Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

So, the Welsh bye-election shows that the Tories, if they want to win in a GE, must form a pact with the Brexit Party for either party to gain seats In this one just gone, they would have easily won if they had combined their votes and the seat could have gone to one or the other.

That won't work, as I have repeatedly explained in this thread. The only way to unite the no deal vote is for the tory party to not stand in any seats and let the brexit party clean up all the no deal votes. And the tories won't do that - instead they want some sort of electoral pact which involves the brexit party not standing in all the seats they want to win, while the tories stand down in seats the they have no hope of winning. And the problem is that this simply doesn't work for the brexit party, because they'll have to give up all of their best target seats and will suffer a general penalty for committing to prop up a tory government. There's no way to fix this. There's no way to do a pact between the tories and brexit party which avoids splitting the no deal vote, because a significant proportion of people who want no deal will not vote in any way that helps the tories.

That is why I have been predicting that Corbyn will end up as prime minister, even on a historically very small vote share. Johnson's strategy is losing him as many votes to the libdems as he's gaining from the brexit party, and that won't deliver him a GE victory.

[Little John]

You don't live up north and are repeatedly basing your assumptions on what you know.

In the north, things have gone so far now, people would get into bed with the Devil if it gets Brexit

You might also be advised to look at the numbers a bit more closely:

The Welsh bye election could not have been called in more difficult circumstances for the Tories - both in broad political terms as well as in terms of the circumstances surrounding the specific Tory MP. And yet, despite having lost it, the Conservatives did far better than many expected and it took a Remain coalition between 3 parties for the Lib Dems to win (neither Plaid Cymru nor the Greens fielded candidates, to try to maximise the Remain vote).

Finally, not least to note is the fact of the biggest failure of the night coming from the Labour party who got just over 5% of the vote. Down over 12% from last time.

But, you think this result allows you to predict that Corbyn is headed for N10?

[UndercoverElephant]

You don't live up north and are repeatedly basing your assumptions on what you know.

No. I am basing it on polling and election results.

In the north, things have gone so far now, people would get into bed with the Devil if it gets Brexit

Not all them will.

Finally, not least to note is the fact of the biggest failure of the night coming from the Labour party who got just over 5% of the vote. Down over 12% from last time.

That just means tactical voting is alive and well. This is a seat where Labour only managed to come third even in 1997. Any Labour voter who doesn't want no deal is bound to vote libdem just to keep the tories out. The same will happen in all tory-libdem marginals where Labour is nowhere in sight. This is another reason why the situation is so hard for the tories now.

[Mark]

You don't live up north and are repeatedly basing your assumptions on what you know.

In the north, things have gone so far now, people would get into bed with the Devil if it gets Brexit

You are making a lot of assumptions yourself there.
You speak as though 'up north' voted 100% leave - it didn't, far from it
Agree that a certain demographic may now wish get into bed with the Devil, as you put it....
These people might form the majority/all of your family/social circles, so you may think it's the only view ?
The truth is that the north is badly split, same as the rest of the UK.

[UndercoverElephant]

Yesterday 3,331 people, 10.5% of a big turnout (for a byelection), voted for the Brexit Party. They must have known it was going to be a race between the tories and libdems, and it is not an irrelevant by-election (as so many of them are), because the situation in parliament is so close. We've had key decisions taken by one vote, and the tories could lose a VonC by one vote, and this byelection was always likely to be close too, so every vote mattered. Who were those people, and why did they vote for Farage?

They must have wanted no deal, but why didn't they vote tory? The only explanations available are that

(1) They are people who could not bring themselves to vote tory, even though they knew that voting for the brexit party risked letting the libdems win. Mainly people who usually vote Labour.

(2) They previously voted UKIP or tory, but they don't trust the tories to deliver brexit. They either don't trust this particular candidate, or they don't trust Johnson.

I can't see how Johnson can win over either group at a general election. Johnson can't go any more towards no deal. If these people won't vote tory in yesterday's situation, they won't at a general election either. And if they don't trust Johnson now, they won't trust him ever.

And without those votes, the tories simply cannot win a general election.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

A useful object lesson of what can go wrong for Johnson

Eurointelligence will publish for another week until our scheduled annual holiday which starts on Monday, 12 August. We are already noticing a drop-off in the volume of European news as governments, central banks and European institutions start their holidays. We will therefore use any arising news gaps next week for some more reflective pieces.

