General Election June 8

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:16

Exit polls on BBC just now: Cons 314; Lab 266 - Tories falling short of overall majority.

In other news: Ilargi: Those Were the May Days

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:16

30,000 strong exit poll gives a hung parliament. Postal votes may cause inaccuracies but may is definitely toast after this.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:16

Potemkin Villager wrote:She's toast!

Yep. Even if the exit poll is wrong by 30 seats against the tories, she's still toast.

Scottish Independence is also toast.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:32

clv101 wrote:LB3, it really does seem like your personal biases are getting in the way of any rational analysis these days.

Post by **adam2** » 08 Jun 2017, 22:42

I will have more faith in predictions made after we have a few actual results to go on.
Even a handful of actual results can give a useful indication, even in safe seats.

For Example if a given seat is a very safe one for party A, then the announcement that party A have won the seat is not exactly surprising.
What is much more relevant is the size of the majority by which party A have held the seat.
A majority much less or much more than was achieved last time or expected this time is a useful guide as to how well party A will do elsewhere.
Not of course an infallible guide as some local factor might make party A more or less popular locally but have little influence elsewhere.

Post by **clv101** » 08 Jun 2017, 23:10

Newcastle upon Tyne Central result has Labour on 64.9% of the vote... that compares to 55% in 2015, 45.9% in 2010 (same candidate each time) and turnout (67%) was the highest since 1992.

And Sunderland South, Labour up to 60.1%, up from 55.1% and 50.3% recently.

Good results, but maybe not quite as good as the Exit Poll suggests.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 08 Jun 2017, 23:23

UKIP deserters and the revenge of the young seem a strong part of the mix.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Jun 2017, 23:53

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 08 Jun 2017, 23:53

It's very early doors, but exit polls suggest a hung parliament. All of which means the Tories will NOT be able to shaft us over the next five years. Also, though my head accepts a hung parliament, my heart is hoping for a coalition of progressive parties who, in that coalition, can actually form a government and get the Tories out altogether. But, I will settle for a hung parliament.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 09 Jun 2017, 00:13

Apparently Hastings is trending on Twitter for some reason.

NB UE

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 09 Jun 2017, 01:05

Not looking good for the Tories!

If this exit poll is correct (a big question), hats off to you UE!

Early days, the Tories may still get a small minority.

Had a sick feeling about this all day... was very nervous. Looks like that feeling was right.

Thank god I have no money on this result!

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 09 Jun 2017, 01:21

Glad to hear you had no money on it LB.

George Osbum is looking as sick as a dog on the box I am happy to report.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 09 Jun 2017, 01:30

Feeling strangely calm about this result.

Maybe I was always haunted by Greer's prediction that Corbyn would win the general election.

A hung parliament, if that is what is going to happen, is going to be very complex.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 09 Jun 2017, 02:36

Well, we knew May had a awful campaign and the backlash has happened tonight.

It may be the case that the Tories can squeak in, maybe with the DUP and a better then expected performance by Scotland Tories, or maybe not.

May is surely toast now.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 09 Jun 2017, 03:42

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_9CiNkkn4