New coronavirus in/from China

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 10 Apr 2020, 08:55

PS_RalphW wrote:Radio 4 reports that a high spec serology background testing program at Porton down that has been running since January has conclusively disproved the Oxford model. Background levels of infection remain very low.

Google can't find this ... do you have a link etc?

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 10 Apr 2020, 09:01

good to see neighbours shopping those with snouts in the trough. Note that the telegraph often has a different link title to the story itself, such as this one:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... rd-journey

It is perhaps an indication they are going to change it later. Like the historic Telegraph article 'why we must give up flying' by Nick Crane. This many years later became 'why we must fly less'!

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 10 Apr 2020, 09:25

The WHO guide to local hand sanitiser production if anyone wants to have a go at making it for friends and family.

https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_ ... uction.pdf

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 10 Apr 2020, 09:29

Vortex2 wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Radio 4 reports that a high spec serology background testing program at Porton down that has been running since January has conclusively disproved the Oxford model. Background levels of infection remain very low.
Google can't find this ... do you have a link etc?

Found it at 40:00 in the Today Programme catchup.

UPDATE: In the same program at around 1:16:00 Prof Neil Ferguson says that there is NO mass secret horde of infected ... the German 15% report he says will be the maximum.

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 10 Apr 2020, 09:56

fuzzy wrote:good to see neighbours shopping those with snouts in the trough.

Is it ? Really ?

That worries me.

EDIT// Not because I have anything to hide - because that's how communities start to break down.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:03

Sadly the failure of the 'Oxford model' means that we have a lot of grief ahead.

We have had all the current troubles with just a tiny fraction of the population being infected.

Can we REALLY survive multiple waves of this nonsense?

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:08

There have always been only two choices:

1) let it rip and get it over and done with. Hundreds of thousands will die, the economy will take a massive hit but would, in principle, bounce back. However, there is the little issue of of the high probability of revolutions sweeping the world as a consequence of a mountain of corpses.

2) Pulsed lock downs and releases stretching over many months if not a year or two. Fewer people will die. But, the economy would quite possibly be utterly destroyed in the process leading to a re-run of the 1930s with bells on. In turn, leading to the little issue of a high probability of revolutions sweeping the world as a consequence of populations with empty bellies.

Choices choices.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:24

Catweazle wrote:
fuzzy wrote:good to see neighbours shopping those with snouts in the trough.
Is it ? Really ?

That worries me.

EDIT// Not because I have anything to hide - because that's how communities start to break down.

Us villeins need to stick together.
I was referring to the Westminster/Herefordshire/Newark property owning, tax deducting, and extra Â£10k expensed, man in touch with his commonfolk.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:26

Little John wrote:There have always been only two choices:

1) let it rip and get it over and done with. Hundreds of thousands will die, the economy will take a massive hit but would, in principle, bounce back. However, there is the little issue of of the high probability of revolutions sweeping the world as a consequence of a mountain of corpses.

2) Pulsed lock downs and releases stretching over many months if not a year or two. Fewer people will die. But, the economy would quite possibly be utterly destroyed in the process leading to a re-run of the 1930s with bells on. In turn, leading to the little issue of a high probability of revolutions sweeping the world as a consequence of populations with empty bellies.

Choices choices.

Our main hope is the very prompt availability of a medication to block/reduce the fatal pneumonia phase ... although the bug can wreck the body anyway : damaged lymph nodes, wrecked spleen, damaged kidneys, damaged lungs.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:31

And, of course, our dear leaders are never ones to waste a crisis. A massive bust was imminent anyway. The peasants have been especially revolting over the last few years. Then this virus comes along and gives our ruling classes all the excuse they need to bring in draconian anti libertarian laws.

As I said, never ones to waste a crisis......

Just watch how many of these new laws remain on statute after this virus has long gone

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:31

Reports for Q1 indicate a massive slump was already underway by February. Then a handy wee bug pops out of a bats ringer in some far flung corner of the world.

Just saying.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 10 Apr 2020, 10:35

Vortex2 wrote:Sadly the failure of the 'Oxford model' means that we have a lot of grief ahead.

We have had all the current troubles with just a tiny fraction of the population being infected.

Can we REALLY survive multiple waves of this nonsense?

Yes most of us will survive and each wave will be less severe and life will go on.
Even if this plague managed to reduce the worlds population by five percent it will have mostly just shortened average life expectancy by a couple of years and the bean counters would have to recalculate their actuary tables.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 10 Apr 2020, 11:00

USA day to day deaths are flat for two days at 1890/day.
Could be worse.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 10 Apr 2020, 11:24

Daily Express - Experts in Germany believe Europe could be close to herd immunity in shock new study

The study, involving scientists from the University of Bonn, tested 1,000 people from 400 households in Gangelt for antibodies.

After around half of the tests, the initial results showed two percent of inhabitants were currently infected, while 14 percent had antibodies to the virus.

This means that up to 15 per cent of the town's inhabitants could have immunity, with previous estimates putting the figure at five per cent.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... ela-merkel

So 15% means 'herd immunity' ... yeah, right.

UPDATE: That German report is not accepted by everyone.

A critique (in German) is here: https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2 ... ettansicht

MORE: Prof Neil Ferguson says that there is NO hidden epidemic of infected ... the German 15% report he says will be the maximum.

Post by **adam2** » 10 Apr 2020, 11:59

stumuz1 wrote:The WHO guide to local hand sanitiser production if anyone wants to have a go at making it for friends and family.

https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_ ... uction.pdf

Yes, I have already made a quantity according to that formulation, or a closely similar one. Supplied to various neighbours and friends.
Isopropyl alcohol is now almost unobtainable, fortunately I had some.
Ethanol fuel has more than doubled in price, but is still readily available.