EU membership referendum debate thread

Post by **clv101** » 20 Jun 2016, 23:14

I reckon Osborne is toast next week, pretty much whatever happens on Thursday... and he knows it.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Jun 2016, 01:09

raspberry-blower wrote:Car crash radio:

LBC: Osborne admits no plan in case of "Brexit"

This from a Chancellor who hasn't got a forecast right in 6 years.
Shockingly clueless

On the basis that he hasn't got anything right in six years is there any point in him making any plans whatsoever?

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Jun 2016, 01:25

oobers wrote:This articulates my dilemma vis the EU referendum
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8 ... -you-euref

My rational mind tells me we need a European Union every bit as much as it tells me that the European Union we have is a major block to progress and moving rapidly in the wrong direction.

Logically, therefore I am convinced that the only hope is reform – but I can't vote for it. I can vote to stay and pretend to myself that there might be reform I don't for a second believe is coming. Or I could vote to leave and ensure some kind of change – but which might result in something much worse.

I shall make my decision late – and probably dislike myself either way.

If we vote to Remain we have absolutely no chance of any reforms at all. After all if the British people have voted to stay in our European cousins are going to think that we are happy with the place as it is and that our politicians are just out to cause trouble. They will tell them to "sod off" if they subsequently ask for change.

If we vote Leave Cameron or his successor can go to the EU with all the cards and chips in his pocket. He has our net payment, however many millions it might be. He has the "fact" that our exit might cause WW3. He has the more plausible fact that our exit might cause unrest in other EU countries resulting in a breakup of the EU. If he's a half decent negotiator he should be able to extract massive changes in the way the EU is run and then recommend another referendum on us staying in. With the expected closeness of the pole I would have thought he could guarantee us voting to stay in a much better run EU.

Anyone who wants change in the EU should logically vote Out as it's the only way that any change will occur. Staying in and keeping the EU as it is will probably result in its collapse at some stage anyway but our exit could result in a change for the better so the only logical vote is to vote out even if we negotiate ourselves back in at a later date. It would require a seismic upset to get the EU aristocracy, and I use that word as a derogatory term in this case, to move and Brexit might be just that upset. That seismic shift would result in the demise of the current "aristocracy" so our return might be greeted with open arms. We would be the saviour of Europe. Ironic!!

Post by **clv101** » 21 Jun 2016, 07:07

kenneal - lagger wrote:
oobers wrote:This articulates my dilemma vis the EU referendum
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8 ... -you-euref

My rational mind tells me we need a European Union every bit as much as it tells me that the European Union we have is a major block to progress and moving rapidly in the wrong direction.

Logically, therefore I am convinced that the only hope is reform – but I can't vote for it. I can vote to stay and pretend to myself that there might be reform I don't for a second believe is coming. Or I could vote to leave and ensure some kind of change – but which might result in something much worse.

I shall make my decision late – and probably dislike myself either way.
If we vote to Remain we have absolutely no chance of any reforms at all. .

I don't think that's true, and you certainly don't know it to be true. Point is that there's widespread dissatisfaction with many aspects of the EU across the EU. The French are even less happy than we are. It's not the case that the EU is all hunkydory, except of the UK. I think reforms more likely than no change at all.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 21 Jun 2016, 07:52

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one, Chris, and wait and see what happens.

AutomaticEarth · Post by **AutomaticEarth** » 21 Jun 2016, 08:15

I'd say that's a pretty fair assessment Ken. Cameron's already tried to 'reform' the EU, and has gotten nowhere thus far.

With Remain on 53% and Leave on 46%, it looks like the scaremongering has had it's desired effect. That kind of gap will give the Remain camp it needs to claim a legitimate victory.

Even one of Cameron's policy gurus advised that controlling immigration from within the EU is impossible:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 92711.html

Mark · Post by **Mark** » 21 Jun 2016, 14:13

EU referendum: Leave voters twice as likely to disbelieve facts and science:
http://www.eco-business.com/opinion/eu- ... d-science/

Polls find that people who support Britain leaving the European Union disproportionally deny mainstream science. But without a fact-based debate, the referendum could be decided on the wrong grounds, says Sindicatum Sustainable Resources chief executive Assaad Razzouk.

At polling stations on 23 June, about half of the people may vote for Britain to leave the EU. You may well be one of them. What may surprise you, though, is that according to an exclusive ComRes survey, almost half of your fellow Leave voters think the theory of evolution is questionable, while one in five doesn’t believe in man-made climate change.*

That should frighten you because it means that many Leave voters are wilfully choosing to disregard facts. The ComRes survey also shows that Leave voters are 70 per cent more likely than Remain voters (36 per cent vs 21 per cent) to be against windfarms (though I presume they are fine with blowing off mountain tops to mine for coal for example), and 15 per cent more likely to support fracking on British soil. So - to put it bluntly - if you are a climate change denier, sceptical about science and the theory of evolution, against renewable energy and for fracking Britain, you will have plenty of company in the Leave camp. However, if you’re not comfortable in such company, you may want to re-think your position.

