Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[biffvernon]

But we have to close all the fossil fuel power stations to avoid catastrophic climate change.

[Tarrel]

You might think so, but when you look at the yearly wind graph it's teetering along with an average of less than 2GW. Less than 1 power station. We'll have the whole country covered in the things before they become useful.

Not if they continue to build offshore. It's windier at sea too.

Actually, Heinberg has an interesting view on renewables in "The End of Growth". His view is that "Peak Capital" is more likely to be a barrier to wind development than the NIMBY argument. Since, with a wind turbine, you're effectively buying all the energy up front, one has to look at the return on capital over a long time horizon. Economics, based on a basic human instinct, tends to value returns in the future lower than immediate returns. ("A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"). So when capital is tight, companies think twice before commiting to this type of long term investment.

[biffvernon]

Yes but it's not very long term. With a nuke you get no return for a decade - with wind you start earning a cashflow in months.

[Tarrel]

Yes but it's not very long term. With a nuke you get no return for a decade - with wind you start earning a cashflow in months.

So we can pretty much forget nukes then? Probably never happen, despite positive noises otherwise.

[biffvernon]

You've seen the stuff about EDF and Hinkley C? It'll never happen.

[RenewableCandy]

Finally the gas stores are going in the direction they would ideally have been a month ago... Rough is back above 'zero', and had 307GWh added yesterday, and MRS is being refilled too. Of course, we've been exporting through the interconnector as well!

It'll be a long wait over the summer to see if they can get Rough full in time... As Adam said, if winter 2013/14 starts early, that won't be very helpful! Let's hope the pipelines and LNG keep flowing uninterrupted for the next 6 months...

They Do Say that part of TransCo's conditions as a monopolizt is that gas should reach every house all the time, and that this is backed up by a requirement, should, say, Chateau Renewable be deprived of the Blue Stuff, to compensate us by £300 per day! Can't remember where I heard it, mind.

[adam2]

I very much doubt that compensation of as much as £300 a day is payable in case of failure of the domestic gas supply.

Gas supply is normally very reliable but failures can and do occur, I recall one failure being caused by a burst water main damaging a gas pipe and resulting in water getting into the gas pipes.
If the gas is cut off, then reinstatement is a lengthy business because EVERY home must be checked for unlit pilot lights or other gas escapes.

It is worth noting that in the rare event of the gas being cut off, that the electricity supply is very likely to fail.
The electricity companies allow for a suprisingly small average load per house, typicly 10 amps. Any failure of the gas supply is likely to lead to increased electricity demand that is beyond the capacity of the equipment.

[biffvernon]

They Do Say that part of TransCo's conditions as a monopolizt is that gas should reach every house all the time.

It's never ever reached my house.

[RenewableCandy]

I meant, every house wot it's actually supposed to reach.

Curiously enough I know not one, but two households who, although they could easily avail themselves of mains gas choose not to do so: one uses oil instead and the other (since deceased) used electricity. In both cases the reason is death of a close rel by gas, and iirc, in both cases probably deliberately self-inflicted (tho' never proven). The 2 lots of people don't know each other.

I wonder how common this sort of thing is?

[PS_RalphW]

My wife's grandmother for one.

Head in the oven, days of town gas (carbon monoxide).

[vtsnowedin]

I meant, every house wot it's actually supposed to reach.

Curiously enough I know not one, but two households who, although they could easily avail themselves of mains gas choose not to do so: one uses oil instead and the other (since deceased) used electricity. In both cases the reason is death of a close rel by gas, and iirc, in both cases probably deliberately self-inflicted (tho' never proven). The 2 lots of people don't know each other.

I wonder how common this sort of thing is?

About the same as in the US, 11 to 12 per 100,000 each year. Gas doesn't work anymore as NG isn't poisonous so ladies overdose on their meds while the men hang themselves. In the US many use one of their guns to end it quick. Quite messy for those you leave behind.

[RenewableCandy]

That bodes well: I can tie a Hangman's Noose but am completely clueless what the LD50 of aspirin is. Or iron, come to that. I always was a bit of a "geezer bird"

[vtsnowedin]

I can’t imagine someone with your personality getting depressed enough to consider it but chronic debilitating illness can happen to anyone. When your future holds only pain and adult sized diapers many a sane person will start looking for a full bottle of Percocet’s.

[RenewableCandy]

There's a case being fought in the UK even as I squeak: a completely-paralysed chap with a full complement of Marbles who just wants someone to do him the last favour. But it's still illegal here for religious reasons. That's very lucrative at the mo for people who run olde folks' homes. One chain of which went bust recently as it turned out all their premises were owned by a bank. Yes, we're back to bankers!

[adam2]

Not looking good for next winter.
Storage filling at about 10 or 11% a month and now about 22% full.
So to refill the remaining 78% of the storage at this rate will take at least 7 months and maybe nearly 8 months.

I think that winter will be back by then.
There should be more wind power on line by then which will save some gas, but also there will be less coal burning which will tend to increase gas demand.
Next winter will probably be milder but it seems unwise to count on this.