New coronavirus in/from China

[Little John]

If you are going to quote a singe sentence by another author out of an entire article I have linked to, then quote it as a single sentence by another author out of an entire article I have linked to as opposed to quoting it as if it is something I have written myself.

I must have deleted one too many "quote boxes", but it sums up one of your previous positions well enough, it's not out of step with your early implications that the whole thing is a hoax.

I have not said Covid19 is a "hoax". I have not made any particularly strong speculations on its source other than a few early on like anyone else.

What I have said, consistently and certainly once I got past the initial scaremongering bullshit (end of February 2020), is that Covid19, whatever its source, is not as is being presented to the public. This can be factually proven by comparison of deaths by all causes for 2020 compared with ALL years prior to 2000 from 1950 and for 4 years SINCE 2000. These are FACTS and, on the basis of those facts, the draconian stripping away of our civil liberties and the destruction of so many people's lives are based on falsehoods.

[Little John]

So, the noises coming out of Sage are now that unless ALL over 50's get vaccinated, there will not be any "significant easing" of Lockdowns.

Those people out there who are cheerleaders for all of this shite, you need to understand something.

Some of us will not submit to this shit no matter what.

No. Matter. What.

[clv101]

So level your fury at the Johnson regime. We shouldn't be here, we wouldn't be here if he had acted faster and stronger last February, we shouldn't have seeded the country with hundreds of imported cases from Italy, we shouldn't have had mass gatherings in March, we should have had a robust testing, tracking and isolating system in place by March.

This isn't hindsight, this was all well understood and advised at the time. The incompetent ideology of economic Vs Covid as if you can play one off against the other is one of the fundamental mistakes UK has made.

You are right, you shouldn't submit to this shit. But you need to get your cause and effect sorted.

[Catweazle]

I have not said Covid19 is a "hoax". I have not made any particularly strong speculations on its source other than a few early on like anyone else.

You have posted articles repeatedly calling it a hoax, but I'll leave that now.

What I have said, consistently and certainly once I got past the initial scaremongering bullshit (end of February 2020), is that Covid19, whatever its source, is not as is being presented to the public. This can be factually proven by comparison of deaths by all causes for 2020 compared with ALL years prior to 2000 from 1950 and for 4 years SINCE 2000. These are FACTS and, on the basis of those facts, the draconian stripping away of our civil liberties and the destruction of so many people's lives are based on falsehoods.

Once again you conveniently ignore all the facts that don't fit your conspiracy theory - ie all the factors leading to increased life expectancy since 1950. And if that wasn't stupid enough, you then use 2020 figures throughout the lockdown, a measure which has been proven to limit respiratory diseases, as witnessed by the low influenza numbers. Nobody will ever know how many would have died without the lockdown, buy anyone with more than half a brain can see it would have been significant.

The only mortality figures worth looking at are the expected deaths vs actual deaths, this factors in all relevant data, even the reduction in flu deaths.

You are unable to differentiate between "survived" and "unharmed", so I'm not going to bother with the long covid figures.

[Little John]

I have not said Covid19 is a "hoax". I have not made any particularly strong speculations on its source other than a few early on like anyone else.

You have posted articles repeatedly calling it a hoax, but I'll leave that now.

What I have said, consistently and certainly once I got past the initial scaremongering bullshit (end of February 2020), is that Covid19, whatever its source, is not as is being presented to the public. This can be factually proven by comparison of deaths by all causes for 2020 compared with ALL years prior to 2000 from 1950 and for 4 years SINCE 2000. These are FACTS and, on the basis of those facts, the draconian stripping away of our civil liberties and the destruction of so many people's lives are based on falsehoods.

Once again you conveniently ignore all the facts that don't fit your conspiracy theory - ie all the factors leading to increased life expectancy since 1950. And if that wasn't stupid enough, you then use 2020 figures throughout the lockdown, a measure which has been proven to limit respiratory diseases, as witnessed by the low influenza numbers. Nobody will ever know how many would have died without the lockdown, buy anyone with more than half a brain can see it would have been significant.

The only mortality figures worth looking at are the expected deaths vs actual deaths, this factors in all relevant data, even the reduction in flu deaths.

You are unable to differentiate between "survived" and "unharmed", so I'm not going to bother with the long covid figures.

There are 4 years in the period 2000 to 2019 that have the SAME OR HIGHER death rates than 2020

ALL of the deaths rates for the entire period 2000 to 2020, INCLUDING 2020, have LOWER DEATH RATE THAN THE ENTIRE 50 PRECEDING YEARS.

Which part of the above do you not understand?

I have said this many times, and not just about you here, someone has to have lost all faculty for rational thinking or be deliberately dishonest to not acknowledge the implications of the above.

