Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

With the front lines in Ukraine once again all but static, it seems it won't be until the spring that we see how successful or otherwise the mobilisation becomes. It has to be said the early evidence is of a disorganised and demoralised drunken rabble and seriously outdated hardware. Without an nco class it is not going to be easy to instill much fighting spirit

[clv101]

With the front lines in Ukraine once again all but static, it seems it won't be until the spring that we see how successful or otherwise the mobilisation becomes. It has to be said the early evidence is of a disorganised and demoralised drunken rabble and seriously outdated hardware. Without an nco class it is not going to be easy to instill much fighting spirit

So what's the strategy? Compared with Feb 2022, Ukraine is in a stronger position now (or Feb 2023). They are better organised, have far more western support - Russia absolutely isn't able to field a stronger, better trained, better equipped force next spring than it did last spring, so how can they expect better results?

Maybe the idea is simply to solidify control of just the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, and Crimea? Fall back to those borders and put so many men there that a Ukrainian offensive to boot them out isn't possible? That would seem like the bare minimum that Putin could pass off as 'success'.

[PS_RalphW]

It is reported that Putin has taken personal control of strategy in this war, much as a certain German chancellor did in WWII. The strategy is to not admit defeat for as long as possible in order to save life, one specific life.

[kenneal - lagger]

Nato forces practice fighting in winter conditions in the high Arctic. The Russians fought in winter conditions in WW2. NATO forces are training the Ukrainians so I can see the Ukrainians fighting in winter this year. They will use all the advantages that they can get and the unwillingness to fight in bad weather that the Russians have already shown is just something else that they can take advantage of. They will want to push the Russians back as far as they can while they have a numerical advantage so fighting over winter will be essential and there is also the possibility of them fighting through the Rasputitsa where they can.

Ukrainian Special Forces lobbing grenades into nice warm Russian fox holes during a cold and frosty night before the rest of the force rumbles through is something I think the Russians should be very wary of.

[PS_RalphW]

Rapid advances as we saw last month require high cross country mobility and that just isn't possible in the winter mud. Advancing on defended positions is always going to be expensive on Casualties, so more emphasis will be placed on artillery and drone strikes. That depends on a steady supply of shells and missiles from the West and spare parts and replacements for hardware that is rapidly reaching its intended operational life through constant use. We have no figures for Ukrainian Casualties, so we do not know relative rates of attrition.

We are hearing more reports of civilian Casualties from Ukrainian shelling. On the plus side, Ukraine seems be having a purple patch shooting down Russian aircraft, combining excellent intelligence with excellent command and coms and high tech western weapons. Russia started the war with vastly more modern aircraft, and Ukraine cannot have many left, so this is the first war where the skies are increasingly dominated by drones.

Many more Russians will die in the coming months, but Putin cares only about holding ground until Germany and Italy freeze and waiver.

[kenneal - lagger]

The mud, the Rasputitsa, only lasts until the big freeze. Once the freeze comes mobility is restored, although it is bloody cold until the thaw restores the mud of the Rasputitsa, which is, in turn followed by the summer dry spell!

[kenneal - lagger]

I'm just watching a program on Operation Barbarossa during WW2 when Stalin blew up the Dnipro dam to stop the German advance on the Ukrainian oil fields. He didn't bother to tell the Ukrainians he was going to blow the dam and over 100,000 were killed in the resultant floods. Just another example of Russian disdain for Ukrainians.

[Vortex2]

Just another example of Russian disdain for Ukrainians.

Err .. who has been shelling civilians in the Donbass for 8 years?

[PS_RalphW]

This is just a thought. The collapse of the Soviet Union came as a great surprise to many Cold War analysts. Strong autocrats who rule through fear and censorship appear strong right up to the point that they are deposed or assassinated. Putin has been tightening his grip for 20 years, maybe we in the West have underestimated how much anger is growing in Russia at his rule, and how support is draining away in the corridors of the Kremlin.

We won’t know until it happens (or not)

[kenneal - lagger]

Just another example of Russian disdain for Ukrainians.

Err .. who has been shelling civilians in the Donbass for 8 years?

Who's word have we got on that then? Russia's? The word of the people who definitely weren't going to invade Ukraine earlier in the year?And where do the Russians station their troops? IN the cities, towns and villages along the front because that is the only cover available in the largely flat open landscape of Ukraine.

Russia has been bombing, shelling and rocketing housing and civilian infrastructure in cities well away from the front in an attempt to demoralise the people of the Ukraine. There is a world of difference between the two sides there. Putin has said on record that Ukraine doesn't deserve to exist and he is doing all he can to en sure that by bombing houses, schools, universities, shopping malls and railway stations all over the country we;ll away from the front lines.

Equating what the Ukrainians are doing with what Putin's Russia has been doing is absolutely disgusting in my estimation and you should be ashamed of yourself for doing so.

[PS_RalphW]

There are reports of high levels of conscription in Chrimea and the “liberated” areas of men who have “accepted” Russian citizenship. When the areas have “voted” to join Russia, all males will be eligible for conscription. Ukrainians will be forced to fight Ukrainians.

[Vortex2]

There are reports of high levels of conscription in Chrimea and the “liberated” areas of men who have “accepted” Russian citizenship.

Pre-conflict Ukraine was the most corrupt country in Europe.

The people haven't changed even if their passport has.

[Vortex2]

Equating what the Ukrainians are doing with what Putin's Russia has been doing is absolutely disgusting in my estimation and you should be ashamed of yourself for doing so.

The politicians on both sides are dreadful. Mini Putin & Big Putin.

Once the war has started, it then becomes a technical issue : IMHO each side should do whatver it can to win.

In WW2 we were the 'goodies' .. and we blew up dams, flattened Hamburg in one night, burned people alive in Dresden and so on.

Perhaps an all out Blitzkrieg by one side or the other could have reduced the TOTAL number of casulaties in this conflict?

As it stands, it's turning into a meat grinder.

[adam2]

I suspect that the Ukrainian defenders will do a lot better in winter combat than will do the Russian invaders.

Firstly they know the country, and secondly they will be better equipped than the invaders. Many deficiencies in russian kit have become clear. Last winter some of the invaders simply froze to death for lack of warm clothing and blankets. I doubt that the russian economy has the capacity to manufacture millions of blankets and sets of long underwear.
The Ukrainian forces have received a lot of kit from Western supporters, not JUST high tech weapons, but also basics like long underwear, blankets, camping stoves, self heating foods. And also white overalls which serve the dual purpose of improvised snow camo and an extra layer against the cold.

I have received a first hand report from a group of Ukrainian civilian defenders and the kit supplied.

High powered, extreme range sniper rifles, made in the UK.
Ammo for same, purchased in Poland.
Warm clothing, supplied by USA government.
Blankets, donated by Holland.
White overalls, donated by UK supplier.
High energy winter ration packs, similar to the basic MRE but with extra chocolate bars and extra jam, from UK.
Shotguns, already to hand but large amount of donated ammo.
Purified beef fat, invaluable for frying many foods and adds a lot of calories. Supplied by EU.
And for the younger and less experienced volunteers, World War 2 pattern revolvers and ammo. An old style revolver is said to be simple to use by the inexperienced. Many older children and housewives are carrying these.

Eagerly awaited are portable wood burning stoves for basic heating of fortified positions and civilian shelters.

[Vortex2]

EEK!

I hope this isn't true .. but I just heard a comment by a YouTuber that he had heard of an NHS appointment being cancelled .. because the hospital was being converted to a military hospital.