forgive everybody (even George Bush - as long as he repents and becomes a born-again Green Activist Evangalist NOW!). We're all in this one together baby! So keep a smile on your face and do your bit!

For more info: see

http://www.pastpeak.com/

And scroll down till you get to the fetchingly entitled:

"New Global Warming Study: We're Screwed!" posted July 01. 2005



Lychee

[isenhand]

<<Is this the E=Mc 2 mechanism that spells the end of the line for Mankind?>>

Probably not. Maybe the end of civilisation as we know it but I doubt if it?s the end of the human race. We have survived climate change before (and may even by a product of climate change) and the human population was down to 40K at one time but we survived and I?m sure we will do again.

<<Now isn't that a mighty fine mess we've got ourselves into!>>

Well, that?s what you get for not thinking ahead! Also, it gets to the heart of the problem. It?s not the technology but us, ourselves that are at fault for the way we have been using the technology.

<<even George Bush - as long as he repents and becomes a born-again Green Activist Evangalist NOW!).>>

Maybe your wish will come true. I read something on the BBC yesterday about the new green evangelical right in the US.

[fishertrop]

If the requirement is to put particulates into the atmosphere in a way that doesn't further damage the environment overall, then thats what you have to work on achieveing.

If we can put a man on teh moon (or host the olympics in London!) then surely we can have a crack at this problem also??

How about this for a simplistic solution - big fans that blow fine sand particles up into the atmosphere?

Much as isenhand says, it's not - yet - the damage we have done or will do that is going to kill us it's the way we live and operate of societies or systems that is the big problem.

[isenhand]

Maybe your wish will come true. I read something on the BBC yesterday about the new green evangelical right in the US.

here it is:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4642241.stm

[Lychee]

Thanks for the link.

Re. This issue. One obvious concern is that the Powers That Be, in particular the U.S, may use this argument in a cynical way to do nothing. I.e Change tack, accept the Climatologists projections for the purposes of rebranding the Greenhouse Effect as a massive Latent Evil,
which is best "defeated"/"contained" through maintaining high Co2 emissions, or to justify burning off huge coal reserves etc..

Re. U.S Evangelical Right. The Fundamentalist Christians of middle America could play a massive role if they began disowning their SUV's and walking to church instead. Also U.S Corporate Oil Lobby (concerned that Russia/Venezuala etc decide to sell oil in Euro's, plus rise in Chinese/ Indian savvy at securing oil supplies and son on). These parties will have a potentially far greater influence on how the U.S plays its hand in this Great Game, as compared to Tony (The Lickspittle) Blair and the Tut-Tut Euro Liberals waving admonishing diplomatic fingers in Gleneagles.