Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine confirms it has crossed the Dnipro in a new location and is now 4km the other side of it: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67058953

[Default0ptions]

“Ukraine’s counteroffensive in maps: tracking the war with Russia”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukra ... -g9wt8khdk

Do please ‘tap the bar to see’ the infinitesimal gain.

“Ukraine has successfully regained a further 460 square kilometres, an area roughly the size of Edinburgh”

But: “Ukraine is struggling to meet its demand for soldiers.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66542065

“Volunteers aren't enough. The country constantly needs to replace the tens of thousands who've been killed or injured. Many more are just exhausted, after 18 months fighting off Russia's full-scale invasion.
Some men though don't want to fight. Thousands have left the country, sometimes after bribing officials, and others are finding ways of dodging recruitment officers, who in turn have been accused of increasingly heavy-handed tactics.”

Do they sound keen to fight to you?

UE is excused from answering because he can’t be bothered

[Ralphw2]

Satellite images of the airfields hit by five Ukrainian fired Atacm missiles show damage exceeding even Ukrainian claims, with up to 20 helicopters damaged or destroyed, as well as an ammo store and air defence units. If they had had these rockets in any numbers a few months ago, the summer offensive may have been significantly more successful.

These are 30 year old ammunition, and the smaller range version. The chances of the US handing over many more in the near future seems slim, given the new hot spot.

The Russian offensive around Avdiivka continues to have very heavy losses for very marginal gains.

[Default0ptions]

Ralphw2: “The chances of the US handing over many more in the near future seems slim, given the new hot spot.”

You’re right! And that’s just what I’ve been saying.

“US to send Israel thousands of artillery shells [formerly] earmarked for Ukraine . . . Munitions will be rerouted for war against Hamas”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ine-hamas/

Ukraine defunding in action already - and this is just the beginning of the end.

[Default0ptions]

There is no sign whatsoever of either Ukraine or its western backers being prepared to end this war. Russia remains on the back foot.

I can't be bothered to have this discussion. I don't know how you arrive at the conclusions you arrive at, and I don't care. You are perpetually clutching at straws.

I arrive at my conclusions by following the news, commentary and analysis from multiple sources and perspectives. I do realise that quoting The Times could be considered “clutching at straws” - but even they admit that: “Even before Israel was attacked, support for President Zelensky’s nation was flagging.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/worl ... -8wc9llhg0

The Real Elephant in the room is the sudden defunding of Ukraine by ‘the West’.

“The chairman of Nato’s military committee, the Dutch admiral Rob Bauer, recently said that the alliance is approaching “the bottom of the barrel” in hardware available for dispatch to Kyiv.”

“Most serious, of course, is US Republican alienation. Washington has committed more than $60 billion of arms to Ukraine and a matching amount in cash and humanitarian support. But 71 per cent of Republican voters now believe that Congress should refuse further funding, and 59 per cent — according to a CNN/SSRS poll — reckon the US has done enough. Democrats remain more supportive, but even their enthusiasm is waning.”

UE: “no sign whatsoever of either Ukraine or its western backers being prepared to end this war”

Umm - I think I just pointed out, yet again, that there are plenty of signs of exactly that.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ralphw2: “The chances of the US handing over many more in the near future seems slim, given the new hot spot.”

You’re right! And that’s just what I’ve been saying.

“US to send Israel thousands of artillery shells [formerly] earmarked for Ukraine . . . Munitions will be rerouted for war against Hamas”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ine-hamas/

Ukraine defunding in action already - and this is just the beginning of the end.

Just out of interest...

Do you have a theory as to why your views on this war are so wildly out of step with those of everybody else on this forum?

[Default0ptions]

Ralphw2: “The chances of the US handing over many more in the near future seems slim, given the new hot spot.”

You’re right! And that’s just what I’ve been saying.

