Current Oil Price

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 30 Nov 2011, 14:24

RalphW wrote:WTI back over $101.

And our ticker's become unsticky again. $101.41 at the mom.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 14 Dec 2011, 17:43

What happened today? After a fortnight around $100 for WTI it dropped $5 today.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 14 Dec 2011, 20:30

OPEC 'raised' their quota to 30Mbpd. Recent OPEC production has been 30.3 Mbpd. But OPEC raised quota so there will be more oil to go round.

(Actually, Libysn production is up, to nearly half their prewar level).

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 27 Dec 2011, 20:52

So, after dropping to the lower nineties for WTI, it's back up above $100 again. Rumblings from the Gulf:

Oil capped its longest rally in more than a year as Iran threatened to block transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and confidence among U.S. consumers beat expectations in December.
Crude settled at the highest level in six weeks after Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency cited Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying the country would bar shipments through the strait if sanctions are imposed on its oil exports. Futures also rose as the Conference Board’s index reached the highest level since April.
“The Iranian threats are getting increasingly bold,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “The threat doesn’t have to be likely to have an impact on the market, because if it were to be carried out it would potentially be huge.”
Oil for February delivery rose $1.66, or 1.7 percent, to $101.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 16. Crude has advanced for six consecutive sessions, the longest rally since a period ended Nov. 8, 2010. Futures have climbed 11 percent this year after increasing 15 percent in 2010.
Brent oil for February settlement gained $1.31, or 1.2 percent, to $109.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European contract’s premium to crude in New York was $7.93 a barrel, the smallest differential based on settlement prices since Jan. 20.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-2 ... rcise.html

the_lyniezian · Post by **the_lyniezian** » 13 Jan 2012, 18:00

And now it's back under $100 again!

($98.66, 1-year forecast $113)

mobbsey · Post by **mobbsey** » 13 Jan 2012, 18:04

the_lyniezian wrote:And now it's back under $100 again!

No it ain't (not in Europe at least)

In fact I'm wondering why we have that box at the foot of each page because it's produced completely spurious data for the last two years or so.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 13 Jan 2012, 18:09

Not spurious - just $10 less than Brent!

mobbsey · Post by **mobbsey** » 13 Jan 2012, 18:28

biffvernon wrote:Not spurious - just $10 less than Brent!

Not the instantaneous price, I mean the 12 month forecast.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 13 Jan 2012, 20:16

Oh yes. Nobody's ever worked out what that's for.

the_lyniezian · Post by **the_lyniezian** » 19 Jan 2012, 00:17

biffvernon wrote:Oh yes. Nobody's ever worked out what that's for.

I was going to do a graph of the one-year forecast vs. the real thing when it rolls round- but couldn't in the end be bothered.

the_lyniezian · Post by **the_lyniezian** » 19 Jan 2012, 00:19

mobbsey wrote:
the_lyniezian wrote:And now it's back under $100 again!
No it ain't (not in Europe at least)

In fact I'm wondering why we have that box at the foot of each page because it's produced completely spurious data for the last two years or so.

Brent crude (in the link) and WTI crude (in the box at the bottom) clearly have diffeent values. Brent, last I checked a while back, was consistently over $100, WTI varied.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 19 Jan 2012, 04:33

The reason has been explained further back in the thread. It's to do with the fact that most of the US oil goes through a terminal at Cushing and the size of the storage at the terminal limits the amount of oil that can go through there. In a nutshell, if Cushing is full people in the US don't buy oil because they can't store it. So the WTI price is usually about 10$ below the Brent or World Price. It's better explained elsewhere if you want to search for it.

Post by **adam2** » 19 Jan 2012, 09:16

kenneal - lagger wrote:The reason has been explained further back in the thread. It's to do with the fact that most of the US oil goes through a terminal at Cushing and the size of the storage at the terminal limits the amount of oil that can go through there. In a nutshell, if Cushing is full people in the US don't buy oil because they can't store it. So the WTI price is usually about 10$ below the Brent or World Price. It's better explained elsewhere if you want to search for it.

Absolutely, though this is fairly recent.
Until about 18 months ago, Brent crude was normally a few dollars lower than West Texas crude.
WTI crude prices used to be regarded as a fairly good indication of world oil prices. Sources that simply quote "the oil price" without stating to what grade of oil at what location they are refering to, tended to use WTI and many still do.
It could reasonably be argued that Brent crude is now a better guide to world oil prices, though WTI is still widely quoted.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Jan 2012, 11:01

The drop in WTI price is related to the Keystone XL pipeline. The US mid-west refineries are getting Canadian tar sands oil at knock down prices because the oil is land-locked, and this is also driving down WTI prices.

Above about $10 difference, it becomes economic to ship the oil out on trains, and at $15 , on road tankers. The current differential is about $10. At it's peak, (which was almost certainly market manipulation by people who wanted the keystone pipeline built - or not ) it was $27.

The US decided against building the pipeline because they get cheap oil as a result, and Canada is losing $Billions. Canada is not happy and will now build a pipeline to the coast to sell to the Chinese, but by then we will be well down the global peak.

Several US East Coast refineries are shutting down because they are not economic at the US petrol prices. They have to import at Brent oil price or higher. Since the US pipeline from the Gulf of Mexico is already maxed out pumping petrol from the Gulf refineries, this will lead to much more expensive petrol in the US East coast and/or spot shortages.

I think the best description of US oil industry is dysfunctional.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 06 Feb 2012, 21:06

Once again Brent is rising and WTI is falling. Brent is $116, a 6 month high, and $19 premium to WTI

This seems a little inconguous. The news is of European economic woes - no resolution on Greek talks, Spain suffering high unemployment, Italy short of natural gas, falling Euro against but better news in the US - more jobs.

I think the reality is that Iran is quietly starving Europe of oil by directing shipments East, and that the US figures are cooked. US demand for petrol is at a 13 year low, and there is no sign of demand picking up.