New coronavirus in/from China

[PS_RalphW]

1000 people but only 400 households, and only 50% finished, all from a small geographic region. 15% of 200 is only 30 households, so a very small non random sample.

[fuzzy]

I am not going to trawl to find what spin the BBC have, but if Porton down results are in, where are they? There is plenty of 'widespread' evidence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3hfvFmrwU

[Vortex2]

1000 people but only 400 households, and only 50% finished, all from a small geographic region. 15% of 200 is only 30 households, so a very small non random sample.

.. and as Ferguson noted, it was a hot-spot so the figures will be higher than elsewhere.

[Vortex2]

I am not going to trawl to find what spin the BBC have, but if Porton down results are in, where are they? There is plenty of 'widespread' evidence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3hfvFmrwU

Porton Down will not release the results - but is is said that they show NO mass infection rate.

The German results at 15% will be the absolute maximum .. even if you trust that report.

[fuzzy]

So your evidence that there is 7 times as many antibody people as live infected, on an illness that is allegedly expanding, shows that there isn't a prior infection history?

[Vortex2]

I am not going to trawl to find what spin the BBC have, but if Porton down results are in, where are they? There is plenty of 'widespread' evidence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3hfvFmrwU

Interesting video ... but I fail to see the connection.

[Vortex2]

So your evidence that there is 7 times as many antibody people as live infected, on an illness that is allegedly expanding, shows that there isn't a prior infection history?

I have no personal evidence.

However the data out there has generally suggested that between 6 and 20 people are infected for every reported case.

I have been using a figure of 8.3 based a crude heuristic I calculated weeks ago.

On a different tack, the 'Oxford model' suggests that a huge percentage of the population might already be quietly infected.

However recent antibody sampling has shown the maximum infection rate to be 15% but more likely 2.7% in the UK.

In other words, we have NO silent epidemic.

Which means that we are far from 'herd immunity'.

It also means that we have had a huge amount of grief with just a small proportion of the population infected ... so we have a shitty long road ahead of us as the virus plods through the remaining 97% of the population.

We need to pray for a very prompt discovery of a medication or vaccine - otherwise we will need to be in a 2 months lockdown, 1 month freedom, lots of deaths cycle for ever.

[boisdevie]

So your evidence that there is 7 times as many antibody people as live infected, on an illness that is allegedly expanding, shows that there isn't a prior infection history?

I have no personal evidence.

However the data out there has generally suggested that between 6 and 20 people are infected for every reported case.

I have been using a figure of 8.3 based a crude heuristic I calculated weeks ago.

On a different tack, the 'Oxford model' suggests that a huge percentage of the population might already be quietly infected.

However recent antibody sampling has shown the maximum infection rate to be 15% but more likely 2.7% in the UK.

In other words, we have NO silent epidemic.

Which means that we are far from 'herd immunity'.

It also means that we have had a huge amount of grief with just a small proportion of the population infected ... so we have a shitty long road ahead of us as the virus plods through the remaining 97% of the population.

We need to pray for a very prompt discovery of a medication or vaccine - otherwise we will need to be in a 2 months lockdown, 1 month freedom, lots of deaths cycle for ever.

OR, lockdown for the most vulnerable and support them whilst they wait for a vaccine and let everyone else get the virus and most will survive. I figure I'm going to get the virus at some point and won't need medical intervention so why keep in lockdown? Provided I don't infect anyone else of course.

[boisdevie]

Meths 70%

Water 30%

Kitchen spritzer bottle

simple

With ice and a slice of lemon?

[Little John]

The WHO guide to local hand sanitiser production if anyone wants to have a go at making it for friends and family.

https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_ ... uction.pdf

Yes, I have already made a quantity according to that formulation, or a closely similar one. Supplied to various neighbours and friends.
Isopropyl alcohol is now almost unobtainable, fortunately I had some.
Ethanol fuel has more than doubled in price, but is still readily available.

Meths 7 parts
Water 3 parts

Kitchen spritzer bottle

Simple

[Little John]

Meths 70%

Water 30%

Kitchen spritzer bottle

simple

With ice and a slice of lemon?

[PS_RalphW]

The problem is the rate of spread. Assuming 0.5% ifr and 80% infected for herd immunity that is 60m x 0.8 / 200 = 240,000 dead and as many again needing weeks in ICU to survive. We currently have 10,000 ventilators and medics who are overwhelmed with work already. If we went herd immunity in a month we may protect half the vulnerable population but the NHS would still be in meltdown, and upto 20% of the UK work force would be sick at the same time. Critical infrastructure would be in danger. Without an NHS as many people again would die from other causes.

As it is care homes are making cruise ships look like clean rooms. Hundreds, possibly thousands have died but not in the official stats yet.

We do not have problem. We have a dilemma. Lockdown until economy collapses, or let it rip and watch the economy implode

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

https://www.cambstimes.co.uk/news/cambr ... -1-6603151

They will need a working LEGAL definition of 'non-essential' first. Elsewhere, been discussing the hypothetical case of being found by Plod in possession of a garden gnome and loaf of bread.

'Under my proposed formula, the garden gnome is likely to exceed 75% of the cost of a loaf of bread, unless one of those ridiculous artisinal luxury ones itself. So that would be infested court then jail. It would have to be vehicular/bicycle/bags about the person goods inspection, not trolleys, as I don't know of any premises selling gnomes and bread. In which case, all goods in transit by whatever means would have to be accompanied by a receipt for same, in order to ascertain the individual values for the determination of whether, and if so, the severity of, the offence of Carriage of Indulgences (2020 Emergency Regs (as renewed Aug 2026) ) has been committed. '

If there is much more of this idiocy, then the quaint notion of policing by consent, and their proper function of dealing with genuine cases involving crowds and parties is gone, in favour of arbitrary making up law themselves on the fly.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

Meths 70%

Water 30%

Kitchen spritzer bottle

simple

With ice and a slice of lemon?

And now experienced alky tramps find themselves deemed as essential workers.

[UndercoverElephant]

True story:

My sister in law is currently working for a local council, and has been repurposed working in council-run care homes. They are rationed for PPE - can only use 2 sets a day, instead of one per patient. They cannot social distance - they have touch people, and be in the common room with lots of elderly people all sitting closer together than 2m.

She has developed all the symptoms Covid-19 in the past 36 hours. She's worked in 4 different care homes in the last week. In and out, many different patients. Oh...and 2 days ago, 4 residents died in one of the care homes. The real shocker? Nobody informed her about the deaths. She found out when it was reported the local news.

TL;DR our own government, having failed to provide sufficient PPE or testing, is now sending people into care homes who have worked in other care homes where people have already died, without notifying them that they've been exposed to the virus.