I think you could be right - the problem is not that the UK could possibly muddle through for a reasonably long time. If the peak had hit in the early 80s that might be more achievable than it is now.fishertrop wrote: In the UK we could get out of the peak-oil mess with some - but not massive - upheaval, alas I don't thik this will happen, I think it'll be bad decisions and short termism leading to a more harsh end game, which p1sses me off since we're going to throw away repeated chances to fix this mess.......
The problem is globalism and the extent to which manufacturing has been outsourced - we may have the energy to heat and light our homes. However, we lack the capacity to make everything that is essential - all of it is overseas - much of our food production, almost all of our clothing/textiles production, almost all of our household goods & appliances.
The ascent to this level of globalism was painless - each step in the "progression" resulted in cheaper prices which no-one but those made redundant complained about. This will not be the case on the way down the other side of the slope.
As the cost of the transport of all of our goods becomes more expensive, we will quickly learn the true cost of the "service economy". At the very least in the early stages, the cost of everything will rise as the cost of transport rises. People will buy less of everything but food - we will put off purchases until this "temporary" inflation is defeated. This will put additional pressures on globalised production, leading to yet greater prices. Eventually the cost of transport will become prohibitive and western society will have to rebuild a production economy.
This rebuilding is unlikely to move to its logical conclusion of a local economy in one step - we are still likely to expend more of our remaining oil capital in rebuilding continental production and then national production until we eventually settle on local production.
These multiple steps WILL bring massive upheaval. Our financial system could not cope with progressive price increases (inflation / hyper inflation), and certainly would collapse with the massive loss of confidence as people realise that things will be "regressing" for the foreseeable future.
Whether society will cope with peak oil is not just a calculation of how much energy will be needed to keep the bare minimum running locally, and how much energy can be supplied locally. The danger of rapid global economic collapse during the downsizing of the world's economy, regardless of local energy availability, is my principle worry in this whole debate. A rapid economic collapse may also greatly damage the ability to supply energy locally.