Leave voters’ attitude to facts is part of the reason the Leave campaign continues to make emotive statements that aren’t grounded in reality: arbitrary allegations about Europe together with fear mongering tactics on security and immigration designed to draw on people’s visceral fears. One of the highest profile examples came earlier in the month, when Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston loudly quit the Leave campaign because of its false claims that Brexit would free up £350 million a week for the NHS. Sir Andrew Dilnot, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, pointedly described the Leave camp’s claim as “misleading” and one that “undermines trust in official statistics”. The UK statistics watchdog and the Treasury have urged Vote Leave to stop using this preposterous NHS claim which Wollaston branded “simply not true”, but the campaign has so far refused and for what now seems like a very good reason: As shown in the ComRes poll, Leave voters are less likely than Remain voters to be deterred by an appalling lack of fact-checking. The problem with a debate based on facts is, seemingly, that it’s a little bit boring and unengaging. And that may be why the Remain campaign has seemed to stumble in recent weeks. Many of the latest polls show the Leave campaign several percentage points ahead of Remain.

By pounding the table with spurious arguments about unelected Brussels burdening us with regulations, the Leave campaign can avoid discussing facts and instead appeal to hard-wired instincts of English exceptionalism crafted over centuries to buttress the moral fibre of the Empire. In the energy and environment sectors, for those who value a fact-based debate, it should be obvious that Britain’s energy security is strong because it belongs to a large EU bloc - and that cleaner beaches, drinking water and air all resulted from European rules which helped the UK shed its reputation as the “dirty man of Europe”.

Energy and climate change, however, have unfortunately not been major points of debate in the run-up to the referendum. Part of the reason is that the topics require more than Trump-esque shouts for attention, which the Leave campaign has been disproportionately fond of, thus giving undue space to extremists peddling modern versions of the Roman Inquisition attacks on Galileo. Serious topics require careful examination of the facts - and if we’d had such a fact-based debate, it would be clear to most that remaining in the EU is the best choice for Britain’s future and for the climate. After all, as reported by David Smith of the Sunday Times, since Britain joined the European Community in 1973, its GDP is up 62 per cent in real terms compared with 42 per cent for France, 35 per cent for Germany and 15 per cent for Italy. Surely it wasn’t just English exceptionalism at play?

Our European future makes us stronger on climate; stronger on renewable energy; stronger on science and, indeed, stronger on facts. Europe isn’t perfect, but it amplifies Britain’s voice on the global stage and ensures the country continues to prosper in partnership with its neighbours. Rather than leaving it, we should try to influence it more and indeed lead it. The alternative is to sit on the side-lines together with the Rupert Murdoch’s of the world, in un-splendid isolation while practicing deceit in denying climate change and science. If you instead believe that climate change is an existential threat to human civilization; if you believe renewable energy’s time has come; and if you believe in science and facts, get out to vote Remain on 23 June.

* ComRes interviewed a representative sample of British adults by telephone between 29th May and 5th June 2016, from which were drawn 809 adults who intend to vote to leave the EU and 809 adults who intend to vote to remain in the EU. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Jun 2016, 14:22

Just another variant of "vote Leavers" are thick.

The intelligentsia doesn't get it yet.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Jun 2016, 14:39

The left Case For Brexit: Lexit, the movie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq72f81kkM4

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Jun 2016, 17:15

Latest slew of mainstream polls pointing to Leave having caught Remain back up and both are now neck and neck. Which I take to mean Leave is probably in the lead since I believe the MSM polls have been consistently under-reporting the support for Leave.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 21 Jun 2016, 17:34

Even when Rupert Murdoch wants the same thing as you you believe he is secretly working against you.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 21 Jun 2016, 17:51

johnhemming2 wrote:Even when Rupert Murdoch wants the same thing as you you believe he is secretly working against you.

Rupert Murdoch merely wants to back what he thinks is likely to be the winning side Or, if the not winning side, the side that most conforms with his readership. Since his readership is largely white working class, he knows which side his bread is buttered. That is to say, by backing Leave, he wins both ways. If Remain wins, his business is unaffected, but he has the political cache amongst his readers that he backed them. If Leave wins, he still has that political cache and his business is still unaffected.

The establishment in this country is divided between neo-cons wedded to the global corporate capitalist class and an older establishment wing, wedded to an older, more nationalistic order. That is as it may be and, to vote for Remain or Leave is to allow one of those establishment wings to prosper over the other. So, their interests can be effectively ignored. The only thing that matters to the rest of us is the extent to which our democracy, however imperfect that may be, allows us to vote in representatives who can carry our our wishes. For that, Leave is the only option.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 21 Jun 2016, 18:03

Little John wrote: The only thing that matters to the rest of us is the extent to which our democracy, however imperfect that may be, allows us to vote in representatives who can carry our our wishes. For that, Leave is the only option.

There are various options for trade agreements. The basic World Trade agreement which does not allow individual countries to go outside the agreement or the EEA (which follows the EU rules apart from CAP and CFP). In both of those the UK does not have total discretion. The question that needs to be looked at is how a trade agreement should be structured. I think the EU is one of the better structures in the world. (for multi national trade agreements) it factors in environmental questions and the conditions of labour as well as trade.

International agreements inherently require compromise.

Post by **clv101** » 21 Jun 2016, 18:17

Little John wrote:Latest slew of mainstream polls pointing to Leave having caught Remain back up and both are now neck and neck. Which I take to mean Leave is probably in the lead since I believe the MSM polls have been consistently under-reporting the support for Leave.

I don't know what you're reading to come to that conclusion. Here are the latest polls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... referendum

But you must look beyond the headlines (which slightly favour Remain), look at the other questions, especially what the don't knows are most likely to do. A 50/50 result of those sure to vote most likely means a win for Remain for a few percent.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 21 Jun 2016, 18:26

I have just spotted the fact that there is quite a bit of campaigning going on in Australia.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36573622