Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

>> I'd be pretty worried if I was Russian right now...

Err ... I'm pretty worried and I'm 1500 miles away!

[Vortex2]

>> You are sounding increasingly desperate to find anything to say, vortex

????

[Vortex2]

>> I am sure a simple VPN will enable you to stream RT through an Indian or Chinese server.

Good idea! Thanks.

A VPN route through Japan seems to work.

CORRECTION : that link has now died. Ho, humm.

[automaticearth2]

>> I'd be pretty worried if I was Russian right now...

Err ... I'm pretty worried and I'm 1500 miles away!

Yes, V, you've got a point. After hearing Lavrov's rambling speech today, plus Macron giving up on Putin, things aren't looking too great.....

[Mark]

>> I'd be pretty worried if I was Russian right now...

Err ... I'm pretty worried and I'm 1500 miles away!

Yes, V, you've got a point. After hearing Lavrov's rambling speech today, plus Macron giving up on Putin, things aren't looking too great.....

That's the problem with wars - they're unpredictable....
Who knows how this one might end, but I certainly don't feel hopeful at the mo....

[clv101]

To me, this seems the most serious geopolitical event in many decades. More serious than Covid (turned out to be, but 2 yrs ago it looked pretty bad!), more serious than the financial crisis, Syria, Afghanistan/Iraq invasions or Gulf War I.

I'm seeing an unsettling amount of complacency both on Russia's capabilities / competency and on the impacts of the economic sanctions. The price hikes alone in oil, gas and coal are incredible given the weekend state of the global economy and inflationary pressures. But we're not just looking at energy price hikes - there will be materially less on the market. But it's not just energy - Russia is a major exporter of a whole lot of metals, materials, food and chemicals. No alternative sources can replace Russia [too big to fail].

The total economic war the West is waging against Russia is unprecedented, will have global spillover impacts and Russia is totally capable of returning the pain, indirectly by preventing exports or directly by blowing sh*t up. The west seems weirdly complacent about Russian retaliation for us destroying their economy.

[automaticearth2]

To me, this seems the most serious geopolitical event in many decades. More serious than Covid (turned out to be, but 2 yrs ago it looked pretty bad!), more serious than the financial crisis, Syria, Afghanistan/Iraq invasions or Gulf War I.

I'm seeing an unsettling amount of complacency both on Russia's capabilities / competency and on the impacts of the economic sanctions. The price hikes alone in oil, gas and coal are incredible given the weekend state of the global economy and inflationary pressures. But we're not just looking at energy price hikes - there will be materially less on the market. But it's not just energy - Russia is a major exporter of a whole lot of metals, materials, food and chemicals. No alternative sources can replace Russia [too big to fail].

The total economic war the West is waging against Russia is unprecedented, will have global spillover impacts and Russia is totally capable of returning the pain, indirectly by preventing exports or directly by blowing sh*t up. The west seems weirdly complacent about Russian retaliation for us destroying their economy.

Oh I agree entirely. There was a really good segment on Newsnight last night pretty much pointing out what you've said above. When you've got companies like Gazprom effectively turning into penny stocks almost overnight, that can't be good for anyone's pension funds. Our oil becoming super expensive while everyone else is turning their back on Russian-sourced oil and gas. One energy analyst was saying that rationing could be a very real possibility, at least in Europe if things don't improve quickly (which I guess they won't).

[adam2]

I agree. The west is unduly complacent about the military capabilities of Russia. I suspect that a lot of Russian military equipment is in poor condition or obsolete, BUT they have vast quantities of equipment and this will compensate for poor quality, at least to an extent.
1000 tanks, only 100 of which are in good working order can still outgun a country with 40 tanks. Just don't put the dodgy ones at the front of the an advancing column. And of course some of the 900 unserviceable tanks can be repaired.
If they wont run, they can be towed into place, dug in and used as a well defended static artillery emplacement.

I think that the west has better weapons, and better men, but the Russians might win by sheer force of numbers.

And yes the west is unduly reliant on fuel from Russia. We need more renewables NOW. Every wind turbine is a vote for freedom.

On a lighter note, has anyone noticed the popularity of tee shirts printed with "PUCK FUTIN" No direct use of expletives but I think that the intention is clear.

[automaticearth2]

Whoops.....not good:

https://www.axios.com/nord-stream-2-ban ... 4DpTs[url][/url]

What they're saying: "We cannot confirm the media reports that Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy," Nord Stream 2 AG — a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom — said in a statement.

[Mark]

I think that the west has better weapons, and better men, but the Russians might win by sheer force of numbers.

Adam, there are NO winners in this - only losers

[automaticearth2]

I agree. The west is unduly complacent about the military capabilities of Russia. I suspect that a lot of Russian military equipment is in poor condition or obsolete, BUT they have vast quantities of equipment and this will compensate for poor quality, at least to an extent.
1000 tanks, only 100 of which are in good working order can still outgun a country with 40 tanks. Just don't put the dodgy ones at the front of the an advancing column. And of course some of the 900 unserviceable tanks can be repaired.
If they wont run, they can be towed into place, dug in and used as a well defended static artillery emplacement.

I think that the west has better weapons, and better men, but the Russians might win by sheer force of numbers.

And yes the west is unduly reliant on fuel from Russia. We need more renewables NOW. Every wind turbine is a vote for freedom.

On a lighter note, has anyone noticed the popularity of tee shirts printed with "PUCK FUTIN" No direct use of expletives but I think that the intention is clear.

Germany is shipping over 2000 Soviet era anti tank weapons to Ukraine from a former eastern German warehouse. You couldn't make this stuff up. Also, Ukraine using Turkish made drones that seem to very effective. Can you imagine if the USA sent a bunch of A-10 warthog aircraft, painted Ukraine insignia on the side, and let them get on with it? The convoy in Kiev would be toast. Sorry, Kyiv...

[clv101]

I thought we'd see a global food crisis in the next few years, within a decade. But it's going to be this year. The wheat market is already tight/short after Canada's drought/heat and Russia's hard winter. Ukraine was a major exported, won't be this year and Russia's will be sanctioned.

[PS_RalphW]

Fire reported at Ukraine's biggest nuclear plant site after Russian shelling

Shelling has stopped. Radiation levels normal for now

[automaticearth2]

[urlhttps://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1575580/Ru ... -latest-vn][/url]

'Dear stock market. Rest in peace, dear comrade'

[mr brightside]

I've just read that the reactors have passive cooling capability, but they take ages to stop producing heat after the control rods are in. Squeaky bum time.