Additionally, there are no "long Covid" figures any more than there are "long flu" figures.

It clearly going to come as a shock to you to discover that if you are very old and/or already suffering from several other serious co-morbidities, respiratory illness such as flu or covid19 are going to leave you f***ed for some time after.

[Catweazle]

LOWER DEATH RATE THAN THE ENTIRE 50 PRECEDING YEARS.

I repeatedly explained why, using the infant mortality rate as an example. I could also point at huge medical advances, compulsory seatbelts, health and safety laws etc., etc.. and thousands of other factors which are all taken into account when calculating the official life expectancy figures. You've already demonstrated that you don't understand those either, so you've been pointed to actuarial tables, calculated at great expense by the insurance companies who make their living with them.

The ONS have simplified it even further, with the "expected deaths" calculations, but it seems even they are beyond your grasp.

Occams razor suggests that you are stupid or delusional, but I'm inclined to believe you are radically pursuing another agenda, one that involves crashing the country as heavily as possible in pursuit of your oft written "blood on the streets".

Either way, I'm done with this.

[kenneal - lagger]

I agree with you Cat. LJ's political agenda makes him blind to any proper scientific thought and writing. If it doesn't fit with his paradigm it must be wrong or he ignores it.

There's a cartoon doing the rounds of Facebook of a man turning from his computer and saying to his wife, "Honey, I've just found something on the internet that all the doctors and scientists have missed!" It sums up LJ and co!

[clv101]

I agree with you Cat. LJ's political agenda makes him blind to any proper scientific thought and writing. If it doesn't fit with his paradigm it must be wrong or he ignores it.

There's a cartoon doing the rounds of Facebook of a man turning from his computer and saying to his wife, "Honey, I've just found something on the internet that all the doctors and scientists have missed!" It sums up LJ and co!

Does look that way.

[PS_RalphW]

Phase 2 test of AstraZenica vaccine shows it to be much less effective against the South African variant in preventing mild disease in healthy younger test subjects.

The trial was not designed to test the efficacy of the virus in preventing serious disease in older people.

This means, if we rely on the AZ vaccine for most of the population, it is only a matter of time before the SA variant breaks out and becomes the dominant strain. Therefore Covid cannot be eradicated by a single round of vaccinations, an SA specific vaccine will need to be deployed as well. It is not clear if the vaccine will prevent serious disease in older people, or if other currently available vaccines would perform better.

[UndercoverElephant]

Therefore Covid cannot be eradicated by a single round of vaccinations, an SA specific vaccine will need to be deployed as well.

In which case, covid probably cannot be eradicated at all. It is just going to keep mutating, and the harder we vaccinate, the more selective pressure there will be for the new strains to take over (whether or not they are more lethal).

Much as I disagree with LJ's evidence and reasoning, his conclusions may be not so far out. It may turn out that the battle to defeat covid is unwinnable, in which case we might as well just let it spread and accept the consequences as inevitable. What is the point in committing economic suicide fighting a battle you can't win?

[clv101]

What is the point in committing economic suicide fighting a battle you can't win?

Do you think the economy would be in better shape if we hadn't really fought it? Remember we fought it really badly resulting in both high economic cost and high public health damage. The opportunity was there to fight it better to have both lower economic cost and less public health damage, but conversely it could have been worse.

[PS_RalphW]

Best case is that the current vaccines will give enough protection to reduce deaths by 99%, and annual booster vaccines will be needed for the old and vulnerable, just like influenza.

Worst case we are nearly back at square one, with another surge as we come out of lockdown, and another 100,000 dead by years end

[Little John]

....Worst case we are nearly back at square one, with another surge as we come out of lockdown, and another 100,000 dead by years end

More hysterical horseshit

THE DEATH BY ALL CAUSES RATE FOR 2020 WAS THE SAME OR LOWER THAN 4 OTHER YEARS BETWEEN 2000 AND 2020

HOW MANY TIMES DOES THIS NEED TO BE REPEATED BEFORE IT GETS INTO YOUR DENSE SKULL?

[Little John]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... wp9RIMIt8Y

So, "Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place for next few years".



I'll bet they are.

But, some thick fucks will no doubt cheer on the continued stripping away of their civil liberties... right?

[leroy2]

....Worst case we are nearly back at square one, with another surge as we come out of lockdown, and another 100,000 dead by years end

More hysterical horseshit

THE DEATH BY ALL CAUSES RATE FOR 2020 WAS THE SAME OR LOWER THAN 4 OTHER YEARS BETWEEN 2000 AND 2020

HOW MANY TIMES DOES THIS NEED TO BE REPEATED BEFORE IT GETS INTO YOUR DENSE SKULL?

Dunno about the stats. I'm a nurse and we're on our knees compared to previous years. Covid has been everywhere on the wards.