Are we still in denial?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

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I haven't fully come to terms with peak oil and its implications.

Agree (I haven't fully accepted the implications of peak oil)
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Disagree (I have fully integrated the reality of peak oil into my world view)
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kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

The A types are not in a Moscow food queue, they are distributing the food. The A types in Russia are the ex communist party and people who run the Secret Policeman's Ball. Where there is a structure some people will always rise to the top and, in Russia, it seems to be the most unpleasant. The more closed the system, the more the more unpleasant rise to the top. With our more open system, hopefully, we do a bit better.

Has anyone watched the BBC program, Tribe, recently? There have been a few tribes shown there who work for the common good rather than the individual. That's the sort of system we need to aim for. It's a bit of a turn around for an arch Tory but I can see that that system of, I suppose you would call it, pure socialism works. Especially in a situation where there are limited resources and they must be shared.

Our present abberation of Capitalism has become as bad as the abberation of socialism called communism with wealth and power being concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. Who will be the ultimate capitalist?

Going back to the Tribe, I suppose working for the good of the community could be dependant on having a fairly steady level of resources. If there were not enough resources, as in a post peak oil/everything scenario, the stresses and strains put on a community could lead to a grab for sufficient for one's family/community/nation at the expense of others - Resources Wars of one scale or another.

The A type would probably say fight while others, the female?, might say share. Certainly the resources wasted fighting would be better used being shared. What happens if we are attacked? Do we fight or do we do as the Greeks, and many other nations, have done over the years, and absorb the invader, live with them and turn them. Thinking about that, it's what the British did after 1066 and possibly before.
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Erik
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Post by Erik »

kenneal wrote:The A type would probably say fight while others, the female?, might say share. Certainly the resources wasted fighting would be better used being shared.

On a global level, if you accept that there are too many people on this planet and that a die-off is necessary, then wouldn't wars (non-nuclear) lead to less resources being wasted due to more "consumers" being killed off?!
What happens if we are attacked? Do we fight or do we do as the Greeks, and many other nations, have done over the years, and absorb the invader, live with them and turn them. Thinking about that, it's what the British did after 1066 and possibly before.
I don't think there has ever been much of a choice here. "Absorbing" the invader means allowing the invader to dominate your tribe instead of simply anihilating it. The very fact that they're invading means that they're agressive A types who don't really care about your tribe unless they can make use of it, i.e. put its human resources to work. Trying to fight off the invader is the only choice we're capable of.
eatyourveg
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Post by eatyourveg »

stumuz wrote:Just to add a quick philosophical note to confuse the subject.
The discussion about A types coming to the surface and grabbing resources. This may not happen in a culturally changed country.
The first point is the simplest, energy on a small scale does not pay, and so, the big boys will not want to play. Take wood for example, if a large wood CHP plant opens up down the road the individual will always be able to outbid the big boys for small diffuse bits of wood.
The second point is A types are organisational Zeus in character, resource grabbing is a personal fight between two individuals, the strongest will get the wood, food and veg oil etc.
The last point about A types is the fact that they rely on organisation ( either state or corporation) to protect them and achieve their goals, without that protection the rules of the game change. An example would be feminist jurisprudence. To explain very simply feminist jurists believe the law is male, such as to succeed in a negligence claim you would have to prove that a reasonable MAN would or would not have done the act complained of, or, the law assumes we are individuals in a liberal democracy, the feminists would say individuality is a male concept as females have a caring and sharing concept so therefore the law is male.
Now, the last 30 years has seen a political belief which is taught at schools/university/workplace that we are all equal. There should be no discrimination on the grounds of gender, race, disability, transsexualality to name but a few. The one thing that these groups rely on is protection by the state and the power of the state to enforce their rights
Now for the big question, if the state is reduced after PO how many of these groups will be protected?
If resource grabbing is going to become commonplace should we align ourselves to the protection of a strong male with a good fiefdom?
The A types that I have met tend to be single minded single subject go getters. It would be interesting to see how much more bread they would get in a 1990?s Moscow food que???.

Stop raising such interesting questions some of us have to work!!
The meek are under the impression that they have inherited the earth?
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Andy Hunt
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Post by Andy Hunt »

greg wrote:The meek are under the impression that they have inherited the earth?
The meek shall indeed inherit the Earth. The question is, who shall inherit the meek?
Andy Hunt
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Eternal Sunshine wrote: I wouldn't want to worry you with the truth. :roll:
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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

kenneal wrote: It's a bit of a turn around for an arch Tory but I can see that that system of, I suppose you would call it, pure socialism works.
I would call it libertarian socialism or anarchism.
kenneal wrote: Our present abberation of Capitalism has become as bad as the abberation of socialism called communism with wealth and power being concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. Who will be the ultimate capitalist?
I'm glad you said that because i think i came accross as a bit of raving commie or something earlier on, its just that i've been reading Noam Chomsky's Understanding Power (one for you book list Vortex).
He points out that people like Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith were warning against giving to corporations the sort of power they now have.
I always had some kind of feeling that there wasnt much difference between Soviet communism and the current capitalist system (concentration of power) before i heard someone like Chomsky articulate it.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

If you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare back into you. - Friedrich Nietzche
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

The power thing is what scares me the most about PO frankly, things like will slavery come back etc etc.