“US to send Israel thousands of artillery shells [formerly] earmarked for Ukraine . . . Munitions will be rerouted for war against Hamas”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ine-hamas/

Ukraine defunding in action already - and this is just the beginning of the end.

Just out of interest...

Do you have a theory as to why your views on this war are so wildly out of step with those of everybody else on this forum?

Yes. Firstly a consensus view is not necessarily correct just because it’s the consensus view - flat earth, geocentricity, phlogiston etc. Secondly the amazing success of blatant propaganda even in a fairly open minded community such as this.

I think you’re also wrong to think that everybody else on this forum is “wildly out of step” with my views.

I’m pretty sure that continuing Western support for the Ukraine is almost over; and that the conflict will end up with Russia holding most of what it currently holds; and that the tragic loss of life could have been avoided entirely if ‘the West’ had kept to the Minsk 2 agreements

[edited for concision]

[clv101]

I’m pretty sure that continuing Western support for the Ukraine is almost over; and that the conflict will end up with Russia holding most of what it currently holds; and that the tragic loss of life could have been avoided entirely if ‘the West’ had kept to the Minsk 2 agreements

There will be continued Western support, but nowhere near enough for Ukraine to recover the lost territory. I agree that when the shooting (mostly) stops Russia will hold most (possibly more) of what it holds now.

[Default0ptions]

I’m pretty sure that continuing Western support for the Ukraine is almost over; and that the conflict will end up with Russia holding most of what it currently holds; and that the tragic loss of life could have been avoided entirely if ‘the West’ had kept to the Minsk 2 agreements

There will be continued Western support, but nowhere near enough for Ukraine to recover the lost territory. I agree that when the shooting (mostly) stops Russia will hold most (possibly more) of what it holds now.

I agree - and also with your caveats. It’s a mess and we should all be trying harder to seek a stable and lasting solution that realistically addresses the genuine security concerns felt

[UndercoverElephant]

Well, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out. I have no crystal ball, but if I was forced to bet on it, my bet would be that Crimea will be back in Ukrainian hands by the time the shooting stops. I believe it is within the power of the US to ensure that happens, and I think they will do exactly that. What happens in the east is another matter, but Crimea is strategically crucial for both sides. The US wants Crimea under western control, and I think they will get what they want.

[Ralphw2]

The continued Russian offensive to surround Avdivka is causing very large numbers of armoured vehicles to be visibly destroyed on widely available drone footage, with presumably proportionately high Casualties. Ukraine claims to have destroyed hundreds of vehicles and killed over a thousand in just 2 days, the highest Russian casualty rate of the war. Russia has advanced about 200 metres.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine is quietly expanding raiding attacks across the Dnipro river in the south to form infantry bridgeheads that are threatening to take control of small settlements near the river, supported by artillery and drones from the far side of the river. If Russia does not bring in reinforcements, Ukraine may use amphibious armoured vehicles to expand this attack and open a direct southern front. Once Russian forces have been pushed back a few miles, there may be an option to build pontoon crossings of the river.

The boggy ground and autumn mud means that the lack of Ukrainian armour in the bridgeheads is less of a disadvantage at this time

[Default0ptions]

Ukraine is quietly expanding raiding attacks across the Dnipro river in the south to form infantry bridgeheads that are threatening to take control of small settlements near the river, supported by artillery and drones from the far side of the river. If Russia does not bring in reinforcements, Ukraine may use amphibious armoured vehicles to expand this attack and open a direct southern front. Once Russian forces have been pushed back a few miles, there may be an option to build pontoon crossings of the river.

The boggy ground and autumn mud means that the lack of Ukrainian armour in the bridgeheads is less of a disadvantage at this time

Ukraine? It’s been dumped. It’s over. That was it.

[Ralphw2]

The Daily Mail is reporting on rumours that Putin has died, following on rumours that he had a heart attack. Of course, this is not news, just wishful thinking.

[clv101]

He'll die one day, probably in the coming decade. Is that day, this day? Probably not.