The one country with an ongoing hyper-active political agenda is the UK. Last night’s by-election in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire came up with a predicted result - a victory of the LibDems. 

The result flies in the face of some lazy assumptions that have recently gained ground. We notice in particular that more and more political observers are trying to figure out Johnson’s strategy. The consensus seems to be veering towards the one we dismissed yesterday: that Dominic Cummings, Johnson's de factochief of staff, is trying to cause an accident in parliament in order to force elections. 

How such a strategy can backfire was amply demonstrated last night in Brecon and Radnorshire. If you added the Tory and Brexit party votes together, there would have been a Tory majority. But the 3000 Brexit Party votes in the constituency frustrated the Tory strategy. What happened is the very opposite of the recent nationwide polling trend: the pro-Remain Left united; and the pro-Leave right split. 

This is telling us that we are still at a tipping point, which could swing the game decisively in one direction and then suddenly in another, very much like the weather. Don’t think for a minute that you have figured out the strategy - because you haven’t. And, even if there were a strategy today, it might not be the strategy next month. And if it is still the strategy next month, it is far from clear that it can work.

In general, it is a mistake to extrapolate single constituency polls to a nationwide trend. This by-election was triggered after the sitting Tory MP got caught in an expenses scam, which produced an anti-incumbent swing that might be less strong elsewhere. What appears to have happened in Brecon and Radnorshire is that the LibDems picked up Tory voters on the left, and the Brexit Party picked up Tory voters on the right. There was no Boris effect - in contrast to what national polls suggest. 

We see this election not so much as a pointer of what will happen in a general election, but as a blueprint of what could go wrong. If it goes wrong for Johnson, then we will end up with lots of results like yesterday's. 

We think that the strategy of the Johnson administration is not yet set in stone, but there are a couple of fixed points that have not changed. We see only three election scenarios that might work for Johnson: a Brexit-delivery election before October 31, say on October 17 or 24; a no-deal Brexit with elections either on Brexit day itself the week after; or the sequence of a deal, followed by a then-necessary technical extension, and ultimately elections. 

We remain as doubtful as ever that parliament can take no deal off the table. Those who use that or similar expressions never tell us how. We believe that a government hell-bent on a no-deal Brexit has several avenues open to frustrate an extension request; and we don’t think there are parliamentary majorities in favour of outright revocation.

Johnson had a good start, but he faces the same political realities as his predecessor. The European Research Group said yesterday it would vote against the withdrawal treaty even with the Irish backstop removed. One of its leading members said 60 MPs would vote against a withdrawal agreement under any circumstances. That would be larger than the number of Labour MPs Johnson can hope to pick up. A withdrawal deal strategy would require a broad coalition in the House of Commons, which we don’t see at this point. Johnson could offer a short Brexit extension and a post-Brexit election after the ratification of the deal. A post-Brexit election might suit both leaders. Johnson can claim to have delivered Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn avoids the second referendum issue, and can focus on the issues that interest him. But we don’t think that the Labour Party would let him.

We consider the path in the next month as wide open - wider than the consensus believes. We agree with Ian Leslie’s assessment in the New Statesman that Cummings is a man for the big sweep strategies, not necessarily the details of policy. He wants to defeat both Nigel Farage and the Remainers. The delivery of Brexit is at the top of his agenda. If the government has the technical means to deliver a no-deal, why should it not do it? 

[Mark]

They must have wanted no deal, but why didn't they vote tory? The only explanations available are that

(1) They are people who could not bring themselves to vote tory, even though they knew that voting for the brexit party risked letting the libdems win. Mainly people who usually vote Labour.

(2) They previously voted UKIP or tory, but they don't trust the tories to deliver brexit. They either don't trust this particular candidate, or they don't trust Johnson.

Believe there was another factor in play in this case:

(3) The Tory candidate himself was discredited and lost a lot of votes as a consequence.

The result could have been very different with another Tory candidate. Can't believe that Tory HQ didn't force a change.

[PS_RalphW]

As far as I can see, no deal Brexit is disaster capitalism writ large. In one fell swoop large numbers of the remaining British industry will lose a large part of its main export market, face big increases in import costs and declining domestic demand. The ongoing decline of Sterling is already making Dollar denominated international corporations salivate at the buyout prospects as British interest wilt under the costs and uncertainty.

