Thoughts on 2012

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 16 Dec 2011, 12:11

stumuzz wrote:Well done Ralph.

It seems you may have been seriously underestimating your importance to the company.

I don't think so, I think he thought the whole company was going.

Still, Ralph, glad to hear that you still have a job.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 16 Dec 2011, 12:17

mobbsey wrote:2012 will be just like 2011, except the excuses from the political and corporate world will look even more threadbare than they do today.

Nah... I have a gut feeling that 2012 will be the year that everything changes. I'm coming to think maybe events won't just be dramatic, but downright WEIRD, I mean so weird that people will be questioning their own sanity.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Dec 2011, 12:24

Ludwig wrote: I don't think so, I think he thought the whole company was going.

Still, Ralph, glad to hear that you still have a job.

I am only important because everybody else with any IT skills jumped ship 2 years ago...

...and I may have spoken too soon. The contract to be signed 'within the next few minutes' 10am yesterday morning has still not been signed.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 16 Dec 2011, 22:24

Ludwig wrote:
mobbsey wrote:2012 will be just like 2011, except the excuses from the political and corporate world will look even more threadbare than they do today.
Nah... I have a gut feeling that 2012 will be the year that everything changes. I'm coming to think maybe events won't just be dramatic, but downright WEIRD, I mean so weird that people will be questioning their own sanity.

Yep, I think I'll go with this view. When events/changes are sufficiently different from normal, people will literally find it hard to believe. This causes people to question their sanity..... of course this won't happen to us as we are not expecting BAU!

I also agree that trying to continue BAU will cause additional harm and make the downslope ever steeper.

It will be great if we decline gently, but no matter how hard I try, I just can't make myself believe it....

There are too many Dominoes waiting to fall.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Dec 2011, 16:24

Agree snow hope - 2012 should be a very interesting year

the_lyniezian · Post by **the_lyniezian** » 17 Dec 2011, 16:32

I offer few predictions. Suffice to say:

1. Economic problems will still continue to blight us, and there will quite probably never be any satisfactory solution to the Euro crisis. This could coulse another major downturn, possibly to another Great Depression or worse.

2. The world will not end on December 21st, even if it is a much different, and worse, place.

3. Analogue TV will be history by the end of the year, one way or the other. (Not that it's relevant, but it's he one thing I can predict with absolute certainty.)

4. I probably still won't get a job, though I ought to at least make more effort.

Whatever happens, we will certainly be living in "interesting times"!

Post by **clv101** » 19 Dec 2011, 15:03

The BBC News website have a summary of 2011:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16089232

In addition to the highlights in the image we had the phone hacking, Kim Jong-il's death, the Arab Spring domino, floods in Thailand, Steve Jobs's death...

What 2012's chart going to look like?

AnOriginalIdea · Post by **AnOriginalIdea** » 19 Dec 2011, 15:17

clv101 wrote:
What 2012's chart going to look like?

It will have as little to do with peak oil as your figure?

Post by **clv101** » 19 Dec 2011, 15:51

Here are Ziggy's predictions for 2011, how'd he do?

ziggy12345 wrote:BP will turn out to be a great investment
Shell shares will skyrocket once they have off-loaded there Nigerian onshore fields
Gold prices will collapse
One or more EU countries will decide to pull out of the Euro
UK Gov will sell off the BBC (then maybe it will stop harping on about global bloody warming)
Pakistan will go back to military rule
There will be a major earthquake in the USA
Truck Hijacking will increase dramatically in Europe and UK
It will be the hottest year since record began (again)
At the first sign of the sun in May all of the water companies will announce its a drought and hike their bills

Well, BP are around 10% down on the year, but Shell are up by a similar amount. Gold prices, rather than collapsing are up around 16% (in dollars). No one's pulled out of the Euro (yet) and the BBC hasn't been sold off. Pakistan is closer to military rule now than a year ago - but not quite there yet. No major US earthquake. No dramatic increase in truck hijacking I've heard of. 2011 isn't the hottest year, the projection a couple of weeks ago from Durban was that 2011 will tie for 10th hottest. Despite there actually being very little rainfall in most of England, it has been a drought but I don't think prices have been hiked (or hosepipes even banned).

I'd be interested to know why you think 2011 didn't pan out how you'd expected, and in light of that what you now think will happen in 2012?

Post by **clv101** » 19 Dec 2011, 15:54

AnOriginalIdea wrote:
clv101 wrote:
What 2012's chart going to look like?
It will have as little to do with peak oil as your figure?

I think the Egyptian revolution, UK budget and the England riots were all influenced by peak oil. Arguably also Gaddafi's death.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 19 Dec 2011, 18:15

snow hope wrote: Yep, I think I'll go with this view. When events/changes are sufficiently different from normal, people will literally find it hard to believe. This causes people to question their sanity..... of course this won't happen to us as we are not expecting BAU!

I also agree that trying to continue BAU will cause additional harm and make the downslope ever steeper.

It will be great if we decline gently, but no matter how hard I try, I just can't make myself believe it.... There are too many Dominoes waiting to fall.

I may be wrong, but from recent reading I'm wondering if things might get even weirder than we have been expecting - whether in fact some of our basic misconceptions about existence may be revealed. I think there are powerful people out there who know far more than they have ever let on.

Whatever happens, I think a lot of it will have been planned, and planned a long, long time in advance.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Dec 2011, 18:34

I predict that we shall never, ever, reach "Peak Weird".

I also wonder about fracking and that alleged supervolcano. But that's just wondering, really.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 19 Dec 2011, 18:34

clv101 wrote: I'd be interested to know why you think 2011 didn't pan out how you'd expected, and in light of that what you now think will happen in 2012?

Ziggy made the mistake of being too specific in his predictions, but they weren't unreasonable ones. (Not sure about the gold price mind you.)

The problem is that our confidence in our opinions, as we learn more, increases at a far higher rate than our actual relative proximity to the truth. There is always vastly more that we don't know than that we know. Therefore, the more we know, the more specific and thus the more inaccurate our predictions become

I make no specific predictions except that I think there will be one or more truly colossal events in 2012, that will overshadow anything from 2011; and none of these events will be what they seem.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 19 Dec 2011, 19:50

RenewableCandy wrote:I also wonder about fracking

Peak oil? Of course.

extractorfan · Post by **extractorfan** » 19 Dec 2011, 21:30

Ludwig wrote:
I make no specific predictions except that I think there will be one or more truly colossal events in 2012, that will overshadow anything from 2011; and none of these events will be what they seem.

Nice post. The collapse of the euro would surely be a colossal event that may even reduce the oil price for some considerable time, something that may be perceived as a good thing but would in fact cause more problems further down the line. That is if the growth economies of the rest of the developed and developing worlds survive it.