New coronavirus in/from China

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

I don't use most social media

I avoid it all. Apart from here. I only returned to this one for the daily fix of INTJ resilience planning discussion, with a side order of cynical humour seasoned with Doom and Gloom.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTFYjva ... VChDJ9McQs

Italian ship on lockdown

Either this is all massive overreaction or there is shit they are not telling us about this virus. Either in terms of the death rate or in terms of how f***ed you are left if you don't die from it.

Maybe we aren't being told something, maybe there's just a lot of confusion, fear and panic. It still looks like the fatalities are mostly old or immunocompromised. But it also looks like there's quite a lot of people in serious or critical condition, and it also looks like the recovery time is quite slow. It sounds more like pneumonia than flu, so that isn't surprising. But that means this could end with an enormous amount of people quite seriously ill at the same time, and infectious. If I was the Chinese government, I'd want to avoid that, or at least look like I had done everything possible to avoid it.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

But, that still leaves unaccounted for around 4250 people who have the illness in Hubei and how have not yet died. But, a large portion of whom have had it for some time now. So, what kind of condition does this virus leave you in if you don't actually die?

Judging from the clinical reports / analysis reported on the initial cases, probably in bad shape. About 25% of the admissions have severe complication often with pre-existing conditions, eg old age, diabetes, lung disease. Few or no children infected. But I'd have thought there would be immense pressure to release the other apparent recoveries to free up beds, and for that to be reflected in the stats. Unless they think those are still infectious.

Also the latest declining rate of increase in deaths isn't mirrored by a similar drop in increases in confirmed cases from about a week ago.

Something not adding up - as you said - we need more data.

[vtsnowedin]

The two patients in New Hampshire, USA have tested negative.
https://www.wcax.com/content/news/CDC-N ... 25UNrBVkAc

[woodburner]

Life saving drug? I can guarantee these do not work. All the recipients will die in the end. From a scientist, I am disappointed in your lack of correct use of words. It is expect of the medical industry of course.

Don't be daft, you know exactly what's meant by that term.

Really. There are far more people killed receiving treatment in the US every year than have died from this relatively trivial Chinese virus. Many die die directly as a result of receiving pharmaceutical drugs. Te claims. Are made always using relative risk for the benefits, and absolute risk for the adverse effects. The manufacturers will tout these drugs as being “life saving�, until they get caught out. So I suggest you stop being daft.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/30/asia ... index.html

We'll admit them if they're dying': Chinese health care pushed to breaking point

So the Chinese healthcare system is already at breaking point, and this is probably just the start. This could push the deathrate (whatever it is now) much higher, simply because most people won't get intensive care.

[clv101]

Taiwan too now has their first domestic case. I think it changed gear today. It's not just China and those travelling from China anymore.

So with that on top of Germany and Japan, shouldn't the WHO be declaring a global emergency soon? I thought transmission in multiple countries was the prerequisite for that?

Yes, I expect the Global Public Heath Emergency to be declared within 48 hours now.

Declared:
BBC News - Coronavirus declared global health emergency
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51318246

[woodburner]

No worries, buy a mask Though it probably won’t do you much good..

[Little John]

We now know, of those admitted to hospital, 10% have died. More of those admissions may yet die as well causing that percentage to rise. Though all of the above may be offset by the number of people whose symptoms are mild enough to have not gone to hospital. But, we don't know that last number. It could be very high or it could be low.

That is pretty bad.

[UndercoverElephant]

We now know, of those admitted to hospital, 10% have died. More of those admissions may yet die as well causing that percentage to rise. Though all of the above may be offset by the number of people whose symptoms are mild enough to have not gone to hospital. But, we don't know that last number. It could be very high or it could be low.

That is pretty bad.

We aren't going to know the true death rate for weeks. All we really know is that the virus is highly effective at spreading itself, and that it poses a significant threat to anyone over 50 with an existing health condition.

The key question is still whether it is containable in the western countries, and people are going to be watching Australia very carefully.

[clv101]

The fact that it's highly contagious whilst asymptomatic is the key point. I think we are beyond any chance of effective containment now - it'll be circulating widely in China for many months, many opportunities for escape. There are probably already hundreds of cases outside China - many still asymptomatic.

What are our options? Make no personal efforts, expect to contract and hopefully recover fully? Attempt to avoid infection for months in hope a vaccine becomes available!? Attempt to avoid infection for years in hope it mutates to weaker form or just works through everyone else and leaves the environment?

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41 ... e=youtu.be

30 minute video from somebody in Wuhan who has been trying to find out the truth. You need to turn the subtitles on. Very interesting. Basically he is saying that the health system in Wuhan is completely overwhelmed, so the majority of new cases aren't even getting to the case of being officially diagnosed. People are visiting 4 or 5 hospitals, but they just end up queuing for hours and being sent away, until eventually they just give up.

That still doesn't answer the question of how dangerous the disease itself is, but does explain the draconian reaction from the Chinese government.

[Mean Mr Mustard II]

What are our options? Attempt to avoid infection for months in hope a vaccine becomes available!? Attempt to avoid infection for years in hope it mutates to weaker form or just works through everyone else and leaves the environment?

All of the above. Stockpile essentials, bulk shop rather than frequent top-up.
Avoid crowds and public transport. Avoid pointless or optional meetings. Masks and other precautions in high risk environments eg hospitals, pharmacies. Self-quarantine if it's endemic in your neighbourhood.

[Little John]

that is not sustainable for months on end.

And I am saying that as someone who is male, 56 and smoked 2 packs or more for 40 years (stopped more or less last year and completely for the last few months)

[Little John]

We now know, of those admitted to hospital, 10% have died. More of those admissions may yet die as well causing that percentage to rise. Though all of the above may be offset by the number of people whose symptoms are mild enough to have not gone to hospital. But, we don't know that last number. It could be very high or it could be low.

That is pretty bad.

We aren't going to know the true death rate for weeks. All we really know is that the virus is highly effective at spreading itself, and that it poses a significant threat to anyone over 50 with an existing health condition.

The key question is still whether it is containable in the western countries, and people are going to be watching Australia very carefully.

I would say we are getting a better idea of how dangerous and it seems pretty dangerous. 11% of those already admitted to hospital have died with undoubtedly some more of those admitted who will yet die. Sure enough, there will be some who have not presented to hospital. But, we have literally no idea how many or how few that is or how ill they are. It may be that they are now not presenting at hospital because there is nowhere left to take them