Greece Watch...

[adam2]

But they are only people, and people don't matter.

They do matter if they remove the government, either by voting it out, or by violent overthrow.
I think a lot of governments must be feeling rather nervous at present.

[emordnilap]

They do matter if they remove the government, either by voting it out, or by violent overthrow.

They weren't allowed to vote for Italy's current premier Monti (significantly, ex-Goldman Sachs, even more significantly a member of the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group).

They weren't allowed to vote for Papadimos in Greece (significantly a governor of the Bank of Greece, vice-president of the ECB and, more significantly, a member of the Trilateral Commission).

And (some would say 'of course') we can't get to vote for the likes of president of the ECB, Draghi - another Goldman Sachs lackey, with hands in the pies of World Bank, Bank of Italy, Bank of International Settlements, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Asian Development Bank, Financial Stability Board.

And of course even little old Ireland was conned into voting for their current "leaders" - promises before the elections, the opposite after, as usual.

I think a lot of governments must be feeling rather nervous at present.

They should be. But with the force of arms and money on their sides?

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17037267

Eurozone crisis: Greece 'can't take any more cuts'

But eurozone ministers demanded a further 325m euros of cuts and insisted that all major Greek parties promise to enact the cuts regardless of who wins a general election scheduled for April.

So in the year the modern Olympics is held in the cradle of modern democracy, the ancient cradle of both suffers the public desecration of its own modern democracy.

It could backfire though. Lets imagine all the major Greek parties agree to enact the cuts. Perhaps this just drives the voters into the hands of minor parties who haven't made that agreement. The result would be a new Greek parliament made up of independents, the far left and the far right.

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/02 ... tml?ref=uk

Nigel Farage has warned that Greece is on the verge of revolution, amid fears Athens will default on its debts.

Speaking in his characteristically confrontational style, he told MEPs on Tuesday that if he were Greek he would join in the violent protests against the imposition of austerity measures.

"Puppet Papademos is in place, and as Athens caught fire on Sunday night he rather took my breath away - he said violence and destruction have no place in a democratic country," Farage said.

"What democratic country? He's not even a democratically elected prime minister."

And he's right. The EU requires that member nations are democracies, but the EU itself is part of a troika which has invalidated Greek democracy.

[emordnilap]

I found myself agreeing with him at the same time as questioning why he's taken that stance.

[Blue Peter]

It could backfire though. Lets imagine all the major Greek parties agree to enact the cuts. Perhaps this just drives the voters into the hands of minor parties who haven't made that agreement. The result would be a new Greek parliament made up of independents, the far left and the far right.

I wonder about this "getting everyone to sign" malarkey. I would have thought that there might be some room to implement cuts but not actually. For instance, why not sell off your utilities to, say, the Germans, and then enact legislation which makes it very hard to run (e.g. no cutting anyone off until after a 6 year trip through an incomprehensible Greek legal process; punitive fines for less than 100% performance; etc.). I would imagine that a determined people (and a determined government) could do a lot if it wanted,


Peter.

[emordnilap]

It could backfire though. Lets imagine all the major Greek parties agree to enact the cuts. Perhaps this just drives the voters into the hands of minor parties who haven't made that agreement. The result would be a new Greek parliament made up of independents, the far left and the far right.

I wonder about this "getting everyone to sign" malarkey. I would have thought that there might be some room to implement cuts but not actually. For instance, why not sell off your utilities to, say, the Germans, and then enact legislation which makes it very hard to run (e.g. no cutting anyone off until after a 6 year trip through an incomprehensible Greek legal process; punitive fines for less than 100% performance; etc.). I would imagine that a determined people (and a determined government) could do a lot if it wanted,


Peter.

Great idea Peter, I'm all for it. The hard bit is emboldened.

[UndercoverElephant]

'Greece doomed, economy total farce & fiction!'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 6OCIn1QArw

Greek default April at the latest. IMHO...

[UndercoverElephant]

It could backfire though. Lets imagine all the major Greek parties agree to enact the cuts. Perhaps this just drives the voters into the hands of minor parties who haven't made that agreement. The result would be a new Greek parliament made up of independents, the far left and the far right.

I wonder about this "getting everyone to sign" malarkey. I would have thought that there might be some room to implement cuts but not actually. For instance, why not sell off your utilities to, say, the Germans, and then enact legislation which makes it very hard to run (e.g. no cutting anyone off until after a 6 year trip through an incomprehensible Greek legal process; punitive fines for less than 100% performance; etc.). I would imagine that a determined people (and a determined government) could do a lot if it wanted,


Peter.

I don't think anybody believes the cuts are implementable. I have come to the conclusion that this election in Greece is going to be the point where the can can be kicked no further. Greece is going to default, and immediately attention will turn to Portugal and Ireland, which will both also default eventually. There will be a last, desperate attempt to build a wall to stop the contagion from reaching Italy, but by that point it will have already spilled out into the UK and the US.

