Gas alert as demand and prices rise

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 18 Oct 2013, 19:04

Put a jumper on.

Post by **clv101** » 18 Oct 2013, 21:45

Here are my thoughts from last October... still apply:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2012/10/why-ar ... ncreasing/

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 19 Oct 2013, 19:55

Do we import more gas than we produce yet?

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 21 Oct 2013, 09:47

Since 2004:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... tics-dukes

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 21 Oct 2013, 10:37

Err, no, Pepperman, we still produced more than we imported in 2012, just. I expect we now import more than half we consume.

This is the kind of mix-up that makes Americans think they are not oil exporters.

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 21 Oct 2013, 13:27

Sorry it was a hasty reading and misunderstanding of what cubes asked. I thought he was just asking about whether we were net importers.

From DUKES:

"The UK imports natural gas by pipelines from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands and LNG by ship. The UK has been a net importer of gas since 2004 with net imports of gas in 2012 accounting for 47 per cent of supply"

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 21 Oct 2013, 17:35

clv101 wrote:Here are my thoughts from last October... still apply:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2012/10/why-ar ... ncreasing/

I was looking at the graph in the link and was wondering whether they had crossed yet - which looked like it would indicate being a net importer at this point, but maybe I've read the graph wrong.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 21 Oct 2013, 17:46

clv101 wrote:Here are my thoughts from last October... still apply:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2012/10/why-ar ... ncreasing/

The link to the CSE has changed. This might be better.

Your point about reducing energy demand by the same percentage as the price increase is a valid one, often missed. Making a yearly (at least) energy saving is what we all should be doing.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 22 Oct 2013, 03:49

emordnilap wrote: Making a yearly (at least) energy saving is what we all should be doing.

The only way to make an effective energy reduction is to make the maximum one that you can. Trying to upgrade on things like wall insulation is just too expensive and involves a lot of waste of materials.Renewing your windows after having had the walls insulated externally or internally ruin the wall insulation. Even increasing the loft insulation from, say, the current requirement of 250mm of fibre to the ultimate of 450 would be problematic from the access point of view - how do you walk across 250 deep insulation over a plasterboard ceiling?

No! All at once is by far the best. With the National House Insulation Scheme you would achieve 80% saving in one hit.

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 22 Oct 2013, 08:04

kenneal - lagger wrote:Renewing your windows after having had the walls insulated externally or internally ruin the wall insulation.

How so?

kenneal - lagger wrote:No! All at once is by far the best. With the National House Insulation Scheme you would achieve 80% saving in one hit.

I agree with the sentiment but in practice most people don't have the ability to do this either in terms of up front cash or access to sufficiently cheap finance to make the energy savings pay the costs. Whole house refurb is very expensive at the moment for a large chunk of the housing stock.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 22 Oct 2013, 10:42

kenneal - lagger wrote:
emordnilap wrote: Making a yearly (at least) energy saving is what we all should be doing.
The only way to make an effective energy reduction is to make the maximum one that you can. Trying to upgrade on things like wall insulation is just too expensive and involves a lot of waste of materials.Renewing your windows after having had the walls insulated externally or internally ruin the wall insulation. Even increasing the loft insulation from, say, the current requirement of 250mm of fibre to the ultimate of 450 would be problematic from the access point of view - how do you walk across 250 deep insulation over a plasterboard ceiling?

No! All at once is by far the best. With the National House Insulation Scheme you would achieve 80% saving in one hit.

All well and good and points taken but there's more to energy saving than insulation, essential though that is. I maintain that looking for ways of reducing energy usage is not a one-off thing. It should be part and parcel of your mindset and high on the list all the time. Also, money is limited.

Post by **adam2** » 23 Oct 2013, 08:42

Electricity being generated from natural gas is at present* only 1.7GW, this is very low by historical standards, and may be a low for recent years.
Certainly seems to be a low for a weekday morning.
Wind is contributing more than gas, and is meeting about 10% of the national demand for electricity.
This wont carry on all winter of course, but every GWH generated from wind is a corresponding amount of gas not burnt and available for latter use.

*at time of posting, liable to change of course.

EDIT TO ADD Data obtained from here http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

Which is normally an accurate near real time source of information.
BUT I am not certain if it is accurate at present ? figures look a bit odd ? eapecialy the fact that nothing has changed for a bit, suggesting that the data showing is perhaps a few hours old and NOT an accurate view of present conditions.

Well over 10% from wind is still impressive though, even if it was overnight and not now.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 23 Oct 2013, 17:21

It looks OK now, but yes the overnight lines all look a bit flat. Still 10% from wind atm though

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Oct 2013, 08:27

Strange thing happened to the long range gas storage at Rough a week ago. Here's the dates and the storage level in GWh:
17/10/2013 35374.81
18/10/2013 36374.69

Now you may wonder what's wrong with that, but the maximum injection shown anywhere else in their data is 350GWh/day. Yet here we have a curiously round number of 1,000 GWh in a single day (give or a take a bit). (data from http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/ ... lorer.aspx )

It looks to me like they have redefined the lower limit on storage, based on the fact that they they managed to take the level down to -337GWh on 13 Apr 2013. I suppose it makes sense to do this if they found they really could use this gas without any technical problems, but it does have the convenient side effect of adding 10 days' worth of gas (at recent filling rates) to the store overnight...

I can't find anything in the news about the lower limit being redefined though. Any thoughts?

Post by **adam2** » 12 Nov 2013, 16:15

Total gas storage is now nearly static at about 91/92% full.
This is more than I expected, and does slightly reduce the risk of a crisis latter in the winter.

Stocks should suffice provided that no exceptional circumstances occur.
Examples include

A very severe or unusually long winter
A much greater than average number of breakdowns at nuclear plants
Events overseas significantly curtailing imports.
Prolonged exceptionly calm weather

Any one of the above could probably be handled, but a combination of say a severe winter and a spate of breakdowns at nuclear plants could have serious consequences.

Doubts also exist as to the sufficiency of electrical generating capacity this winter (as distinct from concerns regarding fuel stocks) Any shortage of electricity from the usuall sources could drive up gas consumption alarmingly both by inreasing the running hours of CCGT plant, and resorting to the gas gobbling emergency reserve OCGT plant.