New coronavirus in/from China

BritDownUnder · Post by **BritDownUnder** » 07 Feb 2020, 05:27

I have been working in New Zealand for the past month and I heard on the news that some logging workers are being laid off due to lack of demand from China. Then again there were still trucks full of logs going down the road so someone must still be buying the stuff.

Perhaps someone else will start making stuff that China is currently doing.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Feb 2020, 07:56

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51409800

Another 41 people on a cruise ship off the coast of Japan have tested positive for the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases on board to 61.

61 positives out of 171 tests. Over 3000 people still not tested.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Feb 2020, 08:29

UndercoverElephant wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51409800

Another 41 people on a cruise ship off the coast of Japan have tested positive for the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases on board to 61.
61 positives out of 171 tests. Over 3000 people still not tested.

Tracking the repatriation flights gives a snapshot of the spread in the Wuhan region. Likely 1%.

The cruise ship is in effect a clinical trial on transmissabilty - R0 under optimum conditions. Which may still be happening via food distribution, air conditioning or the sewage system. It may also indicate case fatality rates among an older population.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Feb 2020, 10:06

3 new cases in Singapore with no known links to China or previous cases anywhere. This is quite important. Suggests it will not be contained outside of China.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... links-more

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Feb 2020, 11:01

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/02 ... 2019-ncov/

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Feb 2020, 11:04

UndercoverElephant wrote:3 new cases in Singapore with no known links to China or previous cases anywhere. This is quite important. Suggests it will not be contained outside of China.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... links-more

Agreed. About the same population density there as the Yokohama cruise ship! Those 100 international delegates who were gathered at the Hyatt are a particular concern.

I've been down to the railway station
I've been over to the taxi stand
I've been standing in the lobby of the Hyatt Hotel
But I've never seen a helpin' hand
I'm lookin' for someone
Not out to get me
I'm keepin' my guard up
Expectin' no mercy

(Tubes)

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Feb 2020, 12:16

Another suspect cruise ship.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/06/cruise-sh ... ronavirus/

Post by **clv101** » 07 Feb 2020, 13:24

What are the wider ramifications? Both high profile, symbolic, and more mundane but high impact.

Olympics, Toyko 2020, less than six months away. Cancelled? Presumably a decision would need to be taken several months before hand.

Car tyres? Must mostly come from China on a pretty tight schedule with very low flexibility in supply.

Laptops, phones, general IT. I remember huge price impact to memory band hard discs in past after earthquake damage.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Feb 2020, 14:00

Good call on the tyres. Just ordered fresh treads and an unfitted spare.

And was already thinking about getting a spare Chromebook while they are cheap and available.

Post by **adam2** » 07 Feb 2020, 14:47

clv101 wrote:What are the wider ramifications? Both high profile, symbolic, and more mundane but high impact.

Olympics, Toyko 2020, less than six months away. Cancelled? Presumably a decision would need to be taken several months before hand.

Car tyres? Must mostly come from China on a pretty tight schedule with very low flexibility in supply.

Laptops, phones, general IT. I remember huge price impact to memory band hard discs in past after earthquake damage.

Most interesting that you mention IT equipment.
BEFORE reading your post, I had just purchased a spare laptop PC, used, from a trustworthy local supplier.
Whilst the supply of used laptops would not be directly affected by the coronavirus, any scarcity of new units might drive up the demand for and therefore the price of used equipment.
As laptops are high value items, stocks are probably minimal.

Good point about tyres, I do not drive, but those who do drive should consider spares. Or possibly a spare vehicle complete with good tyres.
Whilst a complete spare vehicle sounds like overkill, remember that possession of such protects against failure of other major components that might fail and be in short supply.
A spare vehicle with a full petrol tank also evades the rules on petrol storage. No more than 30 liters of petrol may be stored without a licence. Petrol in vehicle fuel tanks is not counted.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 07 Feb 2020, 15:20

Little John wrote:f***ing great. Son number two is currently on contract in Brighton.

So, to summarise:

Wife - lives and works in York during the week - Location of corona virus infection

Son number 1 - works and lives in Newcastle - location of Corona virus patient/s

Son number 2 - currently lives and works in Brighton and is staying at travelodge for duration of his stay at Brighton, which is for another three weeks - site of Corona virus infection/s

You couldn't make this shit up.

Perhaps it's your family which is doing the spreading and you are the carrier, LJ!!

Post by **clv101** » 07 Feb 2020, 18:16

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044
"Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirusâ€“Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China"

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Feb 2020, 19:14

clv101 wrote: Olympics, Toyko 2020, less than six months away. Cancelled? Presumably a decision would need to be taken several months before hand.

If there's a pandemic? Surely it has to be cancelled, yes. We already know there's no way of detecting infectious cases.

On the other hand, if you're going to cancel that, then you have to cancel all sorts of other things. My first thought when I read you post was what about the Chinese Super League? Answer:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51306776

China has delayed the start of its domestic football season because of the escalation of the coronavirus, which has claimed at least 170 lives.

The Super League, which features ex-Premier League players including Yaya Toure, Marouane Fellaini, Oscar, Marko Arnautovic and Salomon Rondon, was due to run from 22 February to 31 October.

A new starting date for the season has not yet been announced.

Oher sporting events in China have also been affected by the crisis.

The men's alpine skiing World Cup races in China, scheduled for 15 and 16 February in Yanqing, have been cancelled.

The 2020 World Athletics Indoor Championships, due to be held from 13-15 March in Nanjing, have been pushed back 12 months after World Athletics sought advice from the World Health Organisation.

Formula 1 says it is "monitoring" the effects of the outbreak in China in the context of the country's Grand Prix in Shanghai from 17-19 April.

This is Big Money we are talking about here. We already know there's a massive outbreak in China, so having "delayed" the start of their football season, when do they actually start playing? You can't do this. You can't just "delay" an entire football season, because there's already as many fixtures as the players can physically play. You can't cram an entire season's games into half the normal time a season takes. But if you cancel those events entirely, you also lose all the revenue from ticket sales and TV coverage, and that's what pays the enormous wages of the players. Just imagine if there's an outbreak in the UK. Are the FA going cancel the football season? Are the government going to pass a law forcing them to do so? Who will foot the gargantuan bill?

Actually I am guessing the players just wouldn't get paid. They may even have "Force Majeure" clauses in their contracts.

There is no precedent to compare this to, in terms of ramifications. And this is just the start. If something like what appears to be the worst-case-scenario now actually plays out, then we're talking about an event that is as economically disruptive as a major world war. End of the world as we currently know it, for sure.

Mean Mr Mustard II · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard II** » 07 Feb 2020, 19:34

Once this is evident here, sporting and cultural events will fail through lack of sufficient attendance. Unless the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 is enforced and COBRA proactively direct preventative measures first. Banning non-essential gatherings is an obvious early one.

Cases having to show first will mean it'll be a day too late, every time.

Post by **clv101** » 07 Feb 2020, 19:56

Within a fortnight "Force Majeure" is going to outnumber "Brexit" in our newspapers.

Yes, economically speaking, we're moving into totally uncharted waters.