New coronavirus in/from China

[PS_RalphW]

This is the se cond time I have had to point out to you that quoting death figures to 4th Dec MUST underestimate the true figure for the full year by at leat 10%. At least 585,000 people will have died by year's end, and possibly more. That is significantly more than the 5 year average. You clearly are ignoring even basic arithmetic.

[BritDownUnder]

I am looking at the spreadsheet you linked to and am getting 595,525 deaths (it looks like this includes 4 days of 2019 data as well) for all causes up to weekending 18 Dec 2020, I guess they update it week by week. Looks like the highest in the list from what I can see. The next highest was 541k. Given there is 1 full week and one six day period still to go could easily be over 600,000 for the year.

When I was in the actuarial world there a cause of death investigation carried out on behalf of the insurance companies. We were also told not to interpret data on face value - for instance Covid may be the cause of death rate increase but there could be also other reasons, for example, caused by lockdown and other surgeries being cancelled. The figures looks scary though and it looks like a 10% increase in deaths over the average.

[Catweazle]

=SUM(C9:BC9) in Apache Open Office.

[anotherexlurker]

I did some quick back of fag packet calculations and make it 592525 deaths V 5 year average of 523175 an increase of 13% despite all the efforts to mitigate covid 19. (its logical to assume that reduced human to human contact would have reduced overall transmission cases , and thus reduced hospital admissions which would have had a beneficial outcome for the patients.)

But you also need to consider that
1) covid 19 was unlikely to have been rampant in the UK from 1st Jan 2020.
2) Up till 13/03/2020 the total deaths was 4894 below the 5 year average (milder than usual flu season ??)
3) Week 36 (04/09/2020) stands out as 1443 less deaths than the 5 year average is a large variance for one week (probably a timing issue/or error)

I would suggest that to look at full years effect you would need to strip out at least Jan and Feb 2020 and sub with the Jan and Feb 2021 variances to the 5 year average, and that would still only give you a back of a fag packet calculation of the headline figure.

[Catweazle]

The knock-on effects are going to be difficult to account for. Lock-down means less flu, but more suicides, less road accidents but more cancer deaths, some effects won't be fully understood for years. We know the excess death numbers, they correspond with the reported covid deaths but actual covid deaths may be higher because of the downturn in flu, we don't know how many people will die from undiagnosed diseases because they didn't have access to testing.

[kenneal - lagger]

Condolences to your family.

Thanks Ken, she passed away this afternoon. Her O2 saturation level went down to 56% and they couldn't raise it, she was unresponsive and on morphine. It was peaceful, which I'm glad for, having read some horror stories of people pulling their breathing tubes out.

Sorry to hear that she died, Cat, but glad that it was peaceful. Again, condolences.

[Snail]

So Pfizer said that it only assessed its vaccine on a two-dose regimen whereby people were given the jab three weeks apart.

And "There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days"

So it makes medical sense to delay the time between the 2 Pfizer jabs by up to 3 months?

"We have real and grave concerns about these sudden changes to the Pfizer vaccine regime,” the Doctors’ Association UK, a non-profit advocacy group of volunteer medical professionals, said in a tweet Thursday. “It undermines the consent process, as well as completely failing to follow the science"

?

[PS_RalphW]

So Pfizer said that it only assessed its vaccine on a two-dose regimen whereby people were given the jab three weeks apart.

And "There are no data to demonstrate that protection after the first dose is sustained after 21 days"

So it makes medical sense to delay the time between the 2 Pfizer jabs by up to 3 months?
?

There is no data because Pfizer designed the trials so that there would be no data. They got to market first because they stayed 100% focused on one drug regime - 2 injections 3 weeks apart. Being first to market is all that counts in big pharma where the primary objective is maximizing shareholder return. There is no evidence that the vaccine won't remain effective either.

The Astra Zenica / Oxford vaccine has been developed as a non-profit operation from the start. It's trials were more varied, and the results less clear-cut as a result. However, there is evidence and precedent from similar vaccines that delaying the second injection by 12 weeks will not reduce the long term effectiveness, and even one injection appears to sharply reduce the severity of any infection caused by covid, if it happens before the second jab.

UK supplies of the Pfizer vaccine are limited. It is expensive and difficult to handle, needing storage at -70C

The Oxford vaccine is cheap, easy to use and will be available at a rate of 1 million doses a week, with enough to vaccinate almost the entire
population.

Once the Oxford vaccine starts rolling out in significant numbers, we can forget the Pfizer one except for the people who have already had one injection. We will be more than busy enough finding people qualified to administer it in sufficient quantities.
Delaying the second jab is clearly the right call on this occasion.

[Snail]

I can understand the reasoning with the oxford vaccine, but I'd be a bit miffed having the first pfizer jab and then waiting another 8 weeks say. Especially after the three weeks was stressed and the company itself has so publicly come out against the delay. if I were an older person, would I have the confidence that I'm as protected.

It's also highlighted the shortcomings of rushing the vaccines. Which will put people off the idea itself.

I see some doctors have said they're not going to delay the pfizer jabs.

[clv101]

The big policy mistake was changing the protocol for the few hundred thousand that had already had the 1st shot. They should have gone ahead with the 2nd at the original date. Going forward, it makes perfect sense to delay the 2nd shot for those only receiving the 1st shot this week.

Worth watching John Campbell on this today: https://youtu.be/M-jqf6i5OLc from 8:40.

[BritDownUnder]

I'd like to know why the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine for the UK distribution is made in Belgium while the same vaccine for Australian distribution is to be made in Melbourne. The benefits of the EU I guess.

Let's hope these vaccines work. When I was working as a graduate in 'Big Pharma', Astra was very much resting on its Zantac laurels and not inventing very much.

[kenneal - lagger]

Despite what LJ might say BBC was reporting higher occupancy than March for covid patients in London hospitals and other hospitals getting worried about high numbers of covid admissions. They are also reporting more young people being admitted with the new variant of covid. Whether there are just more young people getting the virus due to a lack of precautions on their part and a consequent higher hospitalisation rate or whether the new variant is harder on the young no one has said.

There are definite reports that this new variant is causing more spread and greater precautions are needed to stop its spread.

[kenneal - lagger]

Not heard from VT recently. Hope he is OK.

[Little John]

Meanwhile, some more data

[PS_RalphW]

Thee British Medical Journal reports that the Russian deputy prime minister has admitted Russia under reported Covid deaths by a factor of three, only reporting deaths where covid was tested for after death.

The country has had over 200,000 excess deaths this year, of which he ascribed over 180,00 to Covid, making Russian death rate per million the highest of any large country at over 1200, and third highest absolute figure.

Mexico has also admitted seriously underestimating Covid deaths.

Putin spends most of his time in isolation in his dacha