The British people will find themselves another Philippines with zero rights and death squads roaming the streets.

(OK the last 5 words may be a few years away).

[UndercoverElephant]

. If you added the Tory and Brexit party votes together, there would have been a Tory majority. But the 3000 Brexit Party votes in the constituency frustrated the Tory strategy. What happened is the very opposite of the recent nationwide polling trend: the pro-Remain Left united; and the pro-Leave right split. 

No! That is not what happened. The pro-leave vote split, but the pro-leave right did not. What happened was that the pro-leave right voted tory and the pro-leave left voted for the brexit party.

In general, it is a mistake to extrapolate single constituency polls to a nationwide trend. This by-election was triggered after the sitting Tory MP got caught in an expenses scam, which produced an anti-incumbent swing that might be less strong elsewhere. What appears to have happened in Brecon and Radnorshire is that the LibDems picked up Tory voters on the left, and the Brexit Party picked up Tory voters on the right. There was no Boris effect - in contrast to what national polls suggest. 

This is also wrong. There was indeed a Boris effect. If there had not been, then the brexit party would have got twice as many votes and the result wouldn't even have been close. The Libdems picked up the anti-no-deal tory vote and the brexit party picked up the no-deal labour vote, maybe along with a few tories who don't trust Johnson or didn't like the tory candidate.

We see this election not so much as a pointer of what will happen in a general election, but as a blueprint of what could go wrong. If it goes wrong for Johnson, then we will end up with lots of results like yesterday's. 

Yesterday's result is indicative of what is likely to happen in English tory-libdem marginals. There's at least 20 or 30 of these, and every one that the tories lose means one more seat they have to take off Labour just to stay where they are.

[kenneal - lagger]

..........

Believe there was another factor in play in this case:

(3) The Tory candidate himself was discredited and lost a lot of votes as a consequence.

The result could have been very different with another Tory candidate. Can't believe that Tory HQ didn't force a change.

I couldn't agree more. Choosing the same candidate again was as good as throwing the seat away. They will need to find another candidate for a general election of they will lose even more votes.

[Lord Beria3]

Fully agree.

There was a Boris effect and it wasn't for the idiotic local party re-choosing their disgraced candidate the Tories might have just got in.

I suspect quite a few voters couldn't bring themselves to vote for the crook again and I can hardly blame them.

[kenneal - lagger]

This paper from the CASS Business School shows why, if we stay in Europe, we will be forced into the Euro and completely subsumed into a financial and political union. It is basically because that is the only way that the Euro project can carry on. The requirements of an Optimal Currency Area require this and to form an OCA is the only way that the Eurozone can survive.

[UndercoverElephant]

Clever move by Corbyn today:

https://twitter.com/RFewtrellUK/status/ ... 1956107267

If Johnson tries to go for no deal, Labour will put forward a motion for a referendum between remain vs no deal, and back remain. Undermines both the libdems and the anti-no-deal tories, while allowing them to oppose no deal without betraying their own supporters who want no deal.

[Little John]

https://bywire.news/articles/johnsons-t ... -telegraph

LONDON (Reuters) - Lawmakers will be unable to stop a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 by bringing down Britain's government in a vote of no confidence next month, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's top aide has advised, according to the Sunday Telegraph.

Dominic Cummings, one of architects of the 2016 campaign to leave the European Union, told ministers that Johnson could schedule a general election after the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline if he loses a vote of no confidence in parliament, the newspaper said, citing sources.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://bywire.news/articles/johnsons-t ... -telegraph

LONDON (Reuters) - Lawmakers will be unable to stop a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 by bringing down Britain's government in a vote of no confidence next month, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's top aide has advised, according to the Sunday Telegraph.

Dominic Cummings, one of architects of the 2016 campaign to leave the European Union, told ministers that Johnson could schedule a general election after the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline if he loses a vote of no confidence in parliament, the newspaper said, citing sources.

I'm astonished, firstly that Dominic Cummings could have made such a basic mistake, secondly that journalists didn't notice it, and thirdly that so many people have been sharing this story without noticing either.

This is not how the fixed term parliament act works. If there is a successful VonC, the government does not get to choose when to schedule a general election. It happens automatically if nobody can win a subsequent vote of confidence within two weeks. This has been widely recognised on the relevant subreddits, although it took a few hours for some people to realise.