Current Oil Price

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 22 May 2014, 19:14

Us imports were 0.6Mbpd less than expected last week, a multi decade record low. Stocks are still record high, but most of it is very light, almost condensate and not what US refiners want. Libya, Nigeria, Sudan, Iraq and Iran are all exporting less due to violence or sanctions. US shale oil production is not growing as fast as eia says it is. Californian shale reserves have been written down by 13billion barrels. Peak happens

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Jun 2014, 16:38

Price (Brent) briefly touched $114 , but seems to have settled on $113 in the absence of obviously burning oil fields a la Gulf War One.

The merest hint of an interest rate rise has sent Sterling to a 5 year high at
$1.70 so in the short term pump prices won't be rising round here. Indeed, if rates rise people will be instantly poorer, and local oil demand will fall.

Our exports will be badly hit by Sterling at this price, so I suspect the BoE will have to put up or shut up fairly soon. Hopefully Joe Public first time buyer will be scared out of the market before being forced out.

Post by **adam2** » 14 Jun 2014, 10:34

An industrial dispute in Norway seems likely to reduce Norwegian oil production.
A fairly small cut in production from one of the smaller producers would normaly be of little consequence, but combined with Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq, I expect an increase in prices next week.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 18 Jun 2014, 12:04

Vehicle fuel prices are on the rise again (or 'soaring' according to msm

- just wait).

Has anyone else noticed? What do you think this heralds? Will people get any kind of message this time? I'm not optimistic they will, as in Einstein's definition of insanity.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Jun 2014, 13:32

Nobody out there gets the message beyond our fringe nutter community

Everybody realizes that brutal civil war in Iraq is not good for short term oil supplies and that is driving demand and prices as people top up cars, domestic heating tanks, etc., but the traders who plan more than a month in advance fully expect that this will ease back once the tanks are full and Iraq is either out of the headlines or become so everyday as to become background noise once again.

Don't you know the US is now an oil exporter and is making OPEC history?

I do expect a slowdown in Iraqi production in the coming months, not because of direct damage from the war, but because foreign oil workers are being pulled out en-masse and development work is grinding to a halt, and depletion and rust never sleep. A few pipelines will get bombed too.

I have finally got around to ordering the glass for my secondary glazing.
I still have to upgrade my oil fired boiler (over 25 years old) and add a
wood burner back boiler.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Jun 2014, 17:59

Just passed 115. Near a one year high.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 02 Jul 2014, 14:47

Brent continues to decline as ISIS progress stalls, even as the Iraqi government displays total paralysis as usual.

Back down to $11.50 only $3 above the pre-Iraqi surge. Much stronger exchange rate means UK prices continue to fall.

Longer term the price can only be up, so maybe time re refill the oil tank after all.

Far more important to the people of Iraq, ISIS controls the water supply of both major rivers in the country. They can close the valves on the dams, causing massive shortages downstream, and then open them simultaneously when the headwaters have backed up, causing devastating flooding. Would they do such a thing?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 08 Jul 2014, 14:58

Soon, all your fracking crude are belong to us!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... thinks-so/

The European Union is pressing the United States to lift its longstanding ban on crude oil exports through a sweeping trade and investment deal, according to a secret document from the negotiations.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 09 Jul 2014, 23:34

Tess wrote:Soon, all your fracking crude are belong to us!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/won ... thinks-so/

The European Union is pressing the United States to lift its longstanding ban on crude oil exports through a sweeping trade and investment deal, according to a secret document from the negotiations.

You be paying me all you got.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 Jul 2014, 15:10

Oil is now down below the value when ISIS/L kicked off in Iraq. The Baiji oil refinery is still under siege, with 75 elite troops holed up on the control centre and being starved out. Kurds have taken control of 2 more oil fields and effectively walked out of the iraqi parliament and declared independence. Russia (world No 2 producer after SA) appears to confirm it is at peak production with a 6% fall in production predicted by 2016.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 404741593/

We will be heading into new price territory within 2 years.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 12 Jul 2014, 03:57

PS_RalphW wrote:Oil is now down below the value when ISIS/L kicked off in Iraq. The Baiji oil refinery is still under siege, with 75 elite troops holed up on the control centre and being starved out. Kurds have taken control of 2 more oil fields and effectively walked out of the iraqi parliament and declared independence. Russia (world No 2 producer after SA) appears to confirm it is at peak production with a 6% fall in production predicted by 2016.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 404741593/

We will be heading into new price territory within 2 years.

I don't understand this last drop in price. With the number of rockets being launched at Israel each day and other conflicts staying at a high level of danger I just do not see why the price should ease off at this time.
Enlighten me if you can.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Jul 2014, 07:33

Libyan rebels have lifted their export blockade. Chinese demand eased. Poor economic news, shale production still rising. The 8 dollar Iraq premium hurt short term demand.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Jul 2014, 08:27

vtsnowedin wrote:With the number of rockets being launched at Israel each day...

Eh? This last few days Israel has killed 120+ and counting Palestinians. No Israelis have been killed.

The USA was one of the 16 member nations of the UN Security Council that unanimously passed UN Resolution 242. To its continuing shame the USA has made little effort to ensure that UN Resolution 242 was complied with. Until this piece of International Law is upheld there is little scope for dialogue.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2014, 10:22

The only thing that will ever stop the Israelis is fear of or actual consequences of their actions. "Talks" are utterly pointless.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 12 Jul 2014, 13:05

biffvernon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:With the number of rockets being launched at Israel each day...
Eh? This last few days Israel has killed 120+ and counting Palestinians. No Israelis have been killed.

The USA was one of the 16 member nations of the UN Security Council that unanimously passed UN Resolution 242. To its continuing shame the USA has made little effort to ensure that UN Resolution 242 was complied with. Until this piece of International Law is upheld there is little scope for dialogue.

I was not choosing a side in that never ending conflict. That the Iron dome defense system has prevented Israelis deaths is no fault of the Palestinians who keep firing rockets. The retaliatory airstrikes are just the inevitable response from Israel. If they want their homes and families safe they should stop firing their rockets. Plenty of blame to go around.