However there is one mitigating factor: the aggressive types tend to expend a lot of their time/resources anihilating EACH OTHER leaving less time to waste the rest of us. The art of survival, for those of us who have no taste for shooting people and then spending all night watching our backs, consistes of avoiding these characters and teaming up with more co-operative sorts for mutual gain. Better still, once our gainful system is up and running, any aggressive types who stumble into it, if they have 2 braincells to rub together, will leave it as is and just skim off a share. Contrary to popular belief a lot of the Mongol 'occupation' of China turned out like that.
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Post by syberberg »

RenewableCandy wrote:Better still, once our gainful system is up and running, any aggressive types who stumble into it, if they have 2 braincells to rub together, will leave it as is and just skim off a share. Contrary to popular belief a lot of the Mongol 'occupation' of China turned out like that.
A more recent example is the Chinese takeover of Hong Kong, where they've done exactly that.
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21st_century_caveman
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Post by 21st_century_caveman »

These type A fascists will never win, just look at what is happening in Burma.
The people of this great planet who want cooperation not competition will i hope soon rise up and peacefully overthrow the type A control freaks.
It could well be inevitable because i think the only way that life on this planet is going to survive the coming/present challenges is through cooperation.
Evolution in action.
Humans always do the most intelligent thing after every stupid alternative has failed. - R. Buckminster Fuller

If you stare too long into the abyss, the abyss will stare back into you. - Friedrich Nietzche
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

21st_century_caveman wrote:These type A fascists will never win, just look at what is happening in Burma.
I would note that they have been winning in Burma for 27 years...

You have to take a long term persective, I think from an evolutionary point of view each type of character is better adapted to a different resource environment. Right now, energy shortages mean that environment is changing, and the Alpha male is probably (hopefully) going into decline. I hope Burma doesn't descend into anarchy like Iraq,
but that depends on the Bhuddist monks surviving the downfall of the regime. Without them, Burma is toast.
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Post by Vortex »

Right now, energy shortages mean that environment is changing, and the Alpha male is probably (hopefully) going into decline.
I think not. Energy descent - when made public - will be seen as a super challenge by the A types.

Imagine a world full of Linda Snells ... with power .... <shudder>

Seriously, we will need to re-engineer the world quite soon ... and this does NOT mean growing veg in the garden or getting an allotment.

It means tons of planning, operational research, resource optimisation etc ... a bit like a space shot or a war crisis.

The A types will be running all this.

Britain was essentially a fascist dictatorship during the privations of the war.

The State decided where you lived, what you grew, what you could buy or eat, what fuel you could use.

We should not be surprised to experience the same again ... FOR EVER & EVER this time around.
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Sorry but who is Linda Snell? Is it an Alpha Male, a bit like Maggie Thatcher?
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

Vortex wrote:Seriously, we will need to re-engineer the world quite soon ... and this does NOT mean growing veg in the garden or getting an allotment.

It means tons of planning, operational research, resource optimisation etc ... a bit like a space shot or a war crisis.
I guess you haven't read the 'collapse of complex civilisations' by Tainter.

He basically says that human societies develop complexity and organisation in responce to resource constraints, but after a while the process of development hits diminishing AND THEN NEGATIVE returns on investment. At that point the civilisation collapses - or is taken over by another.

Since we are now talking about global civilisation, collapse seems to me to be the only option.

Growing veg and the transition town movement is the ONLY alternative.
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PS_RalphW
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Post by PS_RalphW »

RenewableCandy wrote:Sorry but who is Linda Snell? Is it an Alpha Male, a bit like Maggie Thatcher?
Lynda Snell (Carole Boyd) lives at Ambridge Hall with her husband Robert Snell. They moved to Ambridge from Sunningdale in 1986 and is resented as an outsider, a do-gooder and incomer. She is a keen gardener, and is often involved in disputes with her neighbour Joe Grundy. In 2003 she acquired two llamas, Wolfgang and Constanza (named after Mozart and his wife) who have been known to roam around the village - (let's try to forget there's a llama in the room). In May 2007 Constanza gave birth to a cria which Lynda named Salieri, reassuring one acquaintance that the legend of Salieri murdering Mozart is a myth. She attempts to produce a play every Christmas (an Archers in-joke), and often drives villagers to distraction in her attempts to fill parts. In 2004-05 Lynda ran a campaign to renovate the former Cat & Fiddle pub. Despite recruiting the help of Griff Rhys Jones, the scheme failed and the building (may have) become flats. January 2006 saw Lynda elected to the parish council alongside Lilian Bellamy. According to a BBC survey she is the most annoying character on the show.

Wikipedia
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RenewableCandy
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Post by RenewableCandy »

Yup I think the tonnes of planning is what people are TRYING to do now and it really IS adding to the complexity...Carbon markets building regs EU directives...all with the best of intentions but all, collectively, having a stymieing effect on anybody's ability to actually DO anything.
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Post by Vortex »

I guess you haven't read the 'collapse of complex civilisations' by Tainter.
Last week actually :) together with "Collapse" and "The Upside Of Down".

I really do feel that the A types WILL (try to) get things organised as energy descent kicks in.

The current carbon credits etc will be ignored ... major conservation, nuclear, wind & other projects will be started .. a major paradigm shift in the current approach.

Government will at some time jump in with (nasty) enabling powers.

It remains to be seen if any such plans succeed ....

(The 3rd world of course will go down the tubes ... they don't have the resource base or the Protestant Work Ethic to make much of an attempt to build a low energy yet high tech society)
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