Arctic winds and arctic sea ice

Kieran · Post by **Kieran** » 22 Mar 2010, 15:31

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... oss-arctic

"Much of the record breaking loss of ice in the Arctic ocean in recent years is down to the region's swirling winds and is not a direct result of global warming, a new study reveals.

Ice blown out of the region by Arctic winds can explain around one-third of the steep downward trend in sea ice extent in the region since 1979, the scientists say..."

And this is how the DM twists the story:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... a-ice.html

"Strong winds and not global warming are to blame for much of the record-breaking loss of ice in the Arctic Ocean in recent years, new research reveals.

Ice blown out of the Arctic area by winds can explain the one-third drop of sea ice since 1979, scientists believe..."

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 22 Mar 2010, 15:53

There is a separate report that arctic sea ice volume is <probably> at an 8,000 year low as these winds blow the thick, multiyear ice out of the arctic waters.

However, this is the opposite conclusion of a Met Office report a few months ago, and also observations that the strong negative AO this winter will have reduced loss of multiyear ice.

These reports are all just single data points in the global project known as scientific study.

We need to see the bigger picture and draw conclusions accordingly, over years and decades of study.

we are <probably> up the creek without a paddle.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 Mar 2010, 18:14

What is a change of winds if not Climate Change? It doesn't matter whether it melts in place or is blown into the warmer Atlantic: the stuff is disappearing fast either way.

The record low level of ice in 2007 was due to prevailing winds that year blowing the ice against the Canadian shore. But the ice is thinning all the time due to higher air and ocean temperatures. There is an increasing proportion of first year ice every year as the older ice melts and thins.

This is just an academic discussion of the mechanism, not a discussion of whether or not there is Global Warming.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Mar 2010, 11:13

Arctic ice seems to have 'plateaued' for nearly a month now, after
a late freeze back into the '2 standard deviations' band.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/imag ... series.png

I wonder if this is a knock-on effect from the extreme reverse arctic oscillation?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 01 Apr 2010, 15:07

The arctic just keeps on freezing. Ice is still expanding, and we are within spitting distance of 'long term average' ice extent.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/imag ... series.png

Don't tell the deniers, it isn't even an April fool.

My PO will get us first after all...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 01 Apr 2010, 15:15

This first year ice is just weather. The multi-year ice is climate.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 01 Apr 2010, 15:22

It's all first year ice so it's quite likely to disappear come summer. Unless, of course, the current low in sun spot activity causes a year without a summer to follow our extraordinary winter.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 01 Apr 2010, 15:49

Actually the extreme AO caused more multi-year ice to remain in the arctic than usual this winter, instead of being syphoned south to melt in warmer latitudes. Maybe that is why the melt is delayed - the ice is thicker than usual near the melt front.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 02 Apr 2010, 00:59

If the ice area is getting larger which, according to the graph, it is, it's either because the ice is still forming or the wind has just spread it out more this year instead of bunching it up into ridges. Could also be a combination of both.