New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 12:14

Interesting Chines paper on the CFR.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

it is inferred that the cure rate of this epidemic is about 93% and the case fatality rate is about 7%

However they do admit that CFRs in the region of 10%+ have been seen in Wuhan.

Whatever the value, I don't want to risk catching this!

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 12:48

Coronavirus data from WHO daily situation reports

A Google spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1698346312

Based on their data for the 21st Feb for non-Chinese cases : 600 cases (excluding cruise ship) with a daily increases of 22% we are looking at 82 days for the world to be totally infected. May 10th

Of course the 22% rate is probably a glitch - let's say 10% is the more typical value, which gives us 172 days i.e. early August

(Interestingly this is the same date I obtained using different data a few days ago)

If mitigation can bring that rate down to 5% we have 334 days ... nearly a whole year. This suggests that strong mitigation is worthwhile, as a year is long time to get medications or vaccines prepared. Of course, a year of strong measures would kill the economy and might not even be pragmatically possible.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 22 Feb 2020, 12:58

Comment below Chris Martenson's latest YT report -

Johnny Danielson says

Everyone is living in a "positivity bias" here in Denmark. Nothings ever going to happen here.

The weird thing is, people just understand having insurance for the house, the car even themself. But if I mention that I'm getting supply (of things we already use day to day) of food with long shelf life, toilet paper and stuff like that, so me and the family can comfortably remain in lockdown when this thing hits, people lose their mind looking at me like I just told them I have seen BigFoot.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 13:54

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Comment below Chris Martenson's latest YT report -

Johnny Danielson says

Everyone is living in a "positivity bias" here in Denmark. Nothings ever going to happen here.

The weird thing is, people just understand having insurance for the house, the car even themself. But if I mention that I'm getting supply (of things we already use day to day) of food with long shelf life, toilet paper and stuff like that, so me and the family can comfortably remain in lockdown when this thing hits, people lose their mind looking at me like I just told them I have seen BigFoot.

True. It doesn't even matter if the risk is severely overblown .. the social effects will still be there : panic, hoarding etc.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:02

Dr John Campbell -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VasccCz ... ZU6-sXlnkA

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:14

Mean Mr Mustard II wrote:Dr John Campbell -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VasccCz ... ZU6-sXlnkA

This is getting serious - yet there is relatively little coverage in the UK media.

I can only assume that the Emergency Planners are executing their plans to secure masks, anti-viral dispensers, bunny suits, oxygen generators etc before the panic buying starts.

Has anyone else noticed any specific products becoming unavailable?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:24

Governments have gone 'live' !!!

Maybe I'm imagining it, but it seems that Bing and Google have suddenly started returning decent amounts of official results when you search for 'coronavirus'.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:30

Latex gloves, face masks, safety glasses, disposable overalls and the like are becoming hard to find from usual trade suppliers such as RS components.
Plenty on fleabay, though at higher prices than previously and of unknown quality.

Fewer oxygen concentrators listed on fleabay.

Tesco are out of hand sanitiser.

I suspect that some suppliers are holding back some supplies for their own use.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:38

Here is a suggestion for HMG as to how supplies of hand sanitiser may be improved.
Criminal gangs regularly produce illegal vodka or other spirits. This drink is often unfit for consumption as it contains methanol or white spirit.
When such operations are discovered the perps are prosecuted and the liquor destroyed.
Perhaps the dodgy liquor should be confiscated rather than destroyed, packed in something not resembling liquor bottles, and used as hand sanitiser, or for related hygiene purposes.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 22 Feb 2020, 18:54

Would a teaspoon of chlorine bleach in a gallon of water serve?

Post by **clv101** » 22 Feb 2020, 19:39

Vortex2 wrote: This is getting serious - yet there is relatively little coverage in the UK media.

This is the week that it goes 'live'. The world may never be 'normal' again.

Our ~30 visitors have all left, no one seemed sick and I don't think anyone had left Wales recently. Fingers crossed!

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 22 Feb 2020, 19:52

vtsnowedin wrote:Would a teaspoon of chlorine bleach in a gallon of water serve?

Absolutely. Bleach is a mixture of sodium hypochlorite with a dash of sodium hydroxide, this is the standard WHO sanitiser.

The recommended dilution is 0.5% sodium hypochlorite or 5.000 pm or 1-part bleach to 9 parts of water)

Mostly used for surfaces, but in the absence soap and water, will kill nasties on your hands.

Cheap and readily available in most shops,

Soap and water is the preferred hand sanitiser.

Don't know if it has already been posted, here is covid-19 home care guidance for when you turn your home into a mini hospital.

https://www.who.int/publications-detail ... f-contacts

The link
not working but if you copy and paste in a new tab it seems to work?

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 20:20

Here you go:

https://www.who.int/publications-detail ... f-contacts

Post by **clv101** » 22 Feb 2020, 20:23

stumuz1 wrote:Don't know if it has already been posted, here is covid-19 home care guidance for when you turn your home into a mini hospital.

I don't buy all this stuff about avoiding infection. We know it's infectious before showing symptoms. Once you, or a close family member gets sick it's very likely others in the household will already be infected. If one of us or the children gets sick, we're not going to attempt to prevent cross infection within the household.

Given just how infectious it is, without lots of specialist equipment and training is probably hopeless any way. Lots of healthcare works have become infected.

This MedCram video is probably the best advice going:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 22 Feb 2020, 20:26

Personal economics:

OK, I run a business which involves working closely with people.

My service is high value - but 'elective' - in other words it's not high on anyone's priority list.

When the virus arrives I won't want to be that close to clients .. and they won't be risking coming out to see me anyway.

Like 50%+ of people I have rent, rates, insurance, debts etc to pay.

Without income for say three months I will have NO cash - and people will be wanting me to pay bills!

Life will get very tricky!

However millions will be in the same position : so will the government issue a moratorium on debt payments etc during the coming crisis?

Or will those with money use the opportunity to buy up companies, houses and other assets at rock bottom prices?

Thoughts?