Ukraine Watch...

[BritDownUnder]

BAe Systems share price is up which makes me happy. It would be interesting to know if Europe has a similar satellite capability to the US. One would expect France to have something similar. Perhaps the greatest problem for Ukraine would be the loss of Starlink.

I wonder if with the Dow falling, the pre-tariffs spending over and the prospect of fewer US arms sales the mood in Washington might change in a few months.

I think the UK, so long as it has the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons, should offer to sell nukes to 'responsible' NATO members like Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands for, let's say one billion pounds each, no questions asked. Might help the UK Trade deficit.
I still think Australia should also have up to one thousand tactical nukes for coastal defence and that should help the UK get out of its financial woes a little.

[Mark]

I've been against nuclear proliferation all my life....
But I do wonder how different this current situation would be if Ukraine had kept their nukes in '94.
The assumption at the time was that they'd point them 'west', but in fact they'd now be pointing directly at Putin...

OK, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark & Netherlands are 'responsible' NATO members today...
But who says they'll still be 'responsible' NATO members in 5-10-50-100 years ?
The US was a 'responsible' NATO member until 2 months ago....

[UndercoverElephant]

NATO now only exists in principle. By its nature, NATO was only viable if everybody believed in it. If nobody believes in it then it is dead.

[clv101]

Ukraine was in no position to maintain ~1,700 nukes in '94, if they had kept them, it was thought probably at least some would be sold/stolen.

The containment of Soviet nukes during the dissolution of the USSR was one of the major success stories of the post WWII era.

[clv101]

NATO now only exists in principle. By its nature, NATO was only viable if everybody believed in it. If nobody believes in it then it is dead.

I've never thought Article 5 was worth the paper it's written on, I'm with de Gaulle, he never thought any nation would risk its existence in defence of another. It was never realistic to think the US would nuke the USSR if they attacked Europe. France was right to develop and maintain nuclear (and other military) independence.

[clv101]

I think the UK, so long as it has the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons, should offer to sell nukes to 'responsible' NATO members like Germany, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands for, let's say one billion pounds each, no questions asked. Might help the UK Trade deficit.
I still think Australia should also have up to one thousand tactical nukes for coastal defence and that should help the UK get out of its financial woes a little.

Has any country ever sold a nuclear weapon? They are the ultimate indigenous technology. There was some early information exchange between the UK and US and UK warhead designs do have a lot in common with the US W76 warhead but I don't think any country has ever sold an actual physics package, wonder why?

The UK and US are meant to be collaborating on the W93 replacement project with the US supplying some non-nuclear components to be mated with UK manufactured nuclear bits... IF this collaboration collapses, it leaves UK with aging W76 warheads which we should be able to maintain indefinitely, but they do rely on the Trident missile which we probably can't maintain independently. Building a nuclear gravity bomb is simple enough though... but world rely on the US provided F35 to reliably deliver it! D'oh.

[Mark]

I'm no military expert, but from reading up it looks like we're totally intertwined with the US on every level, so it would take decades to unpick...

British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles are useless in Ukraine now President Trump has blocked US intelligence from being sharing with allies
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... llies.html

We just have to do what we can, but also cross our fingers, hold tight and hope that the political tide turns again in the US....
Goodness knows where we'll be in 4yrs time....

The Democrats need to get themselves heard above all the noise from Trump and quickly solidify behind a good young candidate

[clv101]

The Democrats need to get themselves heard above all the noise from Trump and quickly solidify behind a good young candidate

That's going to be increasingly hard, I watched his address to congress yesterday. It was weird to see half the room jumping up and clapping every 90 seconds while the other half just sat there stony faced. It was also weird to see him tell outright lies without *any* comeback. The best chance any Trump opposition has is if the wheels fall off the economy. What happens if there's a 1929 magnitude market crash and unemployment? Can't see MAGA surviving that?

[Mark]

It's all very reminiscent of Hitler in the 1930s....
Will they even have another election in 4yrs time ?

A worldwide boycott of US goods might help collapse their economy....
But then who benefits from that - most likely China ?
What a massive mess.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's all very reminiscent of Hitler in the 1930s....
Will they even have another election in 4yrs time ?

I am struggling to imagine Trump lasting 4 years.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2017v5ngxpo

About 20 countries are interested in joining a "coalition of the willing" to help Ukraine, according to UK officials.

It is not thought every one of the countries, which are largely from Europe and the Commonwealth, would necessarily send troops but some could provide other support.

The plan, spearheaded by the UK and France, was set out by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at this weekend's summit of 18 European and Canadian leaders, and would work to uphold any ceasefire in Russia's war on Ukraine.

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said such a move "can't be allowed" because it would amount to the "direct, official and unveiled involvement of Nato members in the war against Russia".

So we now have a situation where the US is actually helping Russia (by withholding intelligence in order to extort Ukraine for minerals), while Europe is edging towards direct military involvement to prevent Russia from taking the whole of Ukraine.

This looks bad for pretty much everybody. I don't see any likely winners here. Trump isn't going to get any of the deals he wants, Putin isn't going to get a walkover in Ukraine, and Europe and the rest of the West are now preparing for war.

[clv101]

Combined European air power is significant, and the Ukrainian army is probably the best army on the continent today. If Europe were willing to fully engage, with hundreds of sorties per day, in support of the Ukrainian army, Russian forces could be pushed back.

Are we building up to something like that? How would Russia respond? How would the US respond?

[UndercoverElephant]

Are we building up to something like that?

I cannot see where else it can go.

How would Russia respond?

With a lot of anger and threats, but not with nuclear weapons.

How would the US respond?

I have absolutely no idea, and I suspect nobody else does either, including Trump himself.

[Mark]

Agree - it's looking that it might go that way....

If Russia gets pushed back, there's the constant danger it might go nuclear ?
Russia has 5,580 nuclear warheads as of 2024, the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world.
France has just short of 300 nuclear warheads, which can be fired from France-based aircraft or from submarines.
The UK has about 250.

How would the US respond - who knows ??
Worst case scenario is that they'd side with Russia - how bizarre would that be....

[Ralphw2]

As has been mentioned many times, the UK military is deeply integrated with the US military. I do not know how much we could contribute to a war if Trump did not want us to. I suspect almost nothing.

That said, the US military is run by human beings, and as yet only the very top is run by Trump's minions. The US is quite used to covert operations and not all of these are reported all the way up the chain of command.