New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 15:39

HMG data as at 25th April ... that ' good result' 20k mark mentioned a month ago now reached

As of 9am on 25 April, 640,792 tests have concluded, with 28,760 tests carried out on 24 April.

517,836 people have been tested, of whom 148,377 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 24 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 20,319 have died.

Deaths climbing, cases dropping but TBH seems like a bumpy plateau.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Apr 2020, 15:49

Little John wrote:The American military industrial complex is dead set on this all ending in war Trump or no Trump, Obama or no Obama etc etc etc.

.

I see little if any evidence of that. The American military industrial complex is quite happy to build weapons systems that are never used as there is no extra profit in using them . Also they don't like the risks involved in actually testing a system in combat fearing another Mark 14 torpedo debacle.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 16:01

Excess deaths data source

Excess deaths may be a decent way of estimating COV-19 deaths.

The site below provides useful data - but the country data is annoying, provided as z-scores not actual excess deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

UPDATE : The ONS webpage is probably more useful.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 0april2020

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Apr 2020, 16:37

Vortex2 wrote:Excess deaths data source

Excess deaths may be a decent way of estimating COV-19 deaths.

The site below provides useful data - but the country data is annoying, provided as z-scores not actual excess deaths.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Yes probably the best estimate in the end, but I will throw out one cravat. All the efforts to minimize Covid-19 transmissions have undoubtedly also reduced the incidence of other communicable diseases like common flu ,pneumonia, and even the common cold. So you will see something like two less deaths from these other diseases balancing four deaths from Covid-19 showing up as just two extra deaths not four. (small random numbers for example only). Have to keep that in mind or quantify it when the results come in.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 16:54

Is a final death toll of anyway near 400k possible?

Assuming that:

* 4% of the population have currently been infected/immunised by the virus

* 20k of that 4% have died

we then have 5k deaths per one percent of the population.

So assuming say 80% being infected by the end of all this, we end up with 80 x 5k deaths total i.e. 400k deaths.

Note: That 20k death count so far is probably an underestimate - the true figure is maybe 30k - 40k. That will make the final death total even worse ... and there will be long-term health damage to survivors to consider too.

(Containment etc will NOT reduce the total death count - just modify the timing. Medications / vaccines could however reduce the final count. In fact that is what I assume we are waiting for)

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 25 Apr 2020, 16:57

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:The American military industrial complex is dead set on this all ending in war Trump or no Trump, Obama or no Obama etc etc etc.

.
I see little if any evidence of that. The American military industrial complex is quite happy to build weapons systems that are never used as there is no extra profit in using them . Also they don't like the risks involved in actually testing a system in combat fearing another Mark 14 torpedo debacle.

I agree. If there is to be war, it's more likely towards the second half of this decade by which time I fear we will have got to total economic collapse, fiat currency failure and an entire re-set of the financial systems. This is unlikely to happen peacefully. Countries will be jockeying for position in the meantime and deciding who are their allies and perhaps that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Bedrock Barney · Post by **Bedrock Barney** » 25 Apr 2020, 17:03

I have finally heard of two Covid cases within my wide group of friends and family. The first is the death of a very distant relative. A man in his late 70's with a whole host of pre existing conditions including advanced cancer. I suspect his death has gone on to the official books as Covid 19 but he was in the very last stages of life in any case and I doubt would have survived beyond the summer even without the virus.

The second is the 70 something father of an old University pal. Went into hospital with a serous liver complaint, got the virus whilst in hospital (!) but managed to fight it off and is now back home and recovering.

Been out for a long walk today. Lots more people out and about. The lockdown is definitely easing here.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 17:11

From Mitigation to Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Putting the SARS-CoV-2 Genie Back in the Bottle

Interesting overview of the way forward.

Key paragraph:

Whereas expansive testing is critical, testing alone is insufficient. Vital to any screening program is the action taken when a test result is positive. People identified with COVID-19 must be immediately informed, educated, isolated, and then their contacts efficiently identified, all in a manner sensitive to individual needs. Modeling studies suggest that to achieve effective control, contacts must be quarantined within 24 hours; SARS-CoV-2 transmission is simply too fast and manual contact-tracing too slow to curb epidemic spread. Rapid and effective tracing of contacts of infected individuals mandates creative app-based methods for immediate contact notification and quarantine.

Sadly I don't think that the UK wil 'do' containment very well : the intense testing, contact tracing and subsequent forced quarantines won't suit the British personality.

Serious comment : we need a model showing what might happen with poor testing, poor PPE and a recalcitrant population.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2764956

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 17:15

Lots more people out and about. The lockdown is definitely easing here.

Daughter has just reported the same for Moreton-in-Marsh.

Not too sensible as I assume we must be somewhere near the peak of infected people wandering around,

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 17:24

Research suggests coronavirus can cause blood clots and may lead to strokes

Not sure if this a a 'real' or significant feature of COVID-19, but there are hints that younger people are having strokes due to the virus.

The virus certainly thickens the blood, and hospitals find that blood thinners don't work. Post mortems can can show a lot of bleeding/clotting in the lungs.

So maybe strokes - at any age - are part of the deal?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/ ... s/12176826

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 25 Apr 2020, 17:34

Vortex2 wrote:
Not too sensible as I assume we must be somewhere near the peak of infected people wandering around,

Would that it were.
The first infected starting in mid March are just now recovering enough to no longer being infectious. (best guess I have found as no one knows for sure yet). It will take a full month for that beginning upslope to clear meanwhile you are gaining about 5000 new cases a day which more then replaces those coming off the active case load. A month from today you may well be at 280,000 cases walking around unless daily case load actually starts decreasing.
I hope I am wrong in this.

Post by **clv101** » 25 Apr 2020, 19:44

Vortex2 wrote: (Containment etc will NOT reduce the total death count - just modify the timing. Medications / vaccines could however reduce the final count. In fact that is what I assume we are waiting for)

Sure it will, that's the whole point of flattening the curve, not overwhelming the health system. Without containment etc, the number of critical cases peaks beyond the health system's ability to treat and the fatality rate increases. - people who would have survived with treatment, die for lack of treatment.

Post by **clv101** » 25 Apr 2020, 19:45

Bedrock Barney wrote:If there is to be war, it's more likely towards the second half of this decade by which time I fear we will have got to total economic collapse, fiat currency failure and an entire re-set of the financial systems. This is unlikely to happen peacefully. Countries will be jockeying for position in the meantime and deciding who are their allies and perhaps that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Absolutely, economic collapse is unlikely to happen quietly.

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 25 Apr 2020, 19:49

We still don't know whether herd immunity is possible.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11975011

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 25 Apr 2020, 19:59

clv101 wrote:
Vortex2 wrote: (Containment etc will NOT reduce the total death count - just modify the timing. Medications / vaccines could however reduce the final count. In fact that is what I assume we are waiting for)
Sure it will, that's the whole point of flattening the curve, not overwhelming the health system. Without containment etc, the number of critical cases peaks beyond the health system's ability to treat and the fatality rate increases. - people who would have survived with treatment, die for lack of treatment.

Hmm, forgot about that aspect.

This means that my earlier 400k estimate ... which should probably be 600k in reality .... could increase to say 800k or more if the NHS implodes due to a second and/or or further waves are too big to handle.

Great.

I hope my estimates are total nonsense and that the current wave will subside in a week or so and then we will be back to almost normal without any further fuss.