City of London in a post PO powerdown world

[Lord Beria3]

How will our allmight financial services industry cope in a energy-scarce Britain?

The contemporary financial services industry depends on secure energy grid, IT infrastracture and the complex interconnected supply system to run.

How exactly are they going to continue in the future?

I think that maintening the City of London would be a strategic priority for the UK gov so massive efforts will occur to ensure that infrastacture is secured and electricity is prioristies to the City.

Longer term, I forsee a massive contraction of the financial services, and a 'back-to-basics' revolution which will see the rise of small private merchant banking (which focus on land, gold and resource investing), the return to paper records and a ultra-conservative investing strategy for the remaining superrich.

[Ludwig]

I think that maintening the City of London would be a strategic priority for the UK gov so massive efforts will occur to ensure that infrastacture is secured and electricity is prioristies to the City.

Longer term, I forsee a massive contraction of the financial services, and a 'back-to-basics' revolution which will see the rise of small private merchant banking (which focus on land, gold and resource investing), the return to paper records and a ultra-conservative investing strategy for the remaining superrich.

In my view the financial services industry is already on its last legs. I don't think there will be a massive contraction, so much as a sudden crash, when the structure that has been held up artificially by government measures (bailouts, quantitative easing) can no longer be supported.

Ever the pessimist, I don't think there will be any kind of gradual transition to a more old-fashioned system; I think there will be chaos, of one sort or another.

I think any kind of stability is only going to be possible post-dieoff.

[Lord Beria3]

What timescale do you think this period of chaos will occur? Wouldn't the government impose martial law rather than face anarchy? Finally, there has always been a City of London for centuries, what makes you think that it won't be around in the future?

[Ludwig]

What timescale do you think this period of chaos will occur? Wouldn't the government impose martial law rather than face anarchy?

I don't know. Remember that the Government consists of people like you and me. As individuals, they might not find it worth their while to struggle to hold society together, but instead run for the hills.

Another grim scenario is that tax revenues are so low that the Government virtually disappears in any case, in all but name.

From what I've read about the Russian and Argentinian economic crises, government shrivelled until it had minimal impact on people's lives; people were left to fend for themselves.

Clearly the Government is already making plans for some sort of martial law, but it remains to be seen whether this will be a half-hearted attempt to stem the tide, or a real effort to hold society together.

Sorry, realise I'm being a miserable f***er here; but you asked what I thought

Finally, there has always been a City of London for centuries, what makes you think that it won't be around in the future?

Things don't endure through their own momentum, but through the momentum of circumstances around them. There was a Roman Empire around for longer than the City of London.

[SunnyJim]

My guess is that as the economy moves into long term contraction it will be propped up by tax payers money. We all have to get poorer some how. Better through tax than complete financial collapse!

[Lord Beria3]

Sorry, realise I'm being a miserable f***er here; but you asked what I thought

No worries, this will cheer you up

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/fe ... ooper.html

On a serious note, i forsee a medium-term contraction of the City, than a emergency skeleton on government life support before a small, 'back to the future' City emerges, as I say, on small, privately based banking firms, not the huge multinationals we have now.

More like the City pre-Bang. There will always be rich people who need to invest their money, whatever happens.

Regarding martial law, as most people don't have guns, it wouldn't be too hard to ensure civil order, particularly, with the TA and others providing support.

[Bazz]

How will the financial world continue if interest can no longer exist ?
Growth is needed to produce extra money to repay loans plus interest.

No interest = no finance