I can't help wondering what is actually going to happen in Greece after the default. Especially if the communists and greens are in charge, which seems likely at this point.

[kenneal - lagger]

It could backfire though. Lets imagine all the major Greek parties agree to enact the cuts. Perhaps this just drives the voters into the hands of minor parties who haven't made that agreement. The result would be a new Greek parliament made up of independents, the far left and the far right.

I wonder about this "getting everyone to sign" malarkey. I would have thought that there might be some room to implement cuts but not actually. For instance, why not sell off your utilities to, say, the Germans, and then enact legislation which makes it very hard to run (e.g. no cutting anyone off until after a 6 year trip through an incomprehensible Greek legal process; punitive fines for less than 100% performance; etc.). I would imagine that a determined people (and a determined government) could do a lot if it wanted,


Peter.

That's why they are now talking about withholding most of the money until after the election and the new government have signed up.

[Tarrel]

Interesting programme on Radio 4 last Monday, playing out various scenarios for what will actually happen when Greece defaults...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... urogeddon/

[UndercoverElephant]

Interesting programme on Radio 4 last Monday, playing out various scenarios for what will actually happen when Greece defaults...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... urogeddon/

Thanks for posting that. Very interesting, yes.

The key point being that TPTB are most certainly preparing for a Greek default and that we aren't going to hear anything about it until it actually happens.

It's just a guess, but it seems likely to me that Greek pre-election opinion polls could be enough to trigger it. If it looks like the supporters of Greece staying in the euro and enacting more austerity are going to lose, and the hard left is going to win...i.e. if TPTB think everybody else is coming to the conclusion that Greece is going to default and leave the euro, that's when it happens, because if it doesn't then the current "slow run on the banks" will become a fast one.


It's all about psychology. If enough people are convinced that a default is imminent, then it automatically becomes true even if it wasn't true already.

[vtsnowedin]

Interesting programme on Radio 4 last Monday, playing out various scenarios for what will actually happen when Greece defaults...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... urogeddon/

Yes very interesting.
Now let me get this straight.
The austerity programs that the Greeks are against included things like not being able to retire after just twenty years at full pay and having a balanced budget which means getting rid of several thousand government workers.
Instead of these Draconian measures they want to throw the country into chaos and have there money devalued by half or more and stiff any holder of Greek debt from fifty to one hundred percent insuring that all future international transactions will be on a Gold on delivery basis?
Are they really that stupid?

[adam2]

I doubt that the Greeks would have to pay in gold after a default, any hard currency should be acceptable, but that probably wont include new improved Drachmas.

I suspect that a default is inevitable and most ordinary greek people think that this will only affect the wicked rich and the bankers, not themselves.

In fact a default will mean a new currency which is virtually certain to inflate rapidly.
The rising prices will be blamed on speculators, profiteers, Jews, bankers, etc etc. And not of course on printing too much money.

Greek workers will be paid less, and have to work for longer.
Imported goods, including fuel, will have to be paid for in hard currency, at exceedingly unfavourable rates, and will probably be unaffordable for most. Retail filling stations might accept local money, but only at very high prices since they would have to use this local money to buy Dollars or Sterling.

If I lived in Greece, I would be withdrawing Euros from the bank (before they get changed into soon-to-be-worthless drachmas) and buying either useful goods, or hoarding the actual physical Euro banknotes, or changing the money into other currencies.

Some people are already doing this, hence the slow run on the banks, which could rapidly turn into a fast run and banking collapse.
Even a sound (ish) bank cant survive mass withdrawals.

[UndercoverElephant]

Interesting programme on Radio 4 last Monday, playing out various scenarios for what will actually happen when Greece defaults...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... urogeddon/

Yes very interesting.
Now let me get this straight.
The austerity programs that the Greeks are against included things like not being able to retire after just twenty years at full pay and having a balanced budget which means getting rid of several thousand government workers.

That was just the start. It goes way beyond that now.

Instead of these Draconian measures they want to throw the country into chaos and have there money devalued by half or more and stiff any holder of Greek debt from fifty to one hundred percent insuring that all future international transactions will be on a Gold on delivery basis?
Are they really that stupid?

No. You are misrepresenting the situation.

The real issue that nobody - Greeks, Germans or anybody else - still believes that a default is avoidable or that Greece is going to be able to remain in the eurozone long-term. Therefore your scare tactics are entirely impotent. You are accusing them of being stupid for wanting out, but what is the alternative? Staying in the eurozone means remaining as a "zombie country" - the first example of - PERMANENTLY.

Are they really that stupid?

If you are bankrupt then you are bankrupt. What is the point in continuing to accept even more loans, putting you even further into debt? There is none, and it would not be happening if it wasn't for the wider context.

The truth is this: appalling though the consequences of a Greek default and euro-exit would be for Greece, they are insignificant compared to the consequences of that default for the rest of the global economic and monetary system. Greece is the detonator, the rest of the eurozone is the bomb, and the global economic/monetary system is the environment the bomb will go off in. And it will go off. This is a discussion about